Tough game to get your head around.
The first forty minutes featured about as solid a road game as you could play, text book but against an opponent that wasn’t as strong as the team can expect to see in the first round of the playoffs.
Yet it’s a one goal game going to the third, which shouldn’t have been a problem with how well the Flames were playing.
Instead, however, the team comes out flat for the final 20 and relies on the mothballed Jacob Markstrom to steer home a 5-2 win boosted by two empty net goals.
The Flames got two goals from Johnny Gaudreau, and some support scoring from Blake Coleman and Dillon Dube.
They play again tomorrow night in Nashville.
The Lineup
Is Darryl Sutter starting to zero in on his playoff opening night roster? Going with the same lineup after the Arizona ass kicking should be a surprise, but seeing a guy like Adam Ruzicka in the lineup in back to back games over Ryan Carpenter could be a thing. Or not.
So it’s Elias Lindholm with Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund with Andrew Mangiapane and Tyler Toffoli, Calle Jarnkrok with Dillon Dube and Blake Coleman … a line that was noticeably good on Saturday. And finally Ruzicka between Milan Lucic and Trevor Lewis.
On the blueline it’s the normal six; Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington with Chris Tanev, and Nikita Zadorov with Erik Gudbranson.
In goal Sutter is going with Jacob Markstrom again. With back to back games, and a date in Nashville tomorrow I’d assume Dan Vladar tomorrow night; both for goalie wear reasons and for strategy should the two teams play in the first round of the playoffs.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk 62.9%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Tofoli 45.5%
Dube – Jarnkrok – Coleman 47.9%
Lucic – Ruzicka – Lewis 46.8%
Hanifin – Andersson 58.0%
Kylington – Tanev 58.4%
Zadorov – Gudbranson 56.9%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +12.5
Hawks & Flames: Last 10 games
Chicago’s playoff aspirations are deep in the rear view mirror so it should come as no surprise that they have the league’s 29th best points percentage over their last ten games. Their CF% split in that time period is ranked 31st at 43.6%, with their xGF% right in line at 41.4% good for 31st overall as well. They have the 20th ranked team shooting percentage five on five and the 23rd ranked team save percentage.
The Flames in the last ten games have the 12th best record in points percentage at 0.650. Their shot metrics remain in the 3rd overall spot and their expected goal splits 10th. Execution has been their issue (if there is an issue) with the 16th ranked team five on five shooting percentage and the 16th ranked team save percentage.
Depth Scoring Getting Some Numbers
I mentioned it after the Arizona game with Dillon Dube picking up two goals, but it’s been great to see Dube added to the list of important depth scoring up front moving the group from four; Blake Coleman, Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund and Tyler Toffoli to five.
And with another goal tonight Dube now sits at 14, which kind of crept up on me in a season that seemed to be destined for 9 or 10.
Blake Coleman also scored and move his total to 16, a much better number – at least to me – than say 12 for a guy. Just seems more like 20 than the low teens etc.
With Mangiapane and his goal scoring feats, Toffoli having 20 on the season, the Flames with two more that average 15 are certainly not just the three guys on the top line. That will mean a whole lot going into the playoffs.
Third Line Chemistry
Great to see the third line popping in three straight games.
The second line has sputtered of late, and haven’t been the possession monsters they were earlier in the season with a different alignment. The common thread could be Blake Coleman who seems to be on the right side of the numbers regardless of who he plays with.
But with Coleman and Dube both scoring it’s great to see that third line rewarded for the second straight game after a good run of solid play.
The Johnny Show
Two more goals, and now 107 points on the season.
The 107 moves him past Hakan Loob, and into a tie with Guy Chouinard. He’s now only three points back of Joey Mullen for the 2nd spot for single season points in Flames history.
Unbelievable.
Markstrom’s Night
Wouldn’t be great if this type of game was practice for the playoffs? Don’t count on it.
But by this type of game I mean, the kind of encounter where a goaltender has to battle with his concentration because he’s just getting nothing to do.
The Flames were up 1-0 with a 6-0 edge in shots … the Hawks didn’t see the Calgary zone until almost eight minutes into the game. The second was even worse with the Flames up 29-10 in shots through two periods.
The 10th Hawks shot went in though, an unscreened wrister from the point that Markstrom missed with his blocker, off the post and in.
