Not sure I remember an era (time) with so much day to day consistency as we’ve seen from the Calgary Flames this season.
I’m sure the 1989 team on their way to a 117 point season were pretty predictably good every night, but since then the Flames have been a franchise mired in slow starts, not showing up for key games, not showing up for insignificant games and the like.
This year it’s a recipe and they pretty much follow it every single night.
Start on time.
Limit chances against.
Shot volume for.
Forecheck like crazy.
Dog the puck.
And win … which they did again on Saturday night, defeating the Islanders by a 5-2 score on home ice. That’s six in a row for the Flames and three in a row to start this seven game homestand, a stand that was huge for making up games in hand and using home ice to flex the fact that they got to where they are on the strength of a very unbalance schedule.
So far so good.
The Lineup
Once again no change from Darryl Sutter as his team has won five straight.
Up front it’s Elias Lindholm with Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk, the red hot Mikael Backlund with Blake Coleman and Andrew Mangiapane, Sean Monahan with Dillon Dube and Brett Ritchie, and finally game nine straight for Adam Ruzicka between Milan Lucic and Trevor Lewis.
No change on the blueline with Noah Hanifin lining up with Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington with Chris Tanev and finally Nikita Zadorov with Erik Gudbranson.
In goal once again Jacob Markstrom, playing some of his best hockey yet in a Calgary uniform.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk 63.5%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Coleman 63.5%
Dube – Monahan – Ritchie 68.6%
Lucic – Ruzicka- Lewis 42.5%
Hanifin – Andersson 57.2%
Kylington – Tanev 69.4%
Zadorov – Gudbranson 58.1%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +11.0
Who They Playing?
The Islanders are not having a Barry Trotz like season.
They’re a miserable 26th in CF%, built on a 27th place five on five team offence, and a 23rd ranked team defence. In expected goal splits they’re a little better, ranked 17th. with a 12th ranked expected goals against per 60. So they give up shot attempts but not as much when it comes to the high danger stuff.
They’re ranked 27th in shooting percentage and 4th in team save percentage five on five, fiving them a PDO of 13th, right to the break even point of 1.000.
They have the league’s 23rd ranked powerplay and the 8th ranked penalty kill.
Fourth Line? Ruzicka Has A Game
Was interesting to hear Darryl Sutter talking about Adam Ruzicka before the game last night. It was the usual Sutter mix of positives but, and negatives but … with the overall theme that he’s improving and that he has an opportunity that he can either claim or let slip away.
Additionally he called him the third line center which is interesting on a team that has the other bottom six line containing Sean Monahan and Dillon Dube.
Does that mean he sees the team as having two third lines, or is he suggesting Milan Lucic and Adam Ruzicka are third line players as of now? Interesting.
The words didn’t hurt Ruzicka in any way as he skated out and played an important role in the win over the Islanders with the game’s first goal, and an important second period assist.
He now has 6 points in 14 games this season, pushing into the 40 point pace area that is usually reserved for say Mikael Backlund.
Very good sign.
Exploding D
Another game with some offence from the blueline as all six defenders pick up a single point; Erik Gudbranson and Chris Tanev scoring goals.
That’s a trend lately, and certainly something Sutter is pushing for, but when you see pucks go off defenders and in (Tanev) or dribble over the goal line (Gudbranson) it’s pretty clear that they’re getting some bounces when likely earlier in the year they were not.
These things have a tendency to even out.
Never hurts a player’s confidence however, and we are seeing that from all of the blueliners and specifically the big three in Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington, who are all creating offence.
Andersson Driving Play
Rasmus Andersson specifically had himself a game in creating from the blueline. His first period around the horn play using his defense partner to queue up a side wall give and go was pretty special. Andersson took the puck around the net, threw it to the point to Hanifin, got it back, went all the way around again and then found Ruzicka in the slot with his stick on the ice looking for a pass.
Quite the play.
If the Flames seriously have three 40 point defenseman on their hands this is a very different core and window than maybe some of us measured coming into the season.
Run Becoming a Just Is?
I have an annoying habit of not getting too low when the team struggles nor too high when they pile up wins in a period of time.
But honestly I’m having trouble not seeing this as a “just is” instead of a nice run as the wins pile up.
The Flames started the season well, had a stretch before the covid break where they lost some games they probably shouldn’t have. Then they came back and beat two lesser lights before getting schooled on a three game road trip that had many including myself wondering if things were coming back to Earth.
But since that stinker to Ottawa when they returned from said trip the Flames have gone 9-2-0 and look every bit the team that rolled over the East on back ot back road trips to the start the season.
The Flames are for real.
They have solid special teams, a great goaltender, a suddenly elite defense core, the best first line in hockey and now suddenly some secondary scoring.
It won’t be all rainbows and puppy dog tales, there will be some adversity but this team isn’t going to sag back to who we thought they were coming into the season.
Wow.
Special Teams
Have to give the edge to the Islanders in the special teams battle as they scored the only special teams goal.
The Flames were only given one opportunity and did nothing with it; that infamous terrible powerplay that starts at the beginning of a period and comes up lame.
The Islanders scored a late second period goal to make the third period more interesting than it should have been.
Standings and Record
The win moves the Flames back to seven points up on the Oilers with even games played. To put that in perspective if the Flames finish the last 37 games of the season at a .500 clip the Oilers would have to finish their 37 games at a .600 pace to be tied. Chances are the Flames won’t come off their .644 pace to .500 for the rest of the season, suggesting even if the Flames stumble a touch the Oilers would have to be a .650 team the rest of the way.
The Flames are one point back of the Knights for first in the Pacific, with three games in hand.
The Flames have a six point lead on the team just out of the last wild car spot in the West.
In the West the Flames jumped past the Blues and Predators over the course of the weekend, and are now 3rd in the West in points percentage.
League wide the Flames are now 9th.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 29 / Islanders 21
Face Offs: Flames 45% / Islanders 55%
Powerplay: Flames 0-1 / Islanders 1-3
Fancy Stats
Tonight’s game stayed closer than it should have for the most part, with the Flames up 3-2 after two in game that wasn’t really all that close. Five on five the Flames had 62% of the shot attempts with period splits of 53%/69% and 65% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 56%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 60%, with a 9-6 split. A team won’t lose many games giving up six high danger chances five on five in an entire hockey game.
In all situations the Flames had 58% of the shot attempts, 50% of the expected goals, and 53% of the high danger splits, with two less powerplay opportunities.
Individually the Flames were led by their dominant fourth (third?) line as Adam Ruzicka, Milan Lucic and Trevor Lewis had 76%, 75% and 74% of the five on five shot attempts when on the ice. Five other players also had 70% nights including Mikael Backlund, Erik Gudbranson, Nikita Zadorov, Andrew Mangiapane and Brett Ritchie. Rasmus Andersson, Blake Coleman, Dillon Dube and Noah Hanifin were in the 60s. Only five players were under water; the first line, Chris Tanev and Oliver Kylington.
