Wheels coming off?
The Calgary Flames dropped their third straight on the season after going six games to start the season without a regulation loss.
Tonight they had a good start, and a solid road first period, but were then outclassed the rest of the way in a laugher; a 5-0 Knight win in Vegas on Monday night.
A good start to the season, but you can’t hide what you have or what you are. The Flames haven’t been good in their last five, and they’re starting to get the results you’d expect.
The Lineup
The Flames are getting healthy, and with that we are seeing some changes like the Matt Coronato demotion (and subsequent X tweet and untweet saga). Another one is coming when they activate Sam Honzek. And they’re still carrying 8 defensemen.
Tonight not as much change to the starting configuration; Nazem Kadri and Andrei Kuzmenko with Yegor Sharangovich, Martin Pospisil between Jonathan Huberdeau and Anthony Mantha and Mikael Backlund with Blake Coleman and Connor Zary. The fourth line Kevin Rooney centers Ryan Lomberg and Justin Kirkland.
On the blueline no change so look for Mackenzie Weegar pairing with Daniil Miromanov, Rasmus Andersson with Kevin Bahl, and Jake Bean remains out for Joel Hanley, who is paired up with Brendan Pachal.
Dan Vladar gets the start (rotation remains in place).
Pre Game Stats
The Flames have played eight games, but the last four don’t really resemble the first four.
Splits:
Shots on goal – First 4 games 48% / Last 4 games 43%
Expected goals – First 4 games 50% / Last 4 games 48%
High Danger Splits – First 4 games 56% / Last 4 games 46%
This isn’t to say there’s a slip in their game. I think it more likely a) teams are taking them more seriously b) NHL work ethic is ramping up and c) a tougher schedule.
The big change is a sag to the offence as the Flames had 44 high danger shot attempts in the first four games, but only 31 in the last four games.
Vladar’s Start
Calgary was outplayed in this one, especially after the first period so it wasn’t an easy night for Dan Vladar by any means.
I wouldn’t say he had much of a chance on any of the goals against him, but it was a low event game (only ten high danger chances combined in all situations) for the most part and with that his differentials didn’t reflect a great game.
But the stats just don’t add up to me. Vegas with an expected goals edge of 2.6 to 1.35 in a game that felt much more like a 5-2 game by chances.
Bottom line Vladar gives up 5 against a 2.6 expected and his stats will slide.
Zary Stands Out
Another great game for Connor Zary.
No points.
Big lopsided loss.
But individually no single player created more opportunities and was more noticeable shift to shift than Connor Zary.
They better lock this kid up.
On the Farm
Wranglers just keep on rolling.
Two more wins and now a 7-1-0 record in the AHL standings, good for 1st overall in the league.
Rory Kerins and Jakob Pelletier remain near the top of league scoring, both with 10 points in eight games, and trailing only Vinnie Hinostroza who is 30 years old.
In the net, Devin Cooley’s .949 save percentage is 10th in the league, trailing goaltenders that all have less starts and only two really close in starts (Cooley has 6 starts, and 6 of the 8 goaltenders ahead of him have three or less).
Odds and Sods
Another good start for the Flames, as they were the better team for much of the first ten minutes despite being down 1-0. All three of the top three lines engaged, working the cycle and making it tough for the Vegas defenders. … Probably a good thing from a Calgary standpoint, but very low event first period for both clubs. … I get the size. I get the position.dd I get the right shot, but did anyone really feel a huge loss when Cole Schwindt was taken on waivers by the Knights? Added to the lack of disappointment was the avoidance of Jakob Pelletier getting taken as another option, but in the end I just don’t see a player with a lot of top nine upside. … Calgary’s good start evaporates quickly when the second period starts, as the team proceeds to turn the puck over about 10 times in the first 3.5 minutes. Brayden Pachal victimized twice, including the eventual stinger with Mark Stone doing the honours. Rough couple of minutes for the third defense pairing in particular. … Calgary finally finds some gumption in the last few minutes of the second period but that was pretty much it for the middle frame. … If you want a bright spot in this one it’s the Mikael Backlund line. Off the charts metrics, as pretty much every shift they were on the ice was dominant for the guys in white. All three players control entries and the cycle very effectively. … Man is Tomas Hertl invisible in Vegas. Didn’t even see him until the third period. … Love me some Kevin Bahl but what was he doing behind the net on the Vegas third goal? …
Fancy Stats
The Flames had a plucky first period, which can be seen in the stats. But were then run over, which can also be seen in the stats. The Flames, five on five, had 46% (52%/44%/44%) of the shot attempts, 33% of the high danger chances, and 31% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 46% of the shot attempts, 40% of the high danger chances and 34% of the expected goals.
Individually, the Flames were led by Daniil Miromanov in his return to Vegas with an xGF% of 68%. He was joined in the 60s by Blake Coleman. Only three other players were above the break even mark; Anthony Mantha, Mikael Backlund and Jonathan Huberdeau. At the bottom it’s Justin Kirkland with a 0% night.
