Darryl Sutter thought both teams were exhausted, and he likely had a point as the most recent Battle of Alberta had a noticeable lack of high octane play in a quiet slug fest between the provincial rivals.
The Flames found their way to a 3-1 win on the strength of two goals by Tyler Toffoli in the second period, and a put away goal by Johnny Gaudreau in the third period. Jacob Markstrom lost his shut out bid on a third period goal off the skate of the referee, robbing him of his 9th doughnut of the season.
The win keeps the Flames rolling overall and and home ice, and pretty much puts a dagger in the Oilers and any chance of catching Calgary this season. They now have an 11 point lead and have two games in hand.
No rest for the weary as the Flames play the Capitals tomorrow night. Glad it didn’t get to overtime!
The Lineup
Provincial rivalry game with a full house in the Saddledome and a solid chance to bury their arch enemies, and Darryl Sutter blenders is bottom three lines in the morning skate.
Positioning his team to shut down the Oilers to key players? Or a way to get Edmonton thinking about change that isn’t actually happening?
I guess we’ll find out.
But to assume some honestly in the morning line rushes we will see the regular top line of Elias Lindholm between Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. A new shut down (2nd line?) of Mikael Backlund with Blake Coleman and Trevor Lewis. A new third line (2nd line? secondary scoring line?) of Adam Ruzicka with Andrew Mangiapane and Tyler Toffoli, and finally a fourth line (3rd line?) of Sean Monahan between Milan Lucic and Dillon Dube.
If it goes it’s interesting. Trevor Lewis is a bottom six player but he’s reliable defensively. Getting Ruzicka with two shooters is really interesting because he distributes the puck well. And most combinations that have Lucic with Dube seem to click. Could be a thing.
No change on the blueline with Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington with Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov with Erik Gudbranson.
Jacob Markstrom is expected to start in goal.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk 62.6%
Lewis – Backlund – Coleman 71.4%
Mangiapane – Ruzicka – Toffoli NA
Lucic – Monahan – Dube 60%
Hanifin – Andersson 58.1%
Kylington – Tanev 58.1%
Zadorov – Gudbranson 58.9%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom 8.9
Who They Playing?
The Edmonton Oilers are the 9th overall team in terms of five on five CF%. They are evenly built with the 9th best team five on five offence and the 9th best five on five defense. They give up more than they get in quality, so their xGF% is lower at 12th overall, with a 14th ranked xGA60.
They have the 18th ranked five on five shooting percentage, and the 21st ranked team five on five save percentage.
Their powerplay has slipped to 4th from that red hot start, and their penalty kill is ranked 26th.
Two Penalties In First Period
Five on five the Flames have owned the Oilers this year, despite both games before tonight being played in Edmonton. They had 63% of the expected goals between the two teams with the guys in stripes out of it. Yet they lost both games.
So clearly the recipe tonight is to stay out of the penalty box. Darryl Sutter was pissed at his crew for the penalties they took in Vancouver, and angry again when they took too many against Montreal, but tonight against Edmonton you just know it was hammered home in the dressing room before the game.
So how do you come out and take two first period penalties? Nikita Zadorov’s high stick on a small player when he was being hooked was accidental; it happens. But what the hell was Mikael Backlund thinking on his infraction? Hitting a guy without the puck right in the neutral zone? Odd play.
Eric Francis on Mangiapane
Kind of a weird take by Eric Francis after the first period in reference to Andrew Mangiapane.
He suggested that the change up in lines was a demotion for Mangiapane based on some of Darryl Sutter’s recent comments on the player, and the fact that he was lining up with the “fourth line center”.
Honestly I think this is chess and not checkers … Sutter is looking to find two lines that can shut down the Oilers two lines, and he felt Trevor Lewis with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman could pull that off.
If there is any demotion it’s Monahan to the fourth line, though there’s some talent there too, as Tyler Toffoli is still on the line but now with an upgraded left winger and a kid that can move the puck.
Ruzicka With Talent
And move the puck he did …
His pass to Toffoli for the second goal of the game is what I’ve come to expect from Ruzicka as he’s settled down.
I get that Sutter sat him for four games to keep him hungry. He’s young and still makes mistakes and the coach doesn’t want him to get too high on himself.
But I thought Mangiapane, Ruzicka and Toffoli were a solid third line, and the fourth line was good as well.
Toffoli Value
If you pick up a rental at the deadline you hope he a) helps you make the playoffs and then b) helps you move through the playoffs to some degree, but there are never any guarantees.
When you pay a rental fee and get 2.5 years of a guy it’s gravy, but still you watch to get a handle on the impact he makes and try to judge where the team would be if the trade didn’t happen.
Have to think getting two goals in Tyler Toffoli’s first Battle of Alberta game is more than gravy, it’s gravy in Yorkshire pudding beside the best medium rare roast beef.
Toffoli now with seven goals and ten points in ten games continues to be a story.
Great trade.
Kylington Continues to Be High risk
Really glad the Flames are at a place where they can walk Oliver Kylington out every night, give him minutes and live with the risk and reward in his game.
He brings so much to the game with his skating and his phone booth hands, but also scares the hell out of you with his blown edges, fanning on pucks, and creating exciting turn overs.
Tonight, like most nights, we saw all of it once again.
Great to see the player come this far from the first game of the season against Edmonton where he dressed as a 7th defenseman and barely touched the ice.
Special Teams
Didn’t start well, but in the end the Flames win the battle of the special teams for once and steer a game against Edmonton home.
The Oilers go zero for four on the powerplay while the Flames go one for four, so the math his simple, but the game was more interesting than that. The Oilers had three of the first four powerplays with the game either scoreless or close and came out empty with those chances. That was the game.
Standings and Record
With the win the Flames move to 34-14-7, for 20 games over .500 and 75 points in 55 games and a .682 win percentage. Those are gaudy numbers.
The LA Kings have been charging hard as well and are still within four points though the Flames have three games in hand. Vegas is now seven points back with Calgary having two games in the tank, and Edmonton is now 11 points back and Calgary once again with two games in hand.
The Oilers aren’t catching Calgary this year, collect your bets.
The Flames are still in 6th spot overall, but now trail the Rangers by only .006, in the West the Flames are almost .040 points ahead of the Blues as they try and reign in the streaking Avalanche.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 29 Oilers 28
Face Offs: Flames 55% / Oilers 45%
Powerplay: Flames 1-4 / Oilers 0-4
Fancy Stats
The Flames got the win, but Darryl Sutter in his post game may have had a point; both teams looked pretty tired in a very low event hockey game. Five on five the Flames had 45% of the shot attempts with period splits of 47%/45% and 42% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 42%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 17%, with a 1-5 split. I honestly don’t remember a game with so little going on five on five. Six total high danger chances is incredibly low.
In all situations the Flames had 51% of the shot attempts, 57% of the expected goals, and 54% of the high danger splits. The Flames had the better of the special teams clearly, something we haven’t seen this year.
The Flames were lead individually by Rasmus Andersson who had 68% of the five on five shot attempts when he was on the ice. Five additonal players had nights in the 60s; Andrew Mangiapane, Noah Hanifin, Tyler Toffoli, Johnny Gaudreau and Adam Ruzicka. The Backlund line had some tough matchups and finished under 20%.