And with that you have a 3-2 games after 40 that likely should have been 5 or 6-1.
Yet from that ten shot point on Markstrom was perfect and had to be as he was the difference in a leaky third period for the Flames but was able to bring home the victory.
I guess that’s why they pay him the big bucks.
Mangiapane Mr. Bobble
Thought Andrew Mangiapane had a brutal night handling the puck and well … his skates.
Lost his footing on numerous occasions and had the puck die on his stick with either losing his feat or just bobbling the puck when carrying it. A couple of years ago I compared Mangiapane to former Flyer Scott Hartnell who was famous for his “Hartnell Down” shirts in Philly for falling down numerous times a game.
He had cleaned that for the most part, but tonight he was terrible.
His bobble and fall on that third period powerplay almost resulted in a tie game in a contest that should have been long over.
Snake Bit Calle
When is this poor guy going to score?
He’s still stuck on that Calgary goose egg despite getting a point blank chance tonight on a Johnny Gaudreau set up in the first period.
Against Arizona he had a few chances, and before he was hurt he had three or four almost givens that he failed to convert.
Bottom line … who cares? If he goes 0-2-2 to end the regular season but scores 7 goals and 13 points in 26 playoff games he’s a great acquisition.
He needs to be the Marcus Nilsson of this year’s playoffs.
At least that’s the hope.
Fortunate Night For Calls
We can all piss and moan about how hard our hockey team is treated by NHL officials, but in this one Calgary fans should thank their lucky stars that the two refs were equally distracted on a few occasions.
A first period high stick by Calle Jarnkrok on Johnathan Toews was missed completely.
Johnny Gaudreau tripped up a Hawks defenseman after failing on a breakaway chance.
And in the third period Tyler Toffoli got away with a whack to the mitts of Patrick Kane.
Could have been a different game if some or all of those were called, especially with the Flames lack of finish tonight.
40 & 100 Clubs
Good night for both the quest to have three 40 goals scorers and two 100 point players on the Flames this season.
Matthew Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm hit the pause button on their ascents to 40, both coming up empty, but Johnny Gaudreau scored twice to move to get to 38 on the season. That’s a total of 4 goals and boom … 3 40 goal scorers.
The 100 point watch for Tkachuk had a good night as the winger picked up two assists to move to 98 on the season.
Team Season Marks Falling Too
The win gives the Flames 103 points on the season, moving the 21-22 team into a tie with the 2005-06 team for the 4th best season in Flames history. The 87-88 team is just ahead with 105.
The 2018-19 season of course finished with 107 points but an abrupt end to the season against Colorado.
Special Teams
The PK teams ran the show tonight with the Flames going zero for three, and the Hawks zero for two.
With that you have to give the Hawks the edge, don’t you?
Humorously neither team had a high danger chance with the man advantage so yeah give the edge to the Hawks as they whiffed three times doing nothing.
Standings and Record
The Flames, as I said now have 103 points and a .678 points percentage through 76 games.
They have a nine point lead on the Oilers with even games played. If the Oilers won all six games the Flames would only need four points in their final six games or a 2-4-0 record.
The Flames are 6th overall in terms of win percentage and razor close to both the Rangers and Carolina.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 35 Hawks 24
Face Offs: Flames 47% / Hawks 53%
Powerplay: Flames 0-3 / Hawks 0-2
Fancy Stats
Very clearly a tale of two games; the first forty minutes and the final twenty. The Flames had a text book first two periods and should have been up four or five, but a late Hawks’ goal in the second gave them some belief, and the Flames seemed to mail it in in the third. Five on five the Flames had 52% of the shot attempts with period splits of 58%/59% and 36% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 57%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 60%, with a 6-4 split.
In all situations the Flames had 56% of the shot attempts, 72% of the expected goals, and 60% of the high danger splits.
Individually the Flames were led by Chris Tanev with an xGF% of74% five on five on the night. He was followed closely by Matthew Tkachuk and Oliver Kylington who both had 70% xGF% nights for the Flames. Six players were in the 60s including; Johnny Gaudreau, Nikita Zadorov, Elias Lindholm, Calle Jarnkrok, Erik Gudbranson and Andrew Mangiapane. The fourth line had a terrible night posting numbers under 10% including Milan Lucic at zero flat.
