Last Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 26th – 4 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
No Edmonton. That’s about it. Toronto gets Matthews, the Canucks bring Laine out West, and Bruins jump the works and steal the third spot in the lottery. The hedged aspect of this is in effect, that is when things are bad at the top it generally means the Flames don’t slide down to 7th or 8th and with that you can take a silver lining out of the 6th spot and not lower.
The Bad:
Two Canadian teams at the front, both of them annoying as hell when it comes to media coverage and at least to Vancouver’s point their fans. I like the Bruins getting rewarded for their near miss of the playoffs, it might slow down the tanking in future seasons, but the top of this lottery is painful to watch.
Simulation Rating:
I give this one a 5 because the Flames hold down the 6th spot and Edmonton is no where to be seen. But it certainly isn’t a banner day for lottery simulations.
The Picks:
1. Toronto – Matthews
2. Vancouver – Laine
3. Boston – Puljujärvi
4. Edmonton – Chychrun
5. Columbus – Dubois (Calgary narrowly misses out)
6. Calgary – Tkachuk
7. Winnipeg – Nylander
Flames Pick:
With the 6th pick the Flames nail down Tkachuk and avoid that 7th slot that could result in a player that I guess I’m suggesting they wouldn’t want and perhaps moving back for additional assets. Tkachuk is a good fit for the Flames, no doubt, but any time they are forced to take the last of the 6th it doesn’t feel like a draft where they had options. Through 16 simulations the Flames have drafted Tkachuk 6 times and Dubois 4 times.
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 5.0
Poll Average 5.3/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 3.0/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.0/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.0/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.6/10
Day 8 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.6/10
Day 9 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.5/10
Day 10 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.2/10
Day 11 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.7/10
Day 12 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 1.5/10
Day 13 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.7/10
Day 14 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.3/10
Day 15 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 8.9/10
