We pointed out how some teams have had better luck than others in finding talent, by acquiring numerous players that at least play at the NHL level; or in other words, finding assets to bring into the organization.

 

But is that a fair comparison on it's own?

 

Shouldn't draft position come into the equation?

 

A team like the Detroit Red Wings were dominant from start to finish through the ten years used in this study ('92 to 2001). The Wings had a season point total of 93 or greater points in each of these years ('94 adjusted for lockout), drafting well down the list each and every June.

 

It would be more than understandable for the Detroit Red Wings to sit near the bottom in terms of draft talent mined in this time period when you factor in the number of picks they've traded, and the average draft position over this time period.

 

On the other hand, a team like the Ottawa Senators has a hugely successful run of draft talent over this time period, but they also had the advantage of sitting at the very bottom of the league standings for many a season. With a draft position so high, they should have found talent, and they did.

 

The table to the right looks at the average absolute draft position for each of the NHL's 30 franchises through four rounds of drafting in ten years. A team that is set to draft say 10th in any draft year would likely have the 10th, 40th, 70th and 100th selections in a draft, for an average of 55.0 for comparisons sake.

 

Therefore, clubs to the right that have an average of 55.0 or less have either drafted on average in the first ten picks each year, or have acquired additional picks high up the draft to skew their position average.

 

Conversely, teams with average draft positions in the sixties or seventies have either drafted well down the list each year, or have acquired additional 2nd, 3rd or 4th round picks to make their average higher.

 

A look at the top of the list shows a who's who of struggling clubs through this time period. Teams like the Islanders, Oilers, Lightening or Mighty Ducks have all missed at least four seasons of playoff action, and most have missed more.

 

A look to the bottom of the list shows the opposite with teams like St. Louis, Detroit and Pittsburgh having had dominant runs through the ten year time frame.

 

Some teams have bucked the trend and don't appear in the area of the table that you'd expect. The Calgary Flames sit 18th in draft position even though they missed the playoffs for the last five years of this study. This occurred due to a dominant run at the beginning of this time frame, and the club's tendency to stock pile 3rd and 4th round picks.

 

Bringing in the Talent

 

So which teams do bring in the most talent on a regular basis?

 

The table to the left shows the average drafted player for each organization that have taken in part in at least eight drafts over this time period.

 

A few things stand out on first glance.

 

First, the top drafting clubs in this ranking all had periods of extended losing through this time period, landing themselves some very high picks. With the exception of Carolina in this group, every one of these top clubs made the playoffs this past season, and Carolina is only one year removed from the cup finals.

Clearly this group used their picks to turn their franchises around, at least to some degree.

 

The draft record of the Colorado Avalanche and New Jersey Devils is once again amazing as they had very competitive decades, but very good draft records nonetheless.

 

Teams like the New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks, Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames had some very high picks, but didn't haul in the appropriate talent.

 

The second thing that stands out is just how ordinary these numbers really are. The Islanders have the NHL's best haul with an average of 2.3? That's just a notch or two above a depth player in their organization. They didn't have a single drat year where they averaged greater than 2.9.

 

First Round Dominance

 

Most drafts are judged more on the first round, than

 

The table on the right shows a similar analysis, but just of the first round results over ten years. Each club is displayed with their average drafted first round talent, and the number of players rated over 4.0, 3.0 and 2.0.

 

Similarly, teams with strings of losing seasons tend to migrate to the top as expected. The Ottawa Senators have averaged 3.4 through ten seasons of drafting, including nine players with a grade of 3.0 or greater (average or better hockey player). Hard not to challenge when you've literally managed to draft half a hockey team in 10 years.

 

At the bottom end of the spectrum you have the Detroit Red Wings, a perennial powerhouse that has had to draft at or near the bottom each season.

 

It's interesting to note that the top ten clubs in first round draft accuracy seem to have a slightly above average player, while the botton third of the team's tend to draft a depth player or bottom roster player. The first round is literally, not all it's cracked up to be.

