Are the Flames taking on water?
They haven’t scored more than 3 goals in now 21 games, their goaltending is ever so slightly adjusting down towards average, and with that we have a winless road trip against teams you’d like to beat if you have your eyes on a playoff spot.
Today they spotted the Columbus Blue Jackets a 3-0 lead early in the second period, a deficit they couldn’t overcome in dropping a fight filled 5-2 contest in Ohio this afternoon.
The loss puts the Flames at 0-2-1 on a four game road trip with their final contest tomorrow against the desperate Pittsburgh Penguins.
The Lineup
The Flames dropped a game in Ottawa so you’d expect some change. So I’m somewhat surprised that the only change is in goal. With the way the fourth line got filled in in Ottawa I thought we’d see a Adam Klapka appearance certainly. Not the case.
Connor Zary up the middle between Jonathan Huberdeau and Blake Coleman, Nazem Kadri with Andrei Kuzmenko and Martin Pospisil, Mikael Backlund between Yegor Sharangovich and Matt Coronato, and Kevin Rooney with Justin Kirkland and Ryan Lomberg.
One the blueline we see Rasmus Andersson and Kevin Bahl. Mackenzie Weegar with Daniil Miromanov. And Joel Hanley gets back to back games, lining up with Brayden Pachal on the third pairing.
Dan Vladar gets the start, coming off a victory at home against the Minnesota Wild.
Pre Game Stats
With the Flames now into their third 10 game segment a refresher on team five on five trends and the direction the club seems to be headed.
Simple Corsi:
- 1-10 47.0%
- 11-20 52.6%
- 21-23 47.2%
Expected Goals:
- 1-10 47.8%
- 11-20 48.7%
- 21-23 48.1%
Very flat in expected goals, and always under water
High Danger Splits:
- 1-10 50.3% (10.4/60 against)
- 11-20 49.7% (9.7/60 against)
- 21-23 46.2% (9.0/60 against)
Going the wrong way in splits, but getting better in prevention. Their high danger for is slipping … 10.5 to 9.6 to 7.7.
Save Percentage:
- 1-10 93.3%
- 11-20 95.2%
- 21-23 94.6%
Shooting Percentage:
- 1-10 8.7%
- 11-20 5.8%
- 21-23 3.6%
Here is the biggest issue. Their goaltending is holding on, but they are creating less and less high danger as the season goes along and with that their five on five shooting percentage is falling apart. Part of that is system too though. If you start playing a high prevention game, you cheat less, and with that create less.
Prospect News
Zayne Parekh in the news again this week, but not for scoring exploits.
He had his stick get into the face of an opponent this week in a runaway loss, but was also the recipient of a slash that resulted in 5 minutes, a game and then an eight game suspension to Long Knights’ Ryder Boulton.
Quite the two hander! (https://chl.ca/ohl/article/knights-ryder-boulton-suspended-for-eight-games/)
Could have easily done some damage.
Wolf’s Start
Hard to blame the guy.
No chance on goals 1, 2, or 4 … he played a role in goal 3 for sure.
Jackets were credited with 3.75 in expected goals in all situations, and they got four past Wolf … so solid night for Flames goaltending again. Not first star material, but certainly not a problem.
That is four straight games where actual goals against have exceeded expected goals against. Calgary goaltending sliding to the mean a touch?
Ubiquitous Roster Decisions
Super interesting to see how Ryan Huska has handled his roster decisions this year.
Up front we see all kinds of change in the lines, but very little change in the 12 skaters every night.
On the blueline it’s almost zero change to the top 5 and how they line up (top four in pairs that don’t change and Pachal in every game), but then a rotation for player number six. And I don’t mean game in game out. Two weeks ago it looked like Tyson Barrie wrested the job away. Then Jake Bean had the spot for a week. Now it’s the completely forgotten guy in Joel Hanley who has come back from the dead and now played four straight
Odds and Sods
I mentioned in the Wings game that Matt Coronato had a rough night in terms of things just not working out. He was in the right spots but things didn’t pan. Many touches that didn’t go his way. Certainly a better start in this afternoon’s game as he was excellent on a first period cycle. … A tale of two periods within a period for the first today. Calgary looked ready to go early and had the better of the play, and then a Nazem Kadri penalty seemed to flip the script as they were terrible the rest of the way and only had Wolf from having the game decided in the first 20. … Was interesting to watch Martin Pospisil come to Andrei Kuzmenko’s honour with a second period fight and then does the same against a heavyweight later in the period when Hanley gets smoked. Some have felt his fight earlier this season was part of the reason that just doesn’t seem to be the player we saw last year. Clearly no trepidation in stepping in today. … I know I’m not alone, but I’ll never be happy seeing Sean Monahan in another jersey. Such a good guy. Wish he had better injury luck with the Flames towards the end of his tenure. … One Monahan thing I’ll never understand is his shield. What’s the point? … And yet another fight with Lomberg going with Olivier as well. Brave little dude. And tough. … Justin Kirkland left the game and didn’t return. Adam Klapka up front on this trip. … I thought Weegar got his stick in on Merzlikins when I saw the goaltender snap, but the replay shows he didn’t. Took a poke when the puck was wide open, but didn’t put another attempt into his legs after. … Speaking of Weegar, the Flames have some veterans really fighting the puck. Weegar has had a rough road trip, but so to has Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri. …
Fancy Stats
Certainly some score affects in play, but the Flames finished better than the Jackets in all five on five categories and were likely the better team in the second half of the game (down three goals). The Flames, five on five, had 52% (44%/58%/59%) of the shot attempts, 62% of the high danger chances, and 52% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 53% of the shot attempts, 61% of the high danger chances and 43% of the expected goals. The Jackets powerplay was 5 times more effective than the Flames unit in terms of expected goals created.
Individually, the Flames were led by Martin with a xGF% of 82% on the night in limited ice time with two fighting majors. Three players were in the 60s; Rasmus Andersson, Joel Hanley and Nazem Kadri. The entire fourth line was under 30% on the night, Kirkland getting a pass with only a minute of ice time.
