On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 17th – 15 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
First off the credit. No I’m not capable of landing the Flames a lottery win in two straight days, my wife wanted a go at it and this was her one and only simulation this morning. Calgary gets the top three pick, the top two go east to non-rivals in the Eastern Conference, and every other Canadian team gets pushed out of the top three.
The Bad:
Drafts are about ledges, and as we get closer to the draft it appears there is a ledge between spots two and three as Laine pushes Matthews for number one overall. Getting the third spot is a great result but by most scouts/lists it’s not the same as pulling in a one or two overall spot. Clearly though I’m pushing it to find anything negative when the Flames get a top three pick and all other Canadian teams are shut out.
Simulation Rating:
Lots of moving pieces when you come up with a rating. Where do the Flames finish sure, but also where are their rivals? Yesterday I had the result rated a 9 because the Flames got the 2nd overall pick and they were the only Western Canadian team to make the mark. Today I’m going with a 9 again as the Flames standing alone from Canada is worth a lot even though they did slide back a spot.
Through 7 days the Flames have drafted 6th three times, 7th twice, 2nd and 3rd for an average of 5.3.
The Picks:
1. New Jersey – Matthews (great result for the anti-tanking crowd)
2. Buffalo – Laine (will look great with Eichel)
3. Calgary- Puljujärvi
4. Toronto – Nylander (brothers unite)
5. Edmonton – Chychrun
6. Vancouver- Tkachuk
7. Columbus- Dubois
Flames Pick:
With the Flames snagging Jesse Puljujärvi they are able to check all the boxes on their wish list. At 6’3″ and already 200 pounds he adds some size to the top six, he shoots right something they are in dire need of, and he has mad mad skill. Like the Laine pick, picking up Puljujärvi gives the Flames all kinds of options for their top three lines, not to mention the powerplay. Unless they break up one of the top two pairs I see the new draft pick lining up with Sam Bennett giving the Flames enviable top nine balance and depth.
Happy to see Matthews in New Jersey, really seems like a good fit, for a team that was supposed to be terrible this season but battled like crazy. For the Sabres getting Laine probably makes up for a lot of the McDavid lottery loss last season, as they get the 2nd pick two straight seasons and form a formidable duo.
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 5.3
Poll Average 5.0/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.3/10
Day 5 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.1/10
Day 6 – Flames Pick 2nd, Poll result 9.1/10
