For the last month the Flames have moved between two games under .500 and .500 itself.
Never worse. Never better.
Tonight with their fourth loss the Flames move back to three games under .500 for the first time since their win in Montreal on November 15th.
They’ve held serve in the last few weeks, but they’re just not making up any ground on that pace needed to make a push into a playoff spot.
Tonight they take a 5-3 lead into the third period and are doing quite well for the first ten minutes. Then the house of cards come crashing down with the Avalanche scoring three straight goals and skating away with a 6-5 win.
Things don’t get any easier tomorrow night with the team heading into Vegas to play the Cup Champs.
The Lineup
More pieces moving around up front as the Flames look to find a few trios to carry the mail.
The Mikael Backlund line stays in tact, with Backlund centering Johnathan Huberdeau and Blake Coleman. The fourth line is also unchanged with Adam Ruzicka between AJ Greer and Dillon Dube. The other two lines change. Connor Zary moves up to play with Elias Lindholm and Yegor Sharangovich, and Martin Pospisil returns to the lineup to play with his usual center Nazem Kadri and new look left wing Andrew Mangiapane.
On the blueline no change from recent games with Noah Hanifin lining up with Chris Tanev, Mackenzie Weegar playing with Rasmus Andersson and Illya Solovyov playing with Dennis Gilbert.
Dan Vladar, no longer sick, gets the start.
Line Metrics Coming In
xGF%
Zary – Lindholm – Sharangovich
Huberdeau – Backlund – Coleman 50.3%
Mangiapane – Kadri – Pospisil
Greer – Ruzicka – Dube 44.8%
Weegar – Andersson 49.0%
Hanifin – Tanev 57.1%
Solovyov – Gilbert 50.0%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +2.2
Vladar -4.6
Wolf -2.8
Trend Tracker
The Flames had a pretty rough start to the season, that we are all aware of.
Since they’ve gone 9-6-2, which is basically the pace of a wild card team in most seasons.
But what players have carried the mail at five on five in terms of production?
Points:
1. Coleman 10
1. Kadri 10
3. Zary 9
4. Weegar 8
4. Andersson 8
Goals:
1. Zary 4
1. Coleman 4
1. Backlund 4
4. Many
The scoring has been very spread out.
Individual Expected Goals:
1. Coleman 3.77
2. Zary 3.66
3. Pospisil 3.54
4. Huberdeau 3.25
Here’s an interesting one …
Individual High Danger Chances:
1. Greer 17
2. Pospisil 16
3. Coleman 15
4. Mangiapane 15
5. Zary 15
The big note in all that data is the emergence of Connor Zary; he’s just littered through the list of offensive stats in his young tenure in the league.
You’d have to think he’ll hit a wall, but through 16 games of play, he just hasn’t.
Playing With 5 D
The Flames with their core five and say Nikita Zadorov and Oliver Kylington on the third pair could certainly absorb an injury to a defenseman.
With Zadorov traded and Kylington still working his way back that’s just not the case.
And you could certainly see it in young Illya Solovyov’s first period where it looked like he tried to do too much and got caught often.
Didn’t pay for it though, and certainly got better as the game worn on.
The guy that seemed to thrive with the added ice and pressure was Dennis Gilbert though, who I thought had a great game in an elevated role.
Vladar’s Start
Calgary is likely down two or three after that first period without the heroics of Dan Vladar.
The Avalanche had 16 scoring chances and 6 high danger plays in the first period, Vladar only giving up the one goal (Calgary generated nine and three respectively).
The rest of the night he gives up five more and has a sub .900 save percentage in a game where I actually felt he played quite well.
Seems to be the story of the Flames season for all three goaltenders.
Connor Zary …
There is no such thing as a mistake free hockey player. The game is based on mistakes.
But man does Connor Zary have ice in his names for his limited NHL experience.
His goal was pretty calm as he tipped the puck in the air and then batted it home.
But the little plays he makes on the ice throughout a game really add up. If he sees a chip pass in his own zone he makes it. If he doesn’t he quietly eats the puck and reverses the play to keep possession and make sure he gets the puck moving up the ice.
