I said it earlier this week when the Flames swept the Minnesota Wild in a two game set; the Flames have done well to answer to measuring sticks since the ugly road trip through Florida and Carolina.
Many had circled the two Wild games and the game tonight against the Avalanche as key games to prove the Flames are for real in this improbable season, and tonight with the Flames beating Colorado in overtime the Flames managed to win all three of those games and send a very strong message.
Calgary had their top line go off with all three of Johnny Gaudreau, Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk having three point nights, and Dan Vladar was solid in a surprise start picking up the win.
Next up the Edmonton Oilers with a great chance for the Flames to bury any chance of their provincial rivals catching them this season.
The Lineup
With a disappointing game against the Canadiens for many of the team’s better players it didn’t come as a shock to see some change for tonight’s game in Denver.
Up front Dillon Dube comes into the lineup for Brad Richardson on a fourth line with Trevor Lewis and Brett Ritchie. No change to the other three lines; Elias Lindholm with Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund with Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane, and Sean Monahan with Milan Lucic and Tyler Toffoli.
No change on the blueline with Noah Hanifin lining up with Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington with Chris Tanev, and Nikita Zadorov with Erik Gudbranson.
The other big change is in goal with Jacob Markstrom getting the night off with Dan Vladar getting the start. Markstrom needs to be at his best on Monday, and he wasn’t all that good against Montreal.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk 62.6%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Coleman 64.5%
Lucic – Monahan – Toffoli 37.5%
Dube – Lewis – Ritchie NA
Hanifin – Andersson 58.5%
Kylington – Tanev 58.5%
Zadorov – Gudbranson 59.1%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom -3.2
Who They Playing?
It won’t come as a surprise to anyone that the Avalanche have solid underlying numbers. They are the 5th best team five on five in terms of CF%, leaning on offence with the 4th best attack and the 11th best team defense. For expected goal splits they’re a little further back, ranked 11th.
They have the 6th best five on five team shooting percentage, and the 10th best team save percentage.
Despite all their talent they have somewhat average special teams with the 11th ranked powerplay, and the 20th ranked penalty kill.
Whiney Crowd
Was reminded about the Denver crowd in this one.
In the 2018-29 playoff series I honestly thought I’d never seen a group of fans that seem to boo and complain about almost every incident of contact of any kind against their players.
Same thing tonight.
Body check. Boo.
Puck battle and an Avalanche player loses his balance. Boo.
Seemed a little over the top.
Talented Team
That’s a scary hockey team.
The Flames have the system, and they manage the puck well when they’re on. But against a team like the Avalanche even the best puck management doesn’t really hold a candle to elite speed.
If a puck hit the shin pads, or took a funny bounce the Avalanche just countered so fast all night long. We all know Nathan Mackinnon has rockets for feet, but it seemed like they have a half dozen players that can burn anyone standing still.
Lucic Fighting
That’s five fighting majors for Milan Lucic this year, which is a lot in the modern game.
He’s clearly one of the tougher guys in the league, but he’s also 33 and pretty much always fighting guys that are younger than him. Have to tip your hat to the guy.
Also noticed the room he gets out there. He slashes Fantouz after a wrister from Sean Monahan and not a single Avalanche had a thing to say about it leaving their goaltender to complain to the referee alone.
Anyone else see the number of times Girdard bailed out when Lucic was coming? Had a chuckle at that. Intimidation is alive and well in today’s game.
3-3 Goal
Man I hate goals against like that.
You get a turnover and pounce, fail to get a shot on goal, and then just like that it’s back up the ice and in your net.
Johnny Gaudreau probably should have shot the puck when he got it, and honestly I don’t know what Sean Monahan was doing when he took the Gaudreau pass.
Disaster.
Vladar Start
This could be a very important start for Dan Vladar.
Lately he clearly hasn’t had the trust of his head coach, Darryl Sutter, but tonight despite fighting the puck to a degree he toughs one out, makes a lot of big saves and steers home a huge win for the Flames.
I thought his first goal was a rough one. Don’t get me wrong he made an amazing paddle save before the third shot went in, but his rebound control on the first shot led to the chaos.
But other than that he was pretty solid the rest of the way. Sure he had the odd bouncing puck get away from him and a puck off the boards go through his pads and out the other side, but he battled through it.
Kylington Down
Seeing the replay on Oliver Kylington’s blown tire in the third period leading to what looked like the game winner for the Avalanche you notice just how far over on his skates he gets before he loses an edge.
He’s an elite skater and he really gets down on the edges which has me thinking he needs taller steel. When he loses it the steel runs out and the plastic of the skate blade hits the ice and then it’s over.
Might want to add a quarter inch of blade length and see how it works out.
Three Point Nights
Too often in recent seasons media and fans have pointed out the need to have your best players be your best players when you’re playing top teams.
Tonight against the best team in the league the Flames got three points apiece from each member of the top line with Elias Lindholm having two goals and an assist, Johnny Gaudreau with the game winner and two assists, and Matthew Tkachuk with three helpers.
You don’t win games like that without your elite players stepping up.
Leaning on Kadri
Funny to see the Flames targeting Nazem Kadri all night.
Clearly that was the game plan, as he’s one of the the Avalanche’s best players, but he’s also a hot head that can create his own nightmare due to his temper.
Kadri received a rough ride all night from the Flames and especially from Erik Gudbranson in the first period with back to back hits that finished with a glove to the face.
Special Teams
About as even as a game can be, and a well called game with only two powerplays aside leaving two very good hockey teams to go at it five on five, and with all four lines involved.
The Flames scored once, with Elias Lindholm getting one of his patented slot one timers off in the first.
The Avalanche evened the special teams score with an Andrew Burakovsky goal a few minutes later.
Standings and Record
Huge win for the Flames.
The Flames are starting to create some room in the Pacific Division. They now have a seven point lead over second place Los Angeles, and still with two games in hand. Vegas is eight points back, once again with Calgary having two games in hand, and Edmonton is nine points back … once again Calgary with two games in hand. You never want to call something early, but the math is starting to lean pretty hard to Calgary’s side. What an opportunity on Monday night to four point the Oilers out of any chance of catching them.
Overall the Flames passed the Pittsburgh Penguins and are now the 6th best team in the league in terms of win percentage, at .676.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 37 Avalanche 36
Face Offs: Flames 62% / Avalanche 38%
Powerplay: Flames 1-2 / Avalanche 1-2
Fancy Stats
What a tight and entertaining hockey game. Two very good hockey games going toe to toe and showing why they are where they are in the standings. The underlying numbers pretty much reflected that. Five on five the Flames had 51% of the shot attempts with period splits of 66%/43% and 49% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 52%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 43%, with a 6-8 split.
In all situations the Flames had 52% of the shot attempts, 53% of the expected goals, and 47% of the high danger splits.
The Flames were lead individually by Trevor Lewis who had 72% of the five on five shot attempts when he was on the ice. Erik Gudbranson and Milan Lucic had nights in the 60s. Two players were at the bottom and under 40%; Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane.
