The Find A Way Flames was quite a thing in the 2014-15 season as Bob Hartley led an exciting and lets face it fortuitous group to many a come back in a story book season that saw them win many a game that they likely shouldn’t.
This season the Flames have embraced that moniker again, but this time they are finding a way to lose games, which was once again the case against Toronto in blowing a 2-1 lead before dropping a 4-2 contest in Calgary on Easter Sunday.
Just like the game on Friday in Edmonton the Flames played reasonably well, could or should have had a better result but found a way to come up empty.
The loss moves the team to 1-7-0 in their last eight as their season, while not mathematically over, is certainly getting into the danger of being eliminated in terms of probability.
The Line Up
At some point you’d think we’d start seeing change in the roster for other reasons. With the team falling out of things eventually we should see more youth, and just plain old missing bodies if they can find deals for expiring contract players. Tonight though we see a return of a hurt player, and a return of a scratched player plus a change between the pipes.
The Cage
David Rittich gets the start tonight. Logical choice for many reasons as they play the Leafs in back to back nights, Rittich has been excellent against Toronto all season, and Jacob Markstrom picked up the loss in Calgary’s last game in Edmonton. On the season Rittich continues to have the better numbers sporting an expected variance just under zero.
Jacob Markstrom
Goals Saved above average -0.6
David Rittich
Goals Saved above average -7.9
The Blueline
One change on the blueline with Nikita Nesterov coming in for Jusso Valimaki to anchor the third pairing with Michael Stone. That leaves the other two pairings in check with Noah Hanifin coupled with Chris Tanev and Mark Giordano with Rasmus Andersson.
Hanifin – Tanev
59% xGF in 582 minutes
Giordano – Andersson
43% xGF in 490 minutes
Valimaki – Stone
68% xGF in 24 minutes
Up Front
One change up front as well … Josh Leivo the healthy scratch with Mikael Backlund returning to action after a one game hiatus with an undisclosed injury. No change to the top two lines as Elias Lindholm centers Matthew Tkachuk and Dillon Dube, and Sean Monahan centers Johnny Gaudreau and Brett Ritchie. The third line get Backlund back as he centers Milan Lucic and Andrew Mangiapane. The fourth line was Derek Ryan between Sam Bennett and Joakim Nordstrom.
Tkachuk – Lindholm – Dube
46% xGF in 212 minutes
Gaudreau – Monahan – Ritchie
45% xGF in 106 minutes
Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane
60% xGF in 155 minutes
Nordstrom – Ryan – Bennett
68% xGF in 12 minutes
~ Data from NaturalStatTrick, and Moneypuck
Time To Change Up That 2nd Line
Honestly enough is enough.
It just doesn’t make sense to have two borderline middle six forwards (I know that will get a charge out of a few) players on the fourth line. Derek Ryan and Sam Bennett have their warts, and on a deep team firing on all cylinders they’d be happy on the fourth line. But in Calgary with the team not scoring at all why are they buried on the fourth line when either of them would be a better option, in my opinion, than Brett Ritchie with Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau.
This isn’t to take Gaudreau and Monahan off the hook when it comes to blame, it’s on them, but there has to be a better option than what they’re rolling out to make the top six better.
Dillon Dube and Andrew Mangiapane should both be top six wingers on this team, with Mangiapane’s spot on the third line replaced by either of Bennett or Ryan.
Don’t get it at all.
Michael Stone Over Valimaki and Kylington Again
I know a lot of fans are pulling their hair out with young players scratched in favour of Michael Stone.
On the surface I get that as a problem.
But until the Flames are officially calling it a season and working towards tomorrow it’s hard not to see Michael Stone for what he’s been; effective.
He now leads all Flames defenseman in shot metrics with 62% through his four games and is 5th among the defenseman when it comes to expected goal splits.
He had a bit of a rough game against Edmonton but overall he’s been pretty solid, and given the cannon he possesses from the point you really can’t blame Sutter for walking him out night after night as it stands.
David Rittich’s Start
Pretty hard not to like David Rittich’s start overall.
The first goal was somewhat questionable, not in the suggestion that it was a weak goal, but that it was unscreened and something a big league goaltender should probably get more often than not.
But the second through fourth goals were next to impossible for Rittich to stop so you can’t blame the goaltender in this one.
Had to love his comments after the game when he was asked about being dealt at the trade deadline and snapped “Don’t make a story here. This is my team and I want to stay here.”
Giordano 500 Points!
A hugely up and down season for the Flame’s captain just like the team itself and pretty much all of his teammates.
But nice to see him celebrate a huge milestone with 500 points, an unbelievable accomplishment given the fact that he wasn’t drafted into the OHL nor the NHL and started his career with a three way contract.
No matter where things go from here when it comes to his career with or without the Flames he will go down as one of the team’s best players of all time. No point in arguing that.
UnShaven Dube
Thought Dillon Dube had one of his best games of the season, as he continues to respond to the Darryl Sutter benching.
Tonight he was noticeable physically, got pucks to the net more often than any of his teammates, and was strong on the wall breaking pucks out of his own end, something he took heat for from his coach in previous benchings.
Maybe it was the shave job creating more speed on the ice with less wind resistence.
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 34 Leafs 30
Face Offs – Flames 48%
Powerplay – Flames 0/1 Leafs 0/1
Player Stats:
Points – Six different Calgary Flames with points including Andrew Mangiapane and Joakim Nordstrom with goals, and Mikael Backlund, Milan Lucic, Sam Bennett and Mark Giordano with assists.
Plus/Minus – Only four plus players for Calgary as Derek Ryan, Milan Lucic, Joakim Nordstrom and Mark Giordano finished +1
Shots – Mikael Backlund led all shooters with four shots on goal to pace the Flames.
Fancy Stats
This is going to sound like a broken record … the Flames had the better of the five on five shot attempts, but were bested in terms of high danger chances and expected goal splits. Rinse and repeat. The Flames had 54% of the five on five shot attempts with period splits of 61%/59% and a rough third with 39%. The high danger splits were 8-6 Toronto, and Calgary had 43% of the overall five on five expected goal split.
In all situations, the Flames had 57% of the shot attempts, 50% of the high danger chances and 45% of the expected goal split.
Plucky again, but not good enough to win a hockey game.
Individually the Flames were led by Joakim Nordstrom, Derek Ryan and Sam Bennett as the entire fourth line finished with 60%+ on the night. Elias Lindholm, Chris Tanev, Michael Stone, Matthew Tkachuk, Dillon Dube and Milan Lucic also had good nights. Rasmus Andersson and the second line of Monahan, Gaudreau and Ritchie all finished under 50%.
