Last Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 24th – 6 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
Not a bad day actually. The Oilers and Canucks missed out on a lottery pick along with the Flames, and Calgary only slid to the 6th spot for the draft in June. Top team is Columbus, two of three teams in the East.
The Bad:
Calgary without a lottery spot, the Leafs landing one of the top three, and Laine going to a division rival in Arizona. Really sets up an interesting weekend however as the Yotes push the Jackets for the first overall pick to bring their native son home.
Simulation Rating:
I give this a 7 out of 10, as I do think this is a good outcome for the Flames. As I said Edmonton and Vancouver miss out, and almost as importantly I like the Flames options at 6 so much more than 7 or even 8.
The Picks:
1. Columbus – Matthews
2. Arizona – Laine
3. Toronto – Puljujärvi
4. Edmonton – Bean (Red Line hype, and the Oilers always chase hype)
5. Vancouver – Chychrun (Defenseman their target)
6. Calgary – Dubois
7. Winnipeg – Tkachuk
Flames Pick:
With the Oilers and Canucks both selecting defensemen, the Flames don’t have to entertain moving down as they get their choice of Dubois and Tkachuk, drafting the more versatile Jean Luc Dubois out of the Q. Dubois makes the Flames out of camp after looking great in Penticton, and shares a room on the road to start the season with Ben Bishop.
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 5.1
Poll Average 5.2/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 3.0/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.0/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.0/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.6/10
Day 8 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.6/10
Day 9 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.5/10
Day 10 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.2/10
Day 11 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.7/10
Day 12 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 1.5/10
Day 13 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.7/10
