On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 16th – 16 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
I did it! I did it!
The Flames get a lottery pick and the Oilers and Canucks are nowhere to be found. This isn’t 1st overall, so I’ll hold that as a 10 result, it is however a 9 and the best outcome so far on try number six.
The Bad:
For the first time I have to reach on the bad as really not a lot went wrong. Sure the Leafs hype machine will be all kinds of annoying with the Matthews hype leading up to the draft, but that’s a small price to pay when you get the Flames at #2 and their Western rivals pushed out of the top three.
Simulation Rating:
Easily 9 out of 10, and I almost want to call it a ten given the elation this result would cause. If this did come to pass it would be interesting leading into the draft to see a) if the recent Laine catching Matthews talk would have the Leaf pick up in the air 2) if the Leafs would look at dealing the pick to say Arizona. Not that I’d care, the Flames are picking 2nd!
The Picks:
1. Toronto- Matthews
2. Calgary- Laine
3. Arizona- Puljujärvi (after trying to move up)
4. Edmonton – Chychrun (No point in drafting a forward)
5. Vancouver – Dubois
6. Columbus- Tkachuk
7. Winnipeg- Nylander
Flames Pick:
The Flames are elated to draft Patrick Laine with the 2nd overall pick, a perfect fit for the club. The team, being weak on the right side adds a big, strong, quick, dominant right wing that will step right onto the roster next season and make an impact. The big question would be where would he play? The default answer for out of town media would be “with Gaudreau and Monahan on the top line” but I honestly think the Flames would work out the pairings and play Laine with Bennett on the third line which clearly would no longer be the third line. Man would this make for a fun off season of wondering!
Simulation Summary (5 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 5.7
Poll Average 4.4/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 2.3/10
Day 4 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 4.1/10
