Something happens to the National Hockey League around the same time people all over the world scribble out last year's date in frustration on check blanks.

As the calendar turns to a New Year things get very serious.

Top teams with first half struggles seem to find that zone, first half pretenders can hit a proverbial wall and fall off the face of the Earth.

With 30 National Hockey League entries and only 16 playoff spots the race is on and 47% of these squads will come up empty, nearly half the league's population.

On this mild January morning the Flames sit in 8th spot in the West, though like an annual right of passage, injuries continue to mount.

Where will they be when the sun sets on a season that once appeared so bright?

There is a lot of hockey to be played, with unlimited permutations of final standings possible, but with less than 40 games left Calgarypuck.com attempts to handicap the West.

Things have, for the most part, settled back to normal since.

The Calgary Flames have fallen off while the aforementioned contenders have closed the gap considerably. Chicago and Edmonton continue to make noise by defying all pundits and sticking in the hunt.

As it stands only six points separate the 8th place Flames from the third place Oilers, suggesting most of these teams could finish anywhere from 3rd to 10th in the conference.

It's that close.

I would suggest only Detroit and Chicago look to be on their way to a stress free playoff finish, since they are a cut above the rest.

At Calgarypuck.com we pride ourselves on taking a different look at statistics or standings that would otherwise appear mundane.

The standings are for the most part a snap shot of point rankings of teams with little in the way of further analysis unless you break into how the points were achieved.

Historically, home teams have always had a distinct advantage over the visitors and that is again true in the West this year. The combined home winning percentage of all West teams sits at .628, while road teams sit at .447 (they don't add to one given the presence of overtime loss points), a difference of 18%.

Therefore a team with a great home record and a positive imbalance of home games to road games within their remaining schedule would have a marked advantage.

The graph to the left shows the current and projected standings for each of the West's teams using home and road winning percentages to determine the final standings.

Notice the expected teams have risen completely to the top leaving only Chicago among the surprise teams.

The Oilers fall back down to the sixth position (albeit only two points out of a much higher spot), the position they held down in last year's playoffs, while San Jose, St. Louis and Chicago all rise to the top to fill out the remainder of the top five spots.

Conspicuously absent from this group are the Dallas Stars, who remain in the 7th spot as they sit today.

The Calgary Flames, based on this analysis, also remain where they stand, in 8th spot with a successful season total of 90 points. As it sits the Flames are on pace to make the playoffs by a fairly comfortable five points.

The above analysis is very tidy and acts as an excellent tool for discussion but the games are played on the ice, as we all know.

The Calgary Flames may project favourably to 90 points, but the brunt of that strength in numbers was acquired with their great October and November, not their play in recent weeks. To suggest the Flames will finish on a pace similar to today is quite likely very optimistic especially considering the team's hellish Briar trip coming in March.

Therefore it could be a handy to take a closer look at teams trailing the Flames and the records they will need to surpass the local squad.

Tossing home and road records out the Flames are on pace for 92 points, but that number is inflated since the team has played three less road games to date. Therefore the true pace of the Flames is in fact 90 points.

If they do reach 90 points the following teams will need the following records in order to catch up and overtake the Flames.

Things can change of course, but the above records would be very difficult to obtain for teams sitting out of the playoffs to this point in the season. Basically, should the Flames manage to hit the 90-point mark they are in charge of their own destiny.

A less ambitious pace by the Flames would, of course, bring the teams behind them marginally closer. The records below would be needed to over take the Flames should the Flames play .500 hockey from this point on and end up with 87 points.

Under this scenario only LA and Phoenix would be true threats to the Flames playoff hopes, as the other teams would require upper echelon paces to make any noise. The Kings needing six more wins than losses down the stretch could be seen as the biggest obstacle to the Flames return to playoff action.

What type of finish can we expect should the Flames continue to slip a bit down the stretch, winning three less games than they lose for instance? The team records below would catch the Flames on an 84 point pace.

Once again it appears only LA and Phoenix are in the hunt in this scenario, with modest winning records from each creating a rather large head ache for a Flames squad at 84 points.

The most intriquing team in all three scenarios is the Vancouver Canucks, the biggest victim in the home and away determination of final standings. The Canucks are eight points out to date, but project to 16 points out because they have a miserable .326 winning percentage on the road.

One of the greatest challenges in looking objectively at NHL standings is the absence of perspective.

Fans and media from a city like Calgary, with an NHL team that has been on the outside looking in for several years, tend to give more credit to the chasing teams and little credit to their own squad.

The key is to remember life from the other side.

In each of the past few seasons the Flames have sat in 10th, 11th or 12th only to get hot at a point in the season and close the gap on teams holding down playoff spots. These runs always resulted in an accompanying skid to put the team back where they likely belonged, out of the playoffs. The same could easily be true for the LA Kings who have made some serious hay over the past few weeks.

Any team sitting between 6th and 10th is a key injury away from pretty much writing off their season.

It's still a long way to the finish line, but for once the home side is in the race.