The game plan was pretty easy to define.
Control the game five on five, and try to stay out of the box in order to neutralize the Oilers big guns and steer home the season series.
Things looked to be rolling along according to play midway through the third period with the Flames up 2-1 with just over ten minutes to play in the the third period.
But then a rim goes straight to Connor McDavid, the game is tied and Calgary is reeling as Zach Hyman found the game winner, and the Flames couldn’t find the rebuttal.
A very winnable game is suddenly a regulation loss, and the Battle of Alberta tied at a game with the rubber match in Calgary in late December.
The Lineup
We’ve only seen the one change all season; the Buffalo game where Noah Hanifin was too sick to play. We’ve seen the same 12 forwards in every game, without even a switch up in lines.
No change tonight.
Up front it’s Elias Lindholm between Jonathan Huberdeau and Tyler Toffoli, Nazem Kadri with Dillon Dube and Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund with Blake Coleman and Trevor Lewis, and a fourth line of Kevin Rooney with Milan Lucic and Brett Ritchie.
On the blueline it’s Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson, Mackenzie Weegar with Chris Tanev and a third pairing of Nikita Zadorov with Michael Stone.
Jacob Markstrom gets the start against the Oilers tonight.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Huberdeau – Lindholm – Toffoli 44.4%
Mangiapane – Kadri – Dube 47.3%
Coleman – Backlund – Lewis 56.1%
Lucic – Rooney – Ritchie 32.4%
Hanifin – Andersson 40.0%
Weegar – Tanev 53.0%
Zadorov – Stone 57.9%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +3.5
Vladar -0.3
Trend Tracker: The Flames continue to slide on their defensive metrics. Three of four forward lines and one of the three defense pairs were under water in expected goals on the season heading into the game with Edmonton. Many point to how great the Kadri line has been, but as a trio they now sit at 47.3% of the expected goal share, but are up on the top line which is back at 44.4%. …. Jacob Markstrom’s advanced stats look much better after the Pittsburgh game with a +3.5 goals saved above average, which makes him a top ten goaltender. Hardly the crisis that many had featured in news print and talk radio.
McDavid Duty
It was pretty clear off the hop that Darryl Sutter had little interest in matching lines, even with the last change on home ice.
In the first period he chose to put out the fourth line and the third defense pairing for an offensive zone face off with McDavid’s line on the ice.
As far as splits on the game it the minutes parsed out with Elias Lindholm getting just over five minutes against the Oiler’s captain. Nazem Kadri had just under four minutes, Mikael Backlund just over three … so a pretty even split overall.
Ironically, the center with the best underlying numbers against McDavid was fourth line pivot Kevin Rooney.
Markstrom Start
Some cross bars early, but then I thought Jacob Markstrom really settled down and played a solid game behind an air tight five on five team in front of him, and bailing his teammates out when they were down a man or playing four on four.
Huge gaff in the third period, in a play that just comes down to a law averages in my mind.
You want goalies out to stop rims, no NHL coach would suggest otherwise. Sometimes you miss them, and when you do you hope the puck doesn’t land on the best player in the world’s stick for a quick shot short side.
That was the turning point, as it looked like the Flames were poised to grind the Oilers down a to a 2-1 loss.
Zach Hyman Flame Killer
In last Spring’s second round series Zach Hyman emerged from the shadows to completely change the series in Edmonton’s favour.
Tonight more of the same.
A second period powerplay goal to tie the game up, and then a third period game winner to completely change the complexion of the fame, Hyman clearly has the Flames number.
Lucic With A Step
You can tell Milan Lucic like to play against the Edmonton Oilers.
Early on when he swapped sides he seemed somewhat tentative, but now he’s full on a Calgary beast against a chief rivals and clearly revels in making a difference.
His fourth line had a solid night without being all that sheltered, a good step as they’ve struggled of late.
He set up the Flames go ahead goal in the second period when he won a board battle behind the Edmonton net and centered the puck to linemate Brett Ritchie.
All night he was wheeling to get in on the forecheck and create momentum.
Noticeable night.
Lindholm Rebounding
Thought Elias Lindholm had his best game of the season, certainly a good sign in getting that top line untracked and producing five on five.
Through 15 minutes of five on five hockey he had a 80+% xGF% and a 7-0 margin in high danger chances despite coming up empty again on the score sheet.
To start the season, one of Calgary’s most consistent players was pretty much missing in action, at least in a positive way, and not providing his normal stalwart defensive game in his own zone.
If he’s finding his way, it bodes well for that top line.
Special Teams
The Flames powerplay wasn’t very good on the night. They didn’t get set up very often, and didn’t create a whole lot when they did.
But they did manage to saw off the special teams battle with Edmonton on the strength of a Mikael Backlund short handed goal on the same powerplay that had the Oilers answer right back.
High danger chances up a man was 2-1 for the Oilers … call this one a draw.
Standings and Record
With a 2-1 lead in the third period with about ten minutes to go, it certainly didn’t look like a regulation loss in the making.
The loss moves the Flames into second place in both the division and the conference by points percentage. The Oilers now have more points, but have played two additional games.
The Flames are now five games into this eight game homestand to start the season, and have a 5-2-0 record on the season, and a 3-2-0 record on the homestand.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 42 Oilers 26
Face Offs: Flames 49% / Oilers 51%
Powerplay: Flames 0-3 / Oilers 1-4
Fancy Stats
With nobody in the penalty box the Flames were very much in control of this one. In any other situation; the Oilers up a man, the Flames up a man, or four on four the Flames really struggled. Five on five the Flames had 65% of the shot attempts with period splits of 50%/77% and 64% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 64%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 67%, with a 14-7 split.
In all situations the Flames had 58% of the shot attempts, 53% of the expected goals, and 56% of the high danger splits.
Individually the Flames were led by Brett Ritchie, with an xGF% of 83% five on five on the night. Elias Lindholm, Jonathan Huberdeau and Kevin Rooney were also in the 80s. Tyler Toffoli, Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson and Milan Lucic were in the 70s. The only four players under water were Blake Coleman, Mikael Backlund, Dillon Dube and Nazem Kadri.