Nobody saw this coming. Nobody.
Flames “core” Has A Night
Further up I highlighted the players that were generating the most offense since the Flames altered their season at the ten game mark.
The lists featured three names very consistently; Nazem Kadri, Blake Coleman and rookie Connor Zary.
Tonight they just keep it rolling. Kadri and Coleman with a goal and an assist each, and Zary with another goal.
Not sure that’s the core we all envisioned when training camp broke this season, but it is what it is.
Game Flow
Not the start you’re looking for if you’re the Flames. They lose their blueline leader just 15 seconds into the game when he’s boarded by Ross Colton, but end up with the only penalty. Calgary kills that off and begins to settle down before taking the lead 2/3 of the way through the period on a Blake Coleman pass to Nazem Kadri. Calgary takes the lead into the last 90 seconds primarily due to some elite goaltending by Dan Vladar before Tatar finally breaks through and ties it for the homeside.
Crazy second period. The Avalanche go ahead and appear to be in complete control. The Flames tie it up on an Andrew Mangiapane goal, a marker that seems to change the game as Calgary scores three more before the end of the period to forge ahead 5-3. The Flames full marks on the shot clock, and in what they were generating for quality.
Flames start out the third in pretty good shape, limiting the Avalanche chances, and keeping the play to the outside for the most part. Calgary gets a mid period powerplay with a chance to put it away, but can’t get untracked. The Avalanche make it closer on a fluke goal by Colton after the puck hit two Calgary shin pads. That goal gave the home team some life so it was only a matter of time until they tied it up and went ahead.
Odds and Sods
Anyone else just assume Ross Colton was getting five and a game when they let him out of the penalty box? Was pretty shocked he got off scott free. Pretty much textbook boarding. … The new lines didn’t last all that long in this one. Chris Tanev doesn’t return throwing the defensive pairs into the blender, but additionally Huska moves Dillon Dube in with Nazem Kadri and Andrew Mangiapane (a line we saw last year), with Pospisil moving down to the fourth line with Greer and Ruzicka. … Nathan MacKinnon had an off night when it came to handling the puck. A few bobbles when it looked like he was going to pull away or shred Calgary’s defense. … Calgary’s second period powerplay was their first in basically two full hockey games dating back to the seven minute mark of the Carolina game. That’s 120+ minutes of zero powerplay time. Unreal. Calgary playing some super clean hockey teams! … Yegor Sharangovich with goals in back to back games. Heading into the Flame’s six game homestand he was on a 20 goal 20 assist season, and looking very much like a Calgary top six. Now after tonight (7 games later) he’s on a 21 goal 21 assist pace. Kids a player. …
Special Teams
The Flames did a heck of a job killing off a pretty deadly Avalanche powerplay, but in the end the Avalanche score the only special teams goal and with that take the special teams battle.
Calgary finished 0/2, the Avalanche 1/4.
Standings and Record
Not a good news section of late.
The Flames move to three games under .500 and are sliding out of it as the games tick by.
Calgary three points out of a playoff spot, their target the Coyotes with Arizona having a game in hand. The bigger issue is the 11th spot perch and the fact that they now have to pass three teams to gain a spot.
By points percentage the Flames now hold down the 6th best lottery odds spot.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 33 Avalanche 37
Face Offs: Flames 47% / Avalanche 53%
Powerplay: Flames 0-2 / Avalanche 1-4
Fancy Stats
Not a fun night for goaltenders as both teams had all kinds of breakdowns and gave up scads of odd man rushes. Five on five the Flames had 45% of the shot attempts with period splits of 45%/47% and 43% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 55%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 56%, with a 14-11 split.
In all situations the Flames had 44% of the shot attempts, 49% of the expected goals, and 53% of the high danger splits. The all situations expected goal totals came out at 3.04 to 3.19.
Individually the Flames were led by Andrew Mangiapane posting a xGF% of 82% on the night five on five. Dillon Dube had a great night as well with 81%. Dennis Gilbert fills in admirably with a 71% night. At the bottom Adam Ruzicka, Noah Hanifin and Connor Zary who were all in the 30s.
