Last Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 25th – 5 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
The top pick goes East, the good guys pick 2nd, and both Western rivals get shut out. What’s not to like about this iteration of the draft lottery simulation?!
The Bad:
That damn Maple Leaf logo on the right botches the perfect score up. The Leafs get Puljujärvi but they don’t get Matthews or Laine so just a minor setback in an overall excellent day.
Simulation Rating:
Lots of points for shutting out the Oilers and the Canucks, a Flame lottery pick above the 3rd spot is also a huge win day. I have to 9 out of 10 on this one.
The Picks:
1. Buffalo – Matthews
2. Calgary – Laine
3. Toronto – Puljujärvi
4. Edmonton – Bean (Red Line hype, and the Oilers always chase hype)
5. Vancouver – Chychrun (Defenseman their target)
6. Columbus – Dubois
7. Winnipeg – Tkachuk (I do like the story of father son in this one)
Flames Pick:
When I think forward to the draft lottery I keep thinking any spot, don’t care about one, any spot will do. However getting the 2nd pick and Laine would be almost even Steven with getting the first pick and Matthews to me. Laine has gained ground and by picking 2nd you as a fan base never have to wonder if you picked the right guy as you took the one that wasn’t taken. Laine in camp would be an amazing September with line combinations and experimentation. Sign me up!
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 4.9
Poll Average 5.2/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 3.0/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.0/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.0/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.6/10
Day 8 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.6/10
Day 9 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.5/10
Day 10 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.2/10
Day 11 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.7/10
Day 12 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 1.5/10
Day 13 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.7/10
Day 14 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.3/10
