When teams have monster seasons out of nowhere there are always future measuring sticks put on the road to truly see if they are for real.
The Flames failed in one of those tests, their three game junket through Florida and Carolina, but have been essentially unbeatable since.
This week with two games against the Minnesota Wild, and another against the Colorado Avalanche was the Western measuring stick, and while the Wild aren’t firing on all cylinders, the Flames sweeping a two game mini series by a combined 12-4 score certainly has to be a good sign.
Tonight the Flames scored an early powerplay goal, then added another before the first period was over, and pretty much cruised to a 5-1 victory. By cruised I don’t mean the Wild didn’t have their looks; they did, but the Flames never really seemed to be in any trouble.
Quite the season.
The Lineup
No change in the lineup from the other game against the Wild, so Adam Ruzicka and Dillon Dube continue to be healthy scratches.
Up front it’s Elias Lindholm with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, Mikael Backlund with Andrew Mangiapane and Blake Coleman, Sean Monahan with Milan Lucic and Tyler Toffoli, and finally Brad Richardson with Trevor Lewis and Brett Ritchie.
On the blueline Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson, Chris Tanev with the miraculously recovered Oliver Kylington, and Nikita Zadorov with Erik Gudbranson.
Jacob Markstrom gets the start.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk 63.2%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Coleman 65.8%
Lucic – Monahan – Toffoli 35.0%
Lewis – Richardson – Ritchie 57.9%
Hanifin – Andersson 58.6%
Kylington – Tanev 58.3%
Zadorov – Gudbranson 59.8%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +10.7
Who They Playing?
Cleary not a lot of change for the Wild from Saturday night, despite the lopsided score.
The Wild are a top team, but some of their underlying stats are quite middling. They have a 14th ranked CF% at 50.11%. Their for and against five on five are pretty much dead middle as well. Their expected goals for is also underwhelming, but they do have the 7th ranked expected goals against five on five.
The team, however, can finish. The Wild have the number one ranked five on five team shooting percentage at 10.33%, two full percentage points above the Flames. Their team save percentage is 19th ranked, and five on five they have a 4th ranked PDO; they have gotten some bounces.
Their special teams aren’t all that special with the 18th ranked powerplay (down two spots from Saturday), and the 19th ranked penalty kill (also down two spots from Saturday).
Markstrom Strong
The Flames were good, solid road game, scored early, won the special teams battle … nothing to complain about.
But they didn’t out play the Wild to the tune of a 5-1 hockey game.
Jacob Markstrom was very very good. Lots of pucks hit him, and he found lots of rebounds, and when he had a clear sight he was rock solid in stopping pretty much every thing he could see.
Without a top goaltender that could have been a very different hockey game.
Two More Points for Toffoli
Another goal and and assist for Toffoli, and no freebies into an empty net this time!
In the first period his net front presence created the confusion that had Matthew Tkachuk wide open for an early powerplay goal on a great pass from Elias Lindholm.
In the third period he gave Johnny Gaudreau the perfect stick tip target, allowing the Flames star to put the puck off his blade for another powerplay goal.
His regular line may not be filling the net, but he’s certainly been a boost to the powerplay.
Killing penalties now too with Dillon Dube out of the lineup.
Seamless fit for the Flames.
Middle Six has a Night
While the top line (and fourth line) struggled five on five but got some production on the powerplay, the second and third lines did the play driving all night for the visitors in white.
The Monahan/Lucic/Toffoli line didn’t create any five on five production but were solid from shift to shift and enjoyed a decent amount of time in the offensive zone.
The second line created the game winner, and the empty net clincher as line number two had five points including two from Andrew Mangiapane and Mikael Backlund, and a single from Blake Coleman.
The win streak was based on a lot of good play, but the resurgence of that second line was one of the bigger parameters.
Now to get that third line scoring.
Aggressive Penalty Kill
Really liked the Flames aggressive penalty kill last night.
They literally gave the Wild fits by forcing them to shoot it in, or turn it over at the blueline on most forays into the Calgary zone. Not letting good teams set up is certainly a great recipe for limiting the damage when down a man.
The group only gave up two high danger chances and four shots on goal in over seven minutes short handed.
Overall Play
The Flames have a real calmness about them.
That comes from winning.
It comes from having an elite goaltender.
So while the game metrics will suggest Minnesota was the better five on five team, you just didn’t get a real sense that the Flames were in any real danger throughout the night.
They scored early, added to it, responded when Minnesota finally scored.
The Flames have a contending vibe to them right now, it’s unmitakable.
Special Teams
As I just said .. great night for the Flames penalty kill, but also for the powerplay unit that scored two “dagger” goals and played a huge part in the victory.
Scoring early in a contest on a powerplay is murder on the opposition, so too was the early powerplay goal in the third period to put the game completely out of reach.
The Wild were the better team five on five for the most part, but Calgary won the game with their special team units.
Standings and Record
With the win the Flames have a 32-14-6 record, good for 70 points and a .673 win percentage.
They are five points up on the Kings with two games in hand in the Pacific Division. The Knights are six points back and have also played two more games. Calgary also has two games in hand on Edmonton, and are up by 7 points.
To put this season in perspective, the Flames have only had one season in team history that finished with a win percentage higher than .673, and that was the ’89 cup team with a .731 mark. The next closest was was 87/88 with .656 and the Bill Peters season with .652. Only seven seasons in the 41 seasons in Calgary have had a win percentage greater than .600.
For the Flames not to have a .600 season they’d have to finish this year going two games under .500 for their final 30 games.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 27 Wild 33
Face Offs: Flames 53% / Wild 47%
Powerplay: Flames 2-3 / Wild 0-4
Fancy Stats
The Minnesota Wild are a good hockey team. The Flames may have just trounced them back to back, but on this night the Wild certainly had their chances. Score effects played a role too with the Flames getting up two goals early and then playing it safe for chunks of the game. Five on five the Flames had 44% of the shot attempts with period splits of 52%/57% and 24% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 33%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 17%, with a 2-10 split.
In all situations the Flames had 44% of the shot attempts, 44% of the expected goals, and 25% of the high danger splits.
The Flames were lead individually by Milan Lucic who had 70% of the five on five shot attempts when he was on the ice. His center, Sean Monahan also had a solid night with 66% of the shot attempts. Three other players had nights in the 50s, Chris Tanev, Oliver Kylington and Tyler Toffoli. The rest of the team was under water with Erik Gudbranson at the bottom with 25%.
