On Saturday night the HNIC crew thought it best to run the lottery simulation 100 times and report the results. They were in and around the actual odds as expected, which proves my coming point. Don’t run the thing 100 times, run it once and get your head around what that would mean.
Every day between now and April 30th Calgarypuck will run the simulator once and then look at what that would mean. We will assess the result on a scale of 1 to 10 with 1 being the worst (see Edmonton) and 10 (Flames land Matthews) being the best.
April 14th – 18 Days to the Lottery
The Good:
I guess if you’re a nationalist you might be happy with three Canadian teams occupying the top three picks of the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, but assuming you’re a Calgary hockey fan, today’s result has very little in the “good” category. The Oilers get pushed down, so that’s something. And the Flames only slide down one spot to 6th and not 7th because two of the three teams winning come from ahead of them, but that’s about it.
The Bad:
Once again the Canucks win the lottery, which is now twice in four days in this exercise, and that’s painful. The Leafs sliding into the second spot doesn’t help much either, nor does Montreal getting the second Finn. I’m going to cling heavily to my theory that I’m effectively debunking bad Flame’s luck by burning it out on a daily basis leaving nothing but good tidings when the actual lottery happens in 16 days.
Simulation Rating:
A 1 rating comes with Calgary drafting 7th and the Oilers, Canucks and Leafs in the top three so it’s certainly better than that. Not feeling too rosy about it with Matthews going to Vancouver however so I’m giving this one a 3.
The Picks:
1. Vancouver – Matthews (Back to back generational players to Western Canadian rivals)
2. Toronto – Laine
3. Montreal – Puljujärvi
4. Edmonton – Chychrun (the Oilers need help on the blueline clearly)
5. Columbus – Dubois (Jackets go with the C/LW over the pure winger)
6. Calgary – Tkachuk
7. Winnipeg- Nylander
Flames Pick:
Calgary gets a choice between a former Jet’s son and a former Flame’s son but go with the heavier, grittier player in Tkachuk. Not a lot to dislike about a winger that plays with edge to compliment his skill. With Monahan and Gaudreau not being the most physical of players, and Bennett still very young the Flames could certainly use some edge in their top six. Good chance of making the club out of camp.
Simulation Summary (4 Iterations)
Flames Pick Average 6.5
Poll Average 3.5/10
Day 1 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 3.8/10
Day 2 – Flames Pick 7th, Poll result 2.1/10
Day 3 – Flames Pick 6th, Poll result 5.2/10
