Sometimes you play well but don’t get the points.
We saw that in the Flames recent road trip with solid efforts in all three cities, but only two loser points to show for their efforts.
Tonight though, the opposite … a relatively complacent home effort against the Florida Panthers, but a first star lap from goaltender Jacob Markstrom in his return from a two week absence with a broken finger the difference in a 3-1 win.
The Flames score two third period short handed goals to break a 1-1 tie, that’s five shorthanded goals in seven games for a team that can’t buy a powerplay goal.
Such a strange season.
The Lineup
The Flames back on home ice have two familiar faces rejoining their crew.
Jacob Markstrom returns after a broken finger injury and starts the game, after missing just under two weeks. Dustion Wolf has been assigned to make room.
Additionally Chris Tanev returns, which is a great sign given the look of that hit from behind in Denver last week. You just never know with head injuries.
No change up front; Elias Lindholm with Andrew Mangiapane and Yegor Sharangovich, Nazem Kadri with Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil, Mikael Backlund with Jonathan Huberdeau and Blake Coleman, and finally Adam Ruzicka between AJ Greer and Dillon Dube.
One the blueline it’s Tanev back with Noah Hanifin, Mackenzie Weegar with Rasmus Andersson and finally Dennis Gilbert with Nick DeSimone.
Line Metrics Coming In
xGF%
Mangiapane – Lindholm – Sharangovich 47.0%
Huberdeau – Backlund – Coleman 50.0%
Zary – Kadri – Pospisil 64.8%
Greer – Ruzicka – Dube 45.3%
Weegar – Andersson 49.2%
Hanifin – Tanev 57.1%
Gilbert – DeSimone 68.8%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +2.2
Vladar -4.6
Wolf -5.2
Trend Tracker
Last game we looked at the powerplay.
Tonight it’s the penalty kill on tap.
The Flames have the 9th best penalty killing unit in the National Hockey League. Earlier in the season they were the top 1-3 group but with terrible underlying numbers suggesting they were lucky and saved by Jacob Markstrom.
Now a third of the way into the season not much has changed.
The Flame are one of the league’s least penalized teams with only 4:47 of time short per game. the top team is 4:22. The Flames are ranked 4th in this category.
They give up 6.87 goals per 60 minutes or roughly half a goal per game based on their time short average.
By chance weighting they have the 6th highest expected goals against per 60 minutes at 9.52 meaning the Calgary goaltending helps them to the tune of almost three goals every 60 minutes.
They have the 8th best team goaltending save percentage when down a man at .887.
Markstrom Start
What can you say?
Clearly the best player on the ice for either team in his return from a 13 day absence with a broken finger.
The Panthers were the better team from the 5 minute mark of the first period to the 35 minute mark of the hockey game. If not for Calgary’s goaltender in that 30 minute stretch this one is a laugher.
The stats read 3.80 expected goals against versus just one on the board pretty much says it all.
Matthew Tkachuk Return #2
Noticeable night for sure.
Picks up an assist on the only Panther’s goal, and has a 77% xGF night so he was in it.
The bottom line though is a loss and a -2 night (two shorties when he was on the powerplay) and likely not what he was looking for.
Game Flow
Calgary is very good off the hop, it just didn’t last very long. The Flames were up 4-0 in shots and 1-0 on the scoreboard early on a Martin Pospisil goal, but then were badly outplayed for the rest of the period. Florida went on a 15-4 run in shots the rest of the way and were held at bay by Jacob Markstrom until the final 30 seconds. Score 1-1 after one.
The second period started as the first period ended; with Calgary in deep trouble. Way too much time in their own zone and way too much pressure on Jacob Markstrom. At the midway point the shots were 7-1 for the Panthers and once again Markstrom was holding the fort. The Flames were certainly better in the last 6-7 minutes of the period, but neither team score … 1-1 after two.
Way better period for the Flames in the third but that’s not to say they were the better team overall. Five on five an even period, but the Panthers dominate on the powerplay and come empty while the Flames score two short handed goals; one from Mikael Backlund the other from Blake Coleman to put it away. Not how you draw it up, but you take it.
Odds and Sods
So did Jordan Oesterle play with Mackenzie Weegar because he was a better option? Or because he needed more help by way of a veteran to look after his mistakes? You wonder because with Chris Tanev back, it’s Oesterle who comes out of the lineup altogether for tonight’s game. … Can’t blame the officials for missing the Backlund over the glass call at the end of the game, but I wish I saw more of a meeting of the minds between the four officials before just making the call. The puck, off of Backlund’s stick hit Jonathan Huberdeau in the chest and then went over the glass. Shouldn’t have been a penalty. … Man that first 30 seconds of the Panther’s late powerplay had goal written all over it. Three different goal mouth scrambles but the tying goal wasn’t meant to be. … Not a great night for Anythony Stolarz as he gives up two relatively weak backhand goals to Pospisil and Backlund. He was the difference.
Special Teams
Two short handed goals for the Flames wins them the special teams battle despite a brutal 0/5 night with the man advantage.
The Panthers go 1/5 with the powerplay.
The Flames only created 0.40 expected goals per game in almost nine minutes of powerplay time.
Ugly!
Standings and Record
With points in four straight games and two straight wins we look back to the Western Conference playoff race and away from the overall standings and the draft lottery.
Calgary now a point out of a playoff spot despite having two more games played.
Truthfully though at a .484 win percentage they have some work to do as they try and reel in teams that are above .500.
Overall they now sit in the 10th draft spot with their mini streak.
Give them credit, they’re keeping it interesting.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 25 Panthers 34
Face Offs: Flames 39% / Panthers 61%
Powerplay: Flames 0-5 / Panthers 1-5
Fancy Stats
The Flames were outplayed in pretty much every facet of the game, save for running up third period short handed goals for. Their goalie stole won by any measure. Five on five the Flames had 38% of the shot attempts with period splits of 38%/29% and 56% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 40%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 58%, with a 7-5 split.
In all situations the Flames had 38% of the shot attempts, 34% of the expected goals, and 38% of the high danger splits. The all situations expected goal totals came out at 1.98 to 3.80. This was a three goal Panther win disguised as a Flames victory.
Individually the Flames were led by Noah Hanifin posting a xGF% of 81% on the night five on five. Nazem Kadri, Martin Pospisil, Connor Zary and Chris Tanev were all in the 70s and the only other positive players for the Flames. Adam Ruzicka was last place with a 0% night (zero shot attempts for 12 against), but had company with Dillon Dube, Rasmus Andersson and AJ Greer all under 20%.