 

Handicapping Draft Skills

 

Since we've established a great disparity both in talent drafted and the opportunity afforded each club in terms of draft position, the next logical step is to bring the two together.

 

If we take the draft position rank and compare it to a draft result rank, we get a differential between the indices for each National Hockey League club.

 

For example, the Detroit Red Wings have the 26th ranked talent amassed over this time period. In terms of draft position they have the 25th best drafting situation from 1992 to 2001 when the four most recent expansion teams are eliminated from the mix.

 

A 26th ranked draft result compared to a 25th ranked draft position would leave the Detroit Red Wings with a +1 differential over four rounds of entry drafts in a 10 year period. Little changes when looking only at the first round, as the Wings once again have a +1 draft differential.

 

The table below looks at each club's draft differential, both in terms of four rounds of drafting, but also just looking at the first round.

 

As expected some surprise teams leap to the top.

 

Put up your hands; how many of you would have had the Philadelphia Flyers as the best relative first round talent speculators in the NHL from 1992 to 2001? Me neither. But with a an average first round player of 2.8 and an average draft position of 19.8 overall, the Flyers have managed to leap 14 spots in relative draft success (22nd position - 8th best talent).

 

It's interesting to note that the top eight ranked first round experts, on a relative basis, have all had a fair deal of success of late. The top five clubs have all had draft positions in the late teens or early 20's. 

 

At the bottom end of the scale you see the Edmonton Oilers at -19, a club that has had a miserable first round record (25th ranked talent out of 26 teams), despite having the 6th best draft position over this time period. If not for some of the shrewd trade moves by both Glen Sather and Kevin Lowe, this franchise could have set all time futility records.

 

The other Alberta team, the Flames, have the 19th best first round differential with a -4, a number comprised of the 13th best first round talent and the 9th best draft position. Coincidentally, the club is slated to draft 9th this weekend.

 

The Flames record of 13th in talent seems a little high given the club's bleak decade just witnessed, and it may be inflated by the fact that Flames fans are submitting a slightly optimistic future for recent draft choices in 2000 and 2001. The trend to give more credit to recent drafts is consistent throughout the analysis, however, as most teams seems to be given the benefit of the doubt in the two most recent drafts. Edmonton for example, received a 3.7 rating for Ales Hemsky in 2001, a number that could be true in a season or two, but is certainly premature at this date.

 

The four round table looks very similar to the first round table, with a few exceptions. The Carolina Hurricanes lead the way with a positive 19 differential driven by the 4th best talent found with the 23rd best draft position (average of all four rounds). Once again a lot of top clubs have a positive draft differential.

 

At the bottom again you'll find the Edmonton Oilers with a -17 differential stemming from the 2nd best draft position, but 19the best talent haul. 

 

The Calgary Flames sit 9th with the 13th best value gleamed from the 16th best draft position for a differential of +3. Their player talent averaged 1.9 for this time period.

 

As Saturday Nears ...

 

With this year's edition of the NHL Entry Draft now only four days away, the above study suggests a very difficult task for the league's 30 franchises.

 

Each team will make their way up to the podium in the first round, make their selection, place a ball cap and a jersey on an 18 year old, and then proceed to tell the media how happy they are that they got "their guy". In a few seasons we'll find out that most of these clubs really shouldn't have been that happy, as the first round only generates seven average or better players per draft, and only two of these seven go on to be impact players. That's two out of 30 hockey players.

 

The real measuring stick for this entry draft will come three to six years later when we see how the clubs did through the entire draft. 

 

Drafting star players may be the aim of the proceedings, but finding assets is the separator between Stanley Cup reality and season after season of disappointment.

 

Fail to find two or three players that "play" on too many draft days, and you'll find yourself out of the playoff picture for many seasons to come.

 

Successful clubs bring their best on the ice when it counts, but their scouts bring their best in the summer, when it really, really counts.