On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 19th – 12 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
I was on a roll, clearly said roll is over. Toronto and Vancouver in the top two, and another Canadian team that doesn’t feature fire shooting out of a C as the other lottery pick. I am happy to report that the Oilers are nowhere to be found, so there’s that. But other than the shock at West Edmonton Mall for not picking first overall there’s not a lot to hang your hat on unless you consider Matthews taking over for McDavid as the lead TSN story every day is a good thing.
The Bad:
Calgary falls down to the 6th spot and out of the top 5 and that rare air we’ve been breathing for three straight days of draft simulations. Watching Matthews on TSN every day will be a pain in the but and I certainly won’t enjoy Laine in Vancouver 5 times a season.
Simulation Rating:
Flames move down = bad. Leafs and Canucks picking in lottery spots = brutal. However this is saved by the fact that all of Alberta got shut out. I’m still giving it a 2 though.
The Picks:
1. Toronto – Matthews (tanking works!)
2. Vancouver – Laine
3. Winnipeg- Puljujärvi (good fit for Winnipeg)
4. Edmonton – Chychrun (they have to take a dman don’t they?)
5. Columbus – Dubois (like him at center)
6. Calgary – Tkachuk
7. Arizona – Nylander
Flames Pick:
The Flames get Tkachuk again, this time more due to the Jackets preferring Dubois over Tkachuk with his ability to play center and the wing. A good consolation for the Flames sliding backwards as they get a winger with grit that can play in their top six. Not a terrible result, but not a home run. Given the conversation about draft picks in the last few days … let the debate about 2nd assists begin!
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 4.9
Poll Average 5.3/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.3/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.1/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.1/10
Day 7 – Flames Pick 3rd, Poll result 8.8/10
Day 8 – Flames Pick 1st, Poll result 9.3/10
