They just can’t keep finding ways to lose games.
Tonight some cobwebs after a long road trip; they hadn’t been on home ice in 21 days, and some spotty goaltending again hands the Wings a 5-2 win at the Saddledome on Thursday night.
But enough is enough.
In this season from hell they just keep finding a way not to put together the streak that’s needed to secure a playoff spot. Not getting a timely save, not getting some finish on a key scoring chance, the blown lead in Ottawa taking away a point, or their horrendous record in both one goal games and overtime and the shoot out.
Just a laundry list of reasons this just isn’t their year.
They’re still in it, but man this just keeps limping along.
The Lineup
Rasmus Andersson is back!
After getting hit by a scooter and missing three games, he’s back tonight and with that the Flames are back to what they seem to feel is their top six defensemen. That’s Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson, Mackenzie Weegar with Chris Tanev and then Nikita Zadorov with Michael Stone.
Up front no change from recent games with Elias Lindholm centering Dillon Dube and Tyler Toffoli, Nazem Kadri between Jakob Pelletier and Jonathan Huberdeau, Mikael Backlund with Andrew Mangiapane and Blake Coleman and finally Trevor Lewis with Milan Lucic and Brett Ritchie.
After the collapse in Ottawa, and that ugly overtime goal, Sutter gives Dan Vladar his second start since the all star break.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Dube – Lindholm – Toffoli 49.5%
Pelletier – Kadri – Huberdeau 68.6%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Coleman 69.0%
Lucic – Lewis – Ritchie 43.8%
Hanifin – Andersson 53.6%
Weegar – Tanev 56.0%
Zadorov – Stone 50.5%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +0.6
Vladar -2.0
Trend Tracker:
Lets talk expected goals against today given the chatter about Mackenzie Weegar being in discussions, and with that the discussion of his value. When you look at defensemen across the league you set a minutes played bar to avoid over valuing a player that hasn’t played as much. That has to be looked at within a team as well, but the numbers are still interesting.
Calgary defensemen for xGA60 (minutes in brackets)
- Dennis Gilbert 1.88 (124 min)
- Nick DeSimone 2.05 (41 min)
- Mackenzie Weegar 2.09 (930 min)
- Chris Tanev 2.10 (703 min)
- Nikita Zadorov 2.30 (861 min)
- Rasmus Andersson 2.55 (902 min)
- Noah Hanifin 2.55 (909 min)
- Michael Stone 2.64 (525 min)
- Connor Mackey 4.06 (99 min)
Some observations … Does Dennis Gilbert deserve more ice time? I said it in the last game story, and pointed out the mess that creates with forcing Mackenzie Weegar to the right side with Rasmus Andersson and Chris Tanev. Who gets the third pairing minutes? Can you even them out? Does that help or hurt the top four? Can Zadorov handle even ice time with the others? … Second issue, being the difference between the top pairing and the second pairing. It’s strength of competition right? That’s why Weegar and Tanev are at 2.10 and Hanifin and Andersson are at 2.55! Nope. All four players face elite competition roughly 32.5% of the time with Tanev first in that category and Weegar last and all four skaters between 32.2 and 32.8%.
Stingy First Period
One of the best ways to avoid that dreaded first game back of a road trip is to come out and literally give up nothing.
With 12 minutes spent in the first period the shots were 3-1 for the Flames, the chances almost zeroes both ways.
Sure they’re the Flames, so they didn’t create a whole lot either, but at least they avoided chasing the game.
Calgary gets the lead on an Elias Lindholm shorthanded goal set up by Mikael Backlund, but Detroit ties it late on a turnover with a puck going off Michael Stone and past Dan Vladar.
Puck Following Huberdeau
For stretches of games this season you sadly haven’t noticed Jonathan Huberdeau. Not a lot has happened.
Tonight though the puck was following him around, especially early./
A first period chance in the slot, a one timer that’s blocked and then a partial break where he hits a goal post was all accomplished in the first period.
He also got a stick to the side of the head of Dylan Larkin.
In the second a chance off a stick, a blue chip set up for Kadri and a hooking penalty.
The guy got noticed!
Vladar Start
Kind of a broken record section this year isn’t it?
As with any Markstrom start you ask yourself how many ugly goals were given up … and as is almost always the case the answer is maybe one? Tonight one for sure, as the third period goal was rough, and maybe the short side powerplay goal where he made himself pretty small.
But he was pretty solid. They passed the puck around him but that’s more on his teammates in my book.
Bottom line again though a sub .900 save percentage night by a Flames goaltender. Tonight it’s below .800 at .792 and an expected goal total of 2.35 while give up 5.00.
Just goes on and on.
Dube Again
Another game, another goal.
Now with 16 on the season you have to start and wonder if the 20 goal 50 point target is too low?
In a disappointing season for key offensive players it’s easy to say that Dillon Dube is the most pleasant surprise. Tyler Toffoli of course certainly in the mix as well.
Coming into the season there were more than a few regulars on the site that were calling him a fourth line player. Guessing they’re not thinking that now.
Kadri and Passing
Anyone else getting a little tired of the Nazem Kadri keep the puck until you lose it schtick?
You never know a player until he’s on the team that you watch. I had seen many games with Nazem Kadri in it, but you don’t watch them the same way.
When he joined the Flames and didn’t distribute pucks very well I thought maybe he was the new guy, trying hard to make a difference and it altered his game.
But we’re 2/3 of the way through a season now and he’s still not moving pucks.
Has to be annoying to be on his line and see all the chances for pucks to better spots or give and gos that are either not seen or just ignored.
Speaking of Kadri
Not sure how all four officials missed the high stick to the head of Bertuzzi behind the Flames net on the Wings third goal.
All four?
If seen that’s five and a game in my books. Don’t care about blood, but when a player swings his stick at that height towards an opponent they deserve to get the book thrown at them.
Brutally careless play.
Special Teams
Always helps when you score a short handed goal!
As a start at least.
All down hill from there though as the Wings score twice with the man advantage in the second period, a key in their win.
Wings by a laugher for special teams.
Standings and Record
Such a wasted opportunity against the Wings that played the night before.
Luckily the Predators lost so there’s that, but with the loss the Flames move into 9th spot in the West in terms of winning percentage.
This season … it just seems to continue in that same rut.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 35 Red Wings 24
Face Offs: Flames 44% / Red Wings 56%
Powerplay: Flames 0-2 / Red Wings 2-4
Fancy Stats
Lately I’ve been going off on the Flames for running up high shot attempt and shot games but not really doing much with the substance. Tonight they were better in that story, actually outplaying the Wings across the board. Five on five the Flames had 70% of the shot attempts with period splits of 72%/64% and 74% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 66%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 60%, with a 12-8 split.
In all situations the Flames had 66% of the shot attempts, 62% of the expected goals, and 58% of the high danger splits. The all situations expected goal totals came out at 3.78 to 2.35.
Individually the Flames were led by Chris Tanev posting an xGF% of 94% on the night five on five. Mackenzie Weegar, Nazem Kadri, Milan Lucic, Jakob Pelletier, Brett Ritchie, and Trevor Lewis were all in the 80s. Only three players under water; Dillon Dube, Elias Lindholm and Rasmus Andersson.
