Sometimes you lose games you should win.
Sometimes you win games you should lose.
Tonight was a complete steal by Jacob Markstrom as the Calgary Flames skated away with an improbable 4-3 victory in Toronto while being massively out played, out shot, and out chanced.
A circus save in the third will make all the highlight packages, but that was just one of many shots turned away by Markstrom – and many more blocked by teammates as the Flames held on for dear life most of the night.
But it’s two points.
And that’s a 4-1-0 record under Sutter, and a guaranteed split in Toronto before the team travels to Ottawa to see if they can finally figure out the Senators.
The Line Up
Loads and loads of consistency for the Flames under Darryl Sutter since he took over two weeks ago. We’ve seen very little by way of whole sales changes which was expected with the straight wins, but continues tonight even with the dispiriting loss to the Oilers on Wednesday night. No changes up front for the 5th straight game, a minor tweak on the blueline, and no change in goal.
The Cage
Lots of talk about riding a number one starter, burnout, wearing out a goaltender for the playoffs in an effort to make the playoffs. Darryl Sutter certainly likes to ride a number one guy, so not a shock to see Jacob Markstrom again tonight. The added fuel for the player of course is the ability to bounce back quickly from a rough effort; a third period that completely caved in on the goaltender. Markstrom was the team’s best player until he got hurt in February. He needs to get back to the point where he’s one of the team’s best players, somewhere in the top five or six. If not this team doesn’t have much of a chance.
Jacob Markstrom
Goals saved above average 0.51
David Rittich
Save percentage above average 0.41
The Blueline
The only change to the roster comes in the third pairing with Nikita Nesterov coming in for Oliver Kylington. The Kylington – Juuso Valimaki pairing struggled mightily against the Oilers on Wednesday posting a 35% xGF% which clearly stood out for the coach and hence the change. It’s not all on Kylington though, as Valimaki wasn’t sharp either. Nesterov seemed to be playing a gear slower than the rest of his teammates in the first win over Montreal. I’m sure it’s been discussed. Look for Nesterov with Valimaki, Mark Giordano with Rasmus Andersson and Noah Hanifin with Chris Tanev.
Giordano – Andersson
43% xGF in 378 minutes
Hanifin – Tanev
63% xGF in 457 minutes
Nesterov – Valimaki
56% xGF in 241 minutes
Up Front
No changes again. So it’s Elias Lindholm with Matthew Tkachuk and Dillon Dube, Sean Monahan with Johnny Gaudreau and Brett Ritchie, Mikael Backlund with Milan Lucic and Andrew Mangiapane, and a fourth line of Derek Ryan with Sam Bennett and Josh Leivo.
Tkachuk – Lindholm – Dube
49% xGF in 179 minutes
Gaudreau – Monahan – Ritchie
44% xGF in 53 minutes
Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane
62% xGF in 124 minutes
Bennett – Ryan – Leivo
55% xGF in 37 minutes
The Start
The start was interesting to say the least.
Three first period goals is generally a good thing, but don’t be fooled it was probably the worst period of hockey they’ve played under Darryl Sutter since he took over.
They turned pucks over, relied on Jacob Markstrom far too much, and were thoroughly outplayed giving up all eight of the recorded high danger chances in the period.
Absolutely amazing to escape with the lead.
Markstrom Rebounds
What a second and third period from Jacob Markstrom.
And that isn’t to say the first period was a problem, just that he really shut the door the rest of the way. Didn’t love the Kerfoot goal, but he just kept pushing the scales in his direction the rest of the night including a huge save against Austin Matthews in the third period preserving the win.
Said earlier that he has to be one of the team’s best players and tonight he and Tkachuk were dynamite in dragging a mostly listless team to victory.
“Calgary Likes to Slow the Game Down Under Darryl Sutter”
Huh?
Just before the anthems that was Elliott Friedman’s big summary about the upcoming game, suggesting they couldn’t handle Edmonton’s speed and it was on Toronto to play with speed.
I’m not going to suggest that the Calgary Flames have the quickest group in the league or North Division, but it’s out and out wrong that Darryl Sutter is trying to slow the game down.
In his daily comments playing with pace, playing quickly, both in moving your feet and moving the puck quickly has literally been his mantra.
Big miss from an out of market national broadcaster there.
Standing Up for Teammates
Just such a great sign to see Calgary players jumping in to defend aggressive hits on their players.
The hit on Johnny Gaudreau was borderline, probably legit if you had to make a call, but still a tough hit on a diminutive star player that shouldn’t go unanswered if there is still a code.
Two layers to the response.
First Juuso Valimaki comes in and wrestles Holl in what was pretty much a non scrap truth be told.
Then Matthew Tkachuk comes out later in the period and challenges Holl again, and after a long delay with the mitts sort of off and on they had a spirited fight with a great take down from Tkachuk to take the decision.
Tkachuk and the Room
Speaking of Tkachuk though, that whole course of events pretty much puts to bed any of the thoughts or suggestions that there is an issue around Matthew Tkachuk in the room.
Or at least if there was an issue, it looks to have been put to bed.
Tkachuk coming to the defense of Tkachuk was a bit of a surprise, I thought Brett Ritchie was going to get it done a few shifts earlier, but he either chose not to get involved or asked and was turned down (guessing Holl saw the video of earlier this week).
When Tkachuk came out of the penalty box the Flames to a man stood and tapped their sticks on the boards, with numerous players giving him a head pat when he returned.
Seemed like a pretty tight group environment to me.
Time to Change the Lines?
The top line has come a long way since Sutter took over, they’re scoring now, and pushing the play probably pretty much every time out (game totals). The checking line makes sense defensively and chips in every second game; pretty solid.
I like the fourth line, including tonight so you’d like to keep them together.
But to do that you’d have to ignore the fact that the second line is just getting their lunch handed to them on a nightly basis since Sutter took over. Brett Ritchie is a good story, a solid physical player, but he’s not a second line player, and certainly not the defensive conscious the Flames need to play with Gaudreau and Monahan.
I think the easiest fix is to put Leivo back there.
And if not that then Derek Ryan, with Bennett centering Ritchie and Leivo.
It’s not working.
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 18 Leafs 27
Face Offs – Flames 49%
Powerplay – Flames 1/3 Leafs 0/3
Player Stats:
Points – Rasmus Andersson had two points for the Flames tonight, both assists, the only Calgary player with a multi point game.
Plus/Minus – Four players with a +2 night for the Flames; Elias Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk, Dillon Dube and Juuso Valimaki.
Shots – Derek Ryan and Mark Giordano both had three shots on goal to pace the Flames.
Fancy Stats
This was a train wreck for the Flames, but a solid night for Jacob Markstrom. The Leafs had 65% of the five on five shot attempts with period splits of 71%/52% and 76%. In terms of high danger chances the Flames had only four to the Leafs 11 for 27%. Toronto had 68% of the expected goal split five on five.
In all situations it wasn’t much better. The Leafs had 66% of the shot attempts, 78% of the high danger chances and 70% of the expected goal split.
It wasn’t even close!
Individually a rough night of course. Only two players had positive nights; Derek Ryan with 60% and Sam Bennett with 50%. Josh Leivo, Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev had decent nights all things considered. Don’t think we’ll see Nikita Nesterov tomorrow night as he finished with a puffy 10% on the night with Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan also having miserable nights.
