It was incredible how different game three was compared to the first two games in Calgary.
Way more offensive flow and a huge pile up of scoring chances, as the Dallas Stars broke open a 2-2 tie in the third period with a Joe Pavelski powerplay goal to tilt the game towards the home side.
The Flames had a 2-1 lead in the second period, and looked to be taking the game away before wilting in the last 7 minutes of the period and sending the game into the third period all tied up.
Johnny Gaudreau had a breakaway with five minutes to go in an effort to tie things up but Jake Oettinger made the save to put a exclamation point on a game where he dominated.
The Flames won’t want to go down 3-1 on Monday night, so they have to find a way to solve the young Dallas goaltender.
The Lineup
The Flames lose game two, not scoring a goal, but it’s not expected that Darryl Sutter is going to make any changes going into game three.
The Backlund and Lindholm lines certainly created more in game two than they did in game one, the fourth line took a step back. Five on five the Flames have to get untracked.
So its Elias Lindholm with Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund with Andrew Mangiapane and Tyler Toffoli, Calle Jarnkrok between Blake Coleman and Dillon Dube, and Trevor Lewis centering Milan Lucic and Brett Ritchie.
On the blueline it’s the expected six, with Erik Gudbranson coming back in after taking a pass on the final regular season game in Winnipeg. So it’s Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington with Chris Tanev, and Nikita Zadorov with Gudbranson.
Jacob Markstrom gets the start in the nets.
Regular Season Line Metrics
xGF%
Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk 62.2%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Tofoli 45.0%
Dube – Jarnkrok – Coleman 42.0%
Lucic – Lewis – Ritchie 41.7%
Hanifin – Andersson 56.8%
Kylington – Tanev 57.4%
Zadorov – Gudbranson 56.8%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +10.8
Stars & Flames: Last 10 Regular Season Games
In the last 10 regular season games the Dallas Stars were ranked 14th in win percentage at 0.60. They had the 21st ranked CF%, and the 22nd ranked xGF%. They weren’t exactly setting the world on fire. They had the 32nd ranked team five on five shooting percentage and the 7th best team save percentage.
The Stars on the season had the 11th best powerplay (just behind the Flames), and the 19th ranked penalty kill.
The Flames finished the season with the 7th ranked win percentage at 0.700. They had the 6th ranked CF%, and the 25th ranked xGF% (stinky). Their team shooting percentage was ranked 8th, and their team save percentage was 17th.
The Flames powerplay was ranked 10th, and their penalty kill was ranked 56th.
This Series Statistically (Five on Five through two games)
Flames Splits …
CF% 61.5% (2nd)
SF% 59.3% (2nd)
GF% 0.0% (16th)
xGF% 54.2% (6th)
Play Driving Players … (xGF%)
Kylington 73%
Andersson 70%
Coleman 68%
Tanev 62%
Hanifin 61%
Players Getting Filled In … (xGF%)
Zadorov 25%
Gudbranson 29%
Ritchie 35%
Lucic 45%
Lewis 47%
Lucic Call
I never get them right, but I was pretty sure the Lewis goal would count when I saw the details in the replay.
Lucic made an attempt to avoid contact, Oettinger put his leg into him outside the paint, and Lucic was guided in by Tyler Seguin.
Would have been great if the Flames really used that as a turning point and scored on the ensuing powerplay, but it was good to see things tied up early and not drag out over 53 minutes like we saw in game two.
Lewis On Your Bingo Card
So who had Trevor Lewis as the first five on five goal for the Flames seven periods into the series?
Honestly with that a fact it’s pretty wild they are tied 1-1 in games, and were tied 1-1 in score at the point the puck went in.
Great shift for the fourth line too, given how much of the first period was spent on special teams with the fourth crew cooling their heels.
Toffoli Fighting It
Little surprised to see Tyler Toffoli handling the puck like a hand grenade in tonight’s game.
Just brutal with the biscuit.
Flubbing the puck on simple stick handles, missing it when it’s ringed, bobbling it before trying to shoot, fanning on shots … just a complete disaster.
I thought he was one of the feistier Flames in game two, which was needed, but given his playoff experience I’m honestly surprised to see him struggle so much on simple plays.
Slough Foot?
Wasn’t the Jamie Benn “hit” on Chris Tanev in the second period a slough foot?
He had his right leg pushing the back of the knee on Tanev, and then kicked out the right foot in the same sequence.
As a result Tanev was stuck on the ice for almost two minutes as the Flames failed to clear the puck three different times.
Dangerous play.
Live and Die PK
The Flames have dominated the Dallas powerplay through the series with an emphasis on overloading the side with the puck carrier.
On the game winner that overload cost them as both players in the vicinity of the rebound went to the puck shooter, and not the guy heading for the rebound in Joe Pavelski, and with that he had a tap in.
They shouldn’t change anything on the PK, it’s been too solid, but when you pressure you can lose if the puck gets to the non-overloaded side of the ice.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 41 Stars 32
Face Offs: Flames 48% / Stars 52%
Powerplay: Flames 0-4 / Stars 1-4
Fancy Stats
No point in crying over spilt milk, but once again the Flames carried the play both five on five and overall in terms of shot attempts, expected goals and high danger splits. Five on five the Flames had 52% of the shot attempts with period splits of 50%/42% and 72% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 51%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 52%, with a 16-15 split.
In all situations the Flames had 56% of the shot attempts, 58% of the expected goals, and 58% of the high danger splits. The Calgary team offence was much more on point tonight, but Jake Oettinger was excellent for the Stars in the nets.
It was a great bounce back night for the bottom half of the roster as the fourth line and third defense pairing struggled by the numbers in the first two games. Individually the Flames were led by Erik Gudbranson with 83% in terms of xGF%. Trevor Lewis and Milan Lucic were also in the 80s. Brett Ritchie and Nikita Zadorov were in the 70s. Five players were under the 40% mark in xGF% including; Dillon Dube, Chris Tanev, Oliver Kylington, Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk.
