I’ve often found it interesting how much one outcome can change the narrative of how a team is playing or the direction they are heading.
A three game win streak followed by two overtime losses is a five game point streak. But if you lose the next one it’s now a three game losing streak just like that.
The Flames lost three in a row last week, and the bounce back of three points out of four in Toronto was tempered by how they sat on a scoreless tie in the second game in the Six and then completely face planted in their game in Ottawa on Thursday night.
With a 6-3 win this afternoon they now have points in three of the last four, and are at least looking to be somewhat competitive with a falling Montreal in the battle for the fourth spot in the North Division.
It all means nothing without a similar effort on Monday however. Baby steps are fine if they continue to go in the right direction, but this season all we’ve seen is two steps forward, two steps back … rinse … repeat.
The Line Up
Given how putrid the Flames were in execution, effort and mental sharpness on Thursday night it came as a bit of a shock that there wasn’t a single player swap in the roster for the matinee today in Ottawa. There were hints that Oliver Kylington might come in for Nikita Nesterov but at puck drop it was the same 18 skaters, and starting goaltender; with a few changes in forward combinations.
The Cage
The Flames placed Jacob Markstrom on retroactive 7 day injured list back to February 20th, so he wasn’t even allowed to dress today even if the day to day status of his injury was cleared. That changes tomorrow. So David “head butt” Rittich is back in the net, looking for a bounce back. You worry about the emotional side of the game with the Czech stopper, given his exit and that nasty fourth goal the other night.
Jacob Markstrom
Save percentage above average -0.322
David Rittich
Save percentage above average -0.009
The Blueline
No changes on the blueline by way of who’s dressed or the pairings. Mark Giordano goes with Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin with Chris Tanev, which leaves a third pairing of Nikita Nesterov with Juuso Valimaki. I liked the handful of games where Giordano lined up with Valimaki before the start of this skid, but I get not wanting to bury Andersson on the third pairing as well.
Giordano – Andersson
43% xGF in 248 minutes
Hanifin – Tanev
61% xGF in 309 minutes
Nesterov – Valimaki
57% xGF in 189 minutes
Up Front
Same 12 skaters, same fourth line, but then all new other than that. The big change is Elias Lindholm back to the wing, and Sam Bennett to center as the team essentially goes back to the bubble lines from August. Sean Monahan between Johnny Gaudreau and Lindholm. Mikael Backlund between Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane. Sam Bennett between Milan Lucic and Dillon Dube. The fourth line, as mentioned, stays the same with Glen Gawdin between Joakim Markstrom and Buddy Robinson.
Gaudreau – Monahan – Lindholm
77% xGF in 8 minutes
Tkachuk – Backlund – Mangiapane
59% xGF in 38 minutes
Lucic – Bennett – Dube
63% xGF in 31 minutes
Nordstrom – Gawdin – Robinson
29% xGF in 8 minute
The Start
About as good as it can get.
The Flames were on their toes and immediately took the play to the Senators off the hop.
Five minutes in the Flames were up 2-0 and Milan Lucic had rag dolled Austin Watson in a scrap. Things were going well.
When the dust settles after 20 it’s 3-1 Calgary, with the Flames having 20 shots on goal.
Rittich’s Performance
David Rittich was perfect five on five stopping all 25 of Ottawa’s even up shots on goal.
The Senators did all their damage on the powerplay scoring three times on eight shots on goal, two of which were high slot shots through a screen with Rittich down and unable to see the shooter.
He wasn’t lights out like he was in Toronto, but it was certainly a solid bounce back game for the backup.
The Mystery of Joakim Nordstrom
Just can’t figure this guy out.
No doubt he’s very good killing penalties, we’ve all seen that. But five on five the guy has been a complete tire fire. He literally can’t carry the puck without losing it, can’t pass it without missing the mark, can’t take a pass, takes the wrong routes on the forecheck.
So today he gets the puck shorthanded and just takes it to the house and almost scores shorthanded, a play that had him take the puck around a defenseman and then around a goaltender before hitting the outside of the post.
Is there something magic about his game when short? Doesn’t make any sense.
Effort vs Ready
I’ve always wondered how often it’s honestly true that hockey teams fail to put in an effort.
Professional hockey players not trying? Seriously? Yet it seems to come up most seasons for most teams. You see them mail the odd one in.
I do think that working hard isn’t the same as being at your best and being ready to play. Today the Flames played fast in the first 2/3 of the game. It was noticeable. They moved pucks quickly, feet were moving as players got themselves into open ice, their was a marked difference in their jump.
Simply put they played on their toes.
As I said in the 6-1 loss game story, being exhausted and having a rough game … especially with 5 games in 7 nights in 4 cities is understandable to some degree. But not in a season with far too many periods or games missing in action.
Today was a step back in the right direction, but it can’t be a one off.
Pucks to the Net
One of the biggest things I noticed early in this one was the number of pucks Calgary directed to the net.
They had 25 first period shot attempts, and 20 shots on goal.
As a result they got some bounces through rebounds, or pucks hitting sticks and chins and were able to capitalize. Too often this season the Flames get the puck in and then cycle it for 15-30 seconds without ever getting a shot (or attempted shot) on goal.
Have to hope they learned from that today.
Back to the Gym
Not sure why Mark Giordano was angry (and hilarious) when he took a Senator into the wall in the second period with an almost WWE throwdown to cap the hit off.
Something must have happened earlier in the shift.
The audible “Back to the gym!” was something you don’t hear every day in a hockey game.
The Sportsnet crew showed him yelling in the warm up as well. Giordano is a good man, and a good but quiet leader. I’m sure an up and down season like this with the room in question has to grate on him daily. Looks like today he tried to be part of the solution vocally as well as through work ethic.
Counting Stats
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 38 Senators 34
Face Offs – Flames 51%
Special Teams – Flames 1/4 Senators 3/6
Player Stats:
Points – Mikael Backlund led all skaters for Calgary with a three point day on the strength of a goal and two assists.
Plus/Minus – Backlund and Andrew Mangiapane both finished the game at +4.
Shots – Backlund, Mangiapane and Sean Monahan all had four shots on goal to lead the team.
Fancy Stats
Score effects are a thing, and the Flames pretty much led this one from start to finish, but it was a bit concerning to see the team take the foot off the gas. Something that could be seen in the five on five stats for the game. In terms of shot attempts the Flames held the lead with 57% on the night on period splits of 64%/60% and 40%. The concern though was high danger chances where Ottawa actually finished with 8 to the Flames 5. Expected goals ended up in the Calgary column at a 53% rate.
In all situations the Flames had 55% of the shot attempts, they were even in high danger chances, and Calgary had 55% of the expected goal split despite only having two thirds of Ottawa’s time with the man advantage.
Individually, the Flames were led by Sam Bennett at 68%, just edging out Mark Giordano, Rasmus Andersson and Matthew Tkachuk who were also in the mid 60s. Another seven players were all above the 55% mark. The fourth line of Glen Gawdin, Buddy Robinson and Joakim Nordstrom were all under 40% as the Flames fourth line woes continue.
