The Flames scored more than three goals!
In fact they scored more than four for the first time since October in a 5-2, relatively easy, victory in Chicago on Monday night.
The Flames were fueled by Jakob Pelletier with two goals and an assist, two helpers from the NHL debuting Rory Kerins, and another solid night from Dustin Wolf.
The win moves the Flames into a playoff spot in points and win percentage, leap frogging the Vancouver Canucks.
Playoff spot in mid January. Nobody saw this coming.
The Lineup
With Rory Kerins getting some practice reps over the past few days, it appears the Flames (Huska) is ready to insert him into the lineup. Coming out to make room isn’t Walker Duehr though, it’s Andrei Kuzmenko. And it appears the Flames have a number one goaltender.
No change at the top; Nazem Kadri between Jonathan Huberdeau and Martin Pospisil, Mikael Backlund back with Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato. A change to the third line with Yegor Sharangovich between the NHL debuting Rory Kerins and Jakob Pelletier, and a fourth line of Kevin Rooney with Ryan Lomberg and Walker Duehr.
One the blueline zero change as it appears the Flames have found a six they’re really happy with. So it’s Rasmus Andersson and Kevin Bahl, Mackenzie Weegar with Joel Hanley and Jake Bean with Brayden Pachal on the third pairing.
Dustin Wolf with the start in goal, as he starts his fourth straight game.
Pre Game Stats Dive
Taking a look at some play driving metrics for the forwards and defensemen at the half way point.
I’ve omitted players with significantly less games played to make the rankings more meaningful. Up front that means no more Anthony Mantha, and on the blueline I dropped Tyson Barrie.
Driving Offence:
| Player | xGF60 |
| Jakob Pelletier | 3.25 |
| Blake Coleman | 2.75 |
| Connor Zary | 2.71 |
| Mikael Backlund | 2.61 |
| Matt Coronato | 2.56 |
Two interesting tidbits there; 1) Jakob Pelletier continues to have off the charts expected goal creation despite his line not scoring. It was one thing to see him high up the list on a handful of games sample size, but now he’s at 15 games played. Continues to stick a half goal above his teammates. 2) Matt Coronato’s breakout is the furthest thing from a fluke. Additionally look at the Backlund line in the top five … himself, Coleman and their two wingers this season. Year after year play driving.
| Player | xGF60 |
| Jake Bean | 2.53 |
| Joel Hanley | 2.44 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 2.42 |
| Brayden Pachal | 2.40 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 2.37 |
On the blueline … an incredibly tight grouping from all 7 defensemen.
Preventing Offence:
On the other side of the puck …
| Player | xGA60 |
| Martin Pospisil | 2.12 |
| Andrei Kuzmenko | 2.17 |
| Mikael Backlund | 2.24 |
| Matt Coronato | 2.26 |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 2.26 |
Kuzmenko and Sharangovich are a hot mess when it comes to goal scoring this season, but they’re certainly not getting out played game in and game out. And look at Mr Coronato again!
| Player | xGA60 |
| Joel Hanley | 1.70 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 2.19 |
| Brayden Pachal | 2.33 |
| Jake Bean | 2.40 |
| Kevin Bahl | 2.46 |
The Hanley/Weegar pairing are something to watch. A month of shut down hockey together has them moving up the list quickly (Hanley with less sample size, and Weegar moving slowly up the list).
Wrangler’s Watch
The Wrangler’s got pumped by Colorado twice in the last handful of days with scores of 5-2 and 7-2.
They just don’t have the horses anymore with Flame recalls.
The team was in 1st place all fall in the entire AHL, now they’ve fallen to 7th spot in win percentage.
They’re not getting Coronato or Pelletier back.
How long will Rory Kerins be up? We’ll start to find out tonight.
Kerin’s First Game
Tough to start better than that!
Gets an assist about 14 seconds into his NHL career by dropping the puck to Jakob Pelletier and then going to the net.
Then on about shift four he bounces a puck off the wall to Kevin Bahl on the point who puts it on, only to have Pelletier score his second of the night, awarding Rory Kerins with his 2nd NHL point (assist).
The thing I look for in young players is their touches. They don’t all have to end in a point or a scoring chance, but can the puck come to the player and have him find a place for it calmly. Kerins looked pretty calm.
The sample size is tiny, and the opponent level will rise but he’s done job one; prove he should get another one.
Wolf’s Start
It’s Chicago right?
So yeah not a whole lot to do.
But when the Flames did break down he was forced to make some key saves.
At the end of the night Chicago with 2.2 expected goals in all situations, and he gave up two even.
Another solid start for Dustin Wolf.
Odds and Sods
Man Chicago is just bad. Really, really bad. The Flames were all over them in the first five minutes of the game, running up a 6-0 shot advantage and a 1-0 lead. Give them credit for getting back on their feet and back into the game, but the Flames pretty much ran over them in the first 20 minutes. … Got a kick out of the Prime audio catching Jakob Pelletier giggling after both of his goals. Guy has so much energy. Infectious. He grabbed the puck quickly for Kerins after his first goal as well. … Can’t ignore the run of starts for Dustin Wolf. Don’t think the Flames are going to be “acquire someone” serious about a playoff spot, but their goalie choices are telling you they’re going for it in my opinion. … Just can’t say enough of Matt Coronato these days. He’s been amazing. Takes the line with speed, stops up, beats a Hawk defender, dishes, then goes to the tough area and out muscles the opponent for the goal. On a roll. … Game kind of felt over after 20 minutes, but when Martin Pospisil took his five minute major it had that feeling of a turning point. The Hawks score quickly (Bedard) on the five minute major and with that it was a two goal game with four more minutes of powerplay time. Nope. Calgary scores shorthanded to pretty much put the game away. … The Pospisil hit certainly deserved five minutes. That was a dangerous play, and a very poor decision. … Hoping the Sharangovich shorthanded goal unlocks the player. His underlying numbers suggest the math is on his side; he just needed a puck to go in. … Have to keep adjusting my feel for who Dustin Wolf is. I went from not sure, to clearly seeing NHL goalie, to seeing starter, to seeing above average. Now I’m pretty much expecting an elite goaltender at the NHL level. Quite the rise. … The Pelletier story just gets better and better. From waiver fodder to rebuilding his game in the AHL, gaining a regular spot back with the Flames, generating solid under lying numbers, and then tonight a three point night with two goals and an assist.
Fancy Stats
This one was never very close. The Flames took charge in the first five minutes and didn’t really let up until the third period where score effects took hold. Solid road game for the Flames against a sub par opponent. The Flames, five on five, had 56% (62%/59%/43%) of the shot attempts, 58% of the high danger chances, and 60% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 57% of the shot attempts, 58% of the high danger chances and 60% of the expected goals.
Individually, the Flames were led by Rasmus Andersson posting an xGF% of 73% on the night. His defense partner Kevin Bahl was just behind at 71%. Many players in the 60s; including Blake Coleman, Jonathan Huberdeau, Mikael Backlund, Jakob Pelletier, Jake Bean, Matt Coronato, Nazem Kadri and Rory Kerins. Only five players under water on the night; Joel Hanley, Martin Pospisil, Ryan Lomberg, Mackenzie Weegar, and Walker Duehr.
