A solid road effort with a hugely disappointing finish.
You could laugh it off if it wasn’t in the 65% mark of a season that has just been a head scratcher, but instead it’s just another straw towards that proverbial camels’ back.
Uncle!
The Flames dominate the game from start to finish, build up a two goal lead in the third period and then with the goalie pulled give up not one but two goals and then the overtime winner after dominating the overtime period as well.
The five game trip all in all was successful enough with six points; they’re in better shape than when they left.
But such a different feel to this season …
The Lineup
Yet another game without Rasmus Andersson as the team’s top defenseman misses his third game with injuries sustained by getting hit by a car in Detroit. (that sounds worse than it is Thank God!).
So the blueline rolls as we’ve seen; Noah Hanifin with Chris Tanev, Nikita Zadorov with Mackenzie Weegar, and Dennis Gilbert with Michaels Tone.
The forward group doesn’t change, which means another game on the sidelines for Adam Ruzicka.
Elias Lindholm with Dillon Dube and Tyler Toffoli, Nazem Kadri with Jakob Pelletier and Jonathan Huberdeau, Mikael Backlund with Andrew Mangiapane and Blake Coleman, and Trevor Lewis between Milan Lucic and Brett Ritchie.
In goal they go with Jacob Markstrom after the win in Buffalo.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Dube – Lindholm – Toffoli 49.2%
Pelletier – Kadri – Huberdeau 77.2%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Coleman 67.3%
Lucic – Lewis – Ritchie 43.1%
Hanifin – Tanev 69.2%
Zadorov – Weegar 56.7%
Gilbert – Stone 41.5%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +1.5
Vladar -2.0
Trend Tracker:
Interesting to watch that second line of Nazem Kadri with Jakob Pelletier and Jonathan Huberdeau putting it together again. They were together leading up to the all star game and dominant, but slipped somewhat this past week on the road before getting right on track in Buffalo. With a limited sample size (47 minutes) they are now the top line for the Flames this year with minutes of 45+, passing the current Backlund line. Bodes well for both the struggling Huberdeau and rookie Pelletier.
Dube Rolling
With four points in Buffalo on Saturday and then another two goals tonight it’s pretty clear Dillon Dube (and his linemates) are feeling it.
Many have doubted the upside of the player in recent seasons, but could there be a better example of developing an offensive junior player the right way? Show him the defensive side of the puck, demand consistency and then have the player himself come out and say he feels ready and better prepared for NHL hockey after learning the 200 foot game.
He’s now on a 23 goal, 28 assist … 51 point pace.
Are we seeing the 50 point Dillon Dube emerge?
Put the Whistle Away
Five first period penalties and what two that were absolute have to call?
The Coleman trip with his stick in the legs of Branstrom was going to get called, and the high stick on Toffoli by Hamonic late … those are no brainers.
But an almost grab of a stick called holding the stick, a player running into another player called interference,
I mean you can make a case for everyone of them (it didn’t stop in the second), but then you could make a case for another 25 calls in the game as well.
Imagine that game.
Let them play … please?
Toffoli Again
That’s five goals in five games again for Toffoli as his streaky play all season continues.
Two in Buffalo and another one tonight gives him 22 on the season as he eases his way towards his career best of 31.
Quite a trade now when you look at how year two is doing.
He seemed slow and losing a gear last year after the acquisition, although his metrics suggested he was somewhat unlucky. This year he’s back to that guy Montreal has in their playoff drive.
Can’t believe he has another left to go on his deal after this one. Really puts the rental value argument in question when you can get two and 1/3 years of Tyler Toffoli for a similar package.
Gilbert Worthy of Elevation?
Michael Stone has the bomb, but five on five in sheltered minutes isn’t Dennis Gilbert the better defenseman?
The problem though is slotting with the team already having Noah Hanifin as a 100% left defenseman and the need to find right side options for all of Hanifin, Gilbert and Zadorov for pairings.
They can move Mackenzie Weegar over but then what? Play Weegar on the third pairing?
I wonder if Gilbert can play his off side. You never know.
If This Was a Better Season …
You wouldn’t even be all that pissed about that bizarre finish.
The Flames put together a solid 60 minute effort didn’t give up much, but then two goals with the goalie pulled … out play Ottawa in overtime and still find a way to lose.
There’s sitting on a lead and getting what you deserve, but that wasn’t the case at all tonight.
Just isn’t their season.
Road Trip
Some less than stellar touches on this road trip when it comes to the opposition but at least they got it done when it comes to points.
Two wins, a loss and two overtime losses for six points on a five game trip.
Not ground breaking, but good enough to keep in the hunt with everyone around them sputtering as well.
Are they ever going to seize things and put a string together? Or is this it?
Markstrom’s Game
Tough finish and a tough game for a netminder.
Literally no action through 30 minutes, not a whole lot after that as well but then the rough caves in in the final 2.5 minutes and it’s a different finish.
The cool, objective view of it shows the Senators had the edge in expected goals … the Flames controlled the play, but once again didn’t generate that much, and then gave up the kitchen sink late and let the Senators back in it.
So 3.36 expected goals against and 4 goals is pretty tight, but yet another brick in the wall for a rough season for the Flames starter.
Special Teams
The Senators with the vaulted 2nd overall powerplay were blanked by the Flames on four chances … though not really four chances with all the overlapping penalties in this one.
The Flames score once on four chances themselves … once again not really four chances.
So give the edge to the Flames in special teams with the perfection PK and 1/4 night on the powerplay.
Ottawa generates two high danger chances in six minutes, the Flames one in four.
Standings and Record
The point helps of course … they keep ahead of the Minnesota Wild and move a touch closer to other idle teams.
The Flames are helped by the Predators losing at home to the Coyotes, which is a surprise.
So despite a frustrating result tonight and the loss of a point, overall they’re coming home in better shape than when they left before the all star break after a terrible game against the Blackhawks.
But don’t bet on any breathing room heading home. Won’t happen.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 37 Senators 25
Face Offs: Flames 57% / Senators 43%
Powerplay: Flames 1-4 / Senators 0-4
Fancy Stats
Fired off a text to the owner of Natural Stat Trick a few months ago when I saw a game much like this one. The Flames had more shot attempts, more shots, more scoring chances and more high danger chances, but they didn’t end up with the best of the expected goals? Why? Every high danger chance isn’t treated equally and the Flames created less dangerous high danger chances and gave up the ten bell type and with that ended up on the short end of the stick both in stats and the final score. Five on five the Flames had 66% of the shot attempts with period splits of 72%/61% and 65% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 49%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 59%, with a 10-7 split.
In all situations the Flames had 65% of the shot attempts, 45% of the expected goals, and 60% of the high danger splits. The all situations expected goal totals came out at 2.77 to 3.36.
Individually the Flames were led by Trevor Lewis posting an xGF% of 67% on the night five on five. Andrew Mangiapane, Michael Backlund and Noah Hanifin were also in the 60s. Five players with rough nights; Milan Lucic, Nazem Kadri, Nikita Zadorov, Jakob Pelletier and Brett Ritchie.
