Back to back games with expansion teams?

Given the Flames propensity to drop contests to newbies, that's out of the question.

A repeat of last year, with back to back home dates with Western Conference powerhouses Detroit and Colorado?

Talk about a no-win situation.

How about entertaining their Weight-less, hated Alberta rivals the Edmonton Oilers?

Now you're talking.

A kick-off game that could define an entire season, against an opponent playing it's first game without it's leader for a decade.

Win the game and the Flames have already done something they couldn't do all of last season, beat the Oilers.

Drop the game, and it's "here we go again" time in Calgary.

No pressure.

Truth be told the Edmonton game is just that, one game, and one game does not a season make.

However, the single biggest factor with the Flames tough starts of late has been pressure, and losing that first game will once again pile it on.

Last season the Flames were clearly holding the stick very tightly in game three against the expansion Columbus Blue Jackets. There shouldn't have been a high level of shame in dropping their first two games to Detroit and Colorado, but going oh for three is exactly what the team was hoping to avoid.

Matters were made worse when the Oilers defeated the Wings, and tied the Avalanche the very same week.

So how does this year's schedule compare to last year's atrocity?

Last season the Flames had a balanced first month playing the league's top ten teams four times, as well as four against the middle group, and the same number against the league's weakest chapters.

They finished the month a disappointing 3-8-1, essentially eliminating their chances at making the playoffs, before the season was really underway.

The loss total was compounded by the fact the team went an unacceptable 0-3-0 against their division opponents, with losses to Colorado, Vancouver and Minnesota.

Sadly, had the Flames taken two of three against the conference's three worst teams (Anaheim, Columbus and Minnesota), their record would have been 5-6-1, likely giving them a chance at the playoffs, and Don Hay a secure job.

The margin is that small between success and failure.

So how does October 2001 compare?

The Flames once again play 12 games in October.

They only have three games against last year's top ten teams, with five against the middle group, and four against a group comprised of teams missing last year's playoffs.

They have two games within their own division, the season opener to the Edmonton Oilers, and a late October meeting with the Minnesota Wild.

Nine of the twelve games come against teams within ten positions of the Flames in last year's standings.

The month is well designed for a team looking to get back into the playoffs, but they have to win the games.

When a National Hockey League has failed to make the playoffs for the fifth straight season, there are plenty of games that didn't turn out as many a fan would have wished.

However, there are some noticeable points to the Flames season that played a large role in keeping them from playing deep into April.

The fact that the Flames were only four games under .500 in 26 games against the league's elite bodes well for the team, until you notice they were seven games under .500 against the middle group, and had only two more wins than losses against the poorer clubs.

It all comes down to consistency.

When one of the elite teams were on the agenda the Flames brought their "A" game. The fear of getting blown out, had them dig deeper and play a more solid game.

Against the weaker clubs the Flames came out of the gate slowly, and had to battle from behind to earn points.

In comparison the 2000-01 Edmonton Oilers were 13-7-5 against the league's ten worst teams, and an impressive 15-9-6-1 against the NHL's average teams.

The league is laced with parity, any team can beat another on any given night, but a team that sat 20^th overall last season has to find a way to win the majority of their games against the teams behind them.

Take the 8^th place Vancouver Canucks last season.

The Canucks feasted on the lower and middle classes but got their lunch handed to them when they played the big boys. Vancouver was 15-6-4-1 (67% of the possible points) against the weak sisters, 14-7-6-3 (62% of the possible points) against the middle teams, but an unimpressive 7-15-1-3 (35% of the possible points against the league's best.

The Flames actually faired better than the top teams in the NHL.

Applying the Canucks 8^th place percentages to the Flames October schedule the results would hopefully shake out similar to the following.

In the four games against the weaker teams (Minnesota, Chicago twice and Florida), the Flames would be after 67% of the possible eight points. That would translate into a record of 3-1-0 or 2-1-1. Three of these four games are on home ice.

In the five games against the league's middle class (Edmonton, Nashville twice, Phoenix, and Toronto) the Flames would be after 62% of the possible ten points, or six total points. A record like 3-2-0 or 2-1-2 would be all that was required. Four of these five games are on home ice.

Finally in the three remaining games against St. Louis, Dallas and Detroit the Flames would be after only two more points, or a record of 1-2-0. All these games are on the road.

The month's combined record based on percentages? An impressive 7-5-0, or a start that will have this franchise on the way for the first time in five years.

Easy right?

All that's left is to convince the opposition to play along.

The weighting of home games would usually suggest the above is quite possible, but the Flames would have to dramatically improve their home record from last season to get the job done.

A topic left for a whole other article.