Last Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 27th – 3 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
There isn’t much. The Flames don’t move into the 7th or 8th spot, they hold their familiar 6th position. But that’s it, this one is pretty much a disaster after that minor point.
The Bad:
Where do you start? The Flames have two Western Canadian rivals with lottery picks, the 1st overall isn’t Toronto, but it’s another Western Conference team. With Vancouver and Edmonton in lottery positions they will both take Fins meaning no defensemen are likely to get selected in the top 5 limiting Calgary’s options with their pick. Not my best work at all.
Simulation Rating:
I give this a 2 for ramifications in who will select who. The Flames hold the 6th spot so it could have been worse but the teams selected that kept them there were the worst possible two teams to win the lottery.
The Picks:
1. Colorado – Matthews
2. Edmonton – Laine
3. Vancouver – Puljujärvi
4. Toronto – Dubois
5. Columbus – Tkachuck
6. Calgary – Sergachev
7. Winnipeg – Chychrun
Flames Pick:
The Flames don’t get a chance at any of the top five forwards so they reach somewhat down the list and draft rugged defenseman Mikhail Sergachev. If this happens I wouldn’t be surprised to see if they knock on the doors of Winnipeg, Arizona and Buffalo first, seeing if a move down is on the table.
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 5.0
Poll Average 5.1/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 3.0/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.0/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.0/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.6/10
Day 8 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.6/10
Day 9 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.5/10
Day 10 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.2/10
Day 11 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.7/10
Day 12 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 1.5/10
Day 13 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.7/10
Day 14 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.3/10
Day 15 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 8.9/10
Day 16 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 8.9/10
