No point in beating around the bush right? Just get right out and say it in the title. What Treliving should do, as if I’m in a position to know better of a) what he can do b) what other GMs are willing to do or even c) what his ownership will let him do.
With all those unknowns I have a choice; 1) leave it and let things play out or 2) have an opinion and with that clearly I’m going the second route (way more entertaining I hope).
But before any action plan can be hashed out the base has to be established for where I think they are. Bob Hartley mentioned yesterday that they need to “shock the league” or “be one of the best NHL teams the rest of the way”, or “win two of every three games”. These snip-its are great, they clearly show an understanding that the Flames are going to have to do something very unexpected to make the playoffs, and given that the management group has to already be making plans based on the league not being shocked.
At least I seriously hope so.
The math … the current expectation of needed points to make the playoffs in the West is 90, meaning the Flames will need to go 21-10-3 over their final 34 games. As win percentage that comes down to .662 which is right on the mark of Hartley’s win two of every three comment (.666), so once again, good, no illusions in that number.
So now we’ve established that this isn’t going to happen, or at least it isn’t likely and therefore plans to be successful shouldn’t be made. Or put another way they shouldn’t put next year on hold to see how the next few weeks play out. They don’t have to start a fire sale tomorrow morning, but I’d expect Treliving is doing his usual 18 hour days of diligence and is building a book on where players can go, and how much he may see in return for them.
The next item on the list is political correctness. Sad that our society has made it so caveats need to be placed on every action or statment, but that’s the lay of the land unless your last name is Trump so I’ll do the following with the word “tank”. Players should try to win, coaches should try to win, and managers should decide what the team needs both now and in the future. If the team moves assets they are not tanking unless its truly obvious they are heading to the playoffs. If they’re not then moving pieces is prudent. The Flames are in the second camp, so this isn’t a suggestion of tanking.
So finally what would I do?
1. Get the goaltending solved:
The Flames crease has been the single biggest nagging issue hanging over this team for the past calendar year. Right before the all star game last year Joni Ortio was called up and proceeded to will the Flames to four straight victories. From that point on there’s been a nagging sense of uncertainty between Jonas Hiller, Kari Ramo and Ortio. It looked solved when Ramo wasn’t signed before July 1st last summer, but then made even more cloudy when he was signed on July 1st itself. I think Treliving had a plan to move Hiller and it backfired, but the team can’t go into another summer with this anvil on their back.
Ideally they’ve have a solution within, a young player ready to join the team’s young core of positional players and the group would grow together. That is very much in doubt however. Ortio has had a step back this season, a regression that doesn’t write him out of the Calgary story, but does make it impossible to assume he’s ready for the job. Jon Gillies has missed most of his first pro season making his development at very least stalled, and completely ill-prepared to handle the NHL gig next year. And Mason McDonald is both too young, and potentially rattled from a less than stellar World Juniors. The answer is not within, at least from the standpoint of youth.
Similarly I think we can all agree that bringing back the same pair from this season is not the answer. Both had tough starts, but Ramo has recovered and at least deserves to be in the conversation next year, but shouldn’t be handed the starting job. Whether you bring Ramo back though depends a lot on what you do with the other goaltender position as if Ramo becomes the backup he’s likely priced himself out of town.
With that my suggestion …
You deal Dennis Wideman to the Red Wings for Jimmy Howard (clearly if he’s suspended 20 games this comes off the table). Personally I’d prefer Brian Elliot of the Blues but his contract doesn’t come with the same need to jettison as Howard’s in Detroit. The budget conscious Blues wouldn’t see value in taking on Wideman as their contracts expire at the same time, so I turn my attention back to Detroit.
With Howard having 5.2M for three more years his timeline is almost exactly what the Flames need to buy time for Gillies to ready himself. If Gillies is ready a year earlier than great, you push Howard out on an expiring contract. The Red Wings take on Wideman, which they should be happy to do given the extra two years of cap relief they pick up in the transaction. The Wings likely would have to toss in a sweetner because of that disparity which could come in the form of a pick or a right winger that helps the Flames in depth, maybe a guy like Martin Frk.
Is Jimmy Howard the answer? He has a resume and experience, plus with on a team that has a Johnny and a Dougie plus prospects named Kenny and Freddie acquiring a Jimmy certainly seems to have a cosmic sense to it.
2. Get down to numbers with Kris Russell
With Wideman off the books, the Flames are better positioned to settle their defense core before the deadline. With Giordano’s contract kicking in next year and a core of the captain, TJ Brodie and Dougie Hamilton the Flames can’t afford to tie up too much money on a 4/5 defenseman. If the Russell camp can be talked into $10-11M over three years get the deal done and don’t trade Russell at the deadline. If it pushes above $4M annually then it’s time to part ways and the Flames have another trade chip.
3. Don’t talk contract with Jiri Hudler
It’s been a tough season for Jiri Hudler with very little known as to why. It could be injuries, it could be a lack of foot speed in an ever more quick NHL. It could be the distraction of his imminent free agency or it could be some of the attitude issues suggested by some in the media this season. But the bottom line is would you want any of a hurt, slow, distracted or moping player? None of those instances scream the need to negotiate a new contract. His time in Calgary is done. Hopefully GMs see the production of last season as a cheap add and drive his value up. Playing well down the stretch wouldn’t hurt the player or the organization one bit.
4. Don’t over think Kari Ramo
I get how gawd awful goaltending can make one think you have great goaltending when gawd awful moves to average, but that’s all it is; an improvement. Ramo has been better but he hasn’t stolen a lot of games, nor has he outplayed his counterpart at the other end on too many occasions. If for some odd reason a team comes a calling for his services due to his improved play, his expiring contract and his ability to go “Kipper-like” for short stretches, let him go if the return is decent. As I said above he isn’t the answer as a number one and his contract demands for next season probably out price him as a backup as well.
5. Lose the sentiment for non-core assets
The Flames have some likeable players that haven’t firmly established themselves as components that the team simply has to retain in moving forward. Some good guys and good stories, but not assets that shouldn’t be moved if the right suitor comes along. Lets talk tiers …
Salary Freedom – If someone should need some assistance with a veteran that the Flames clearly don’t see prominently in their long term future they effectively get a get out of jail card. These players would include Ladislav Smid, Derryk Engellend and Mason Raymond. Do it!
Non Core Core – Kris Russell would be in this category if he was signed, but he’s not so he’s in the above situation of resign or deal. This group is smaller and includes Matt Stajan and Lance Bouma. both play an important role in the room and the culture, but not in the overall bottom line of every day wins and losses. Bouma is a different cat in that he’s impact when healthy but his health is a growing concern. Stajan I back all the time, the guy is a warrior, but the team is deep up the middle and heading into some big contracts and that should be considered.
Projects – Josh Jooris and Joe Colborne. Both have upside, physical tools and age on their side. However both just may have plateaued as depth players and could be soon muscled out from challenges from Stockton. You don’t move these guys as a must but you certainly look at offers and go all in if the offer exceeds your expectations. For example Colborne has size and hands, he teases … but if a club comes along and gives you a third round pick for him you jump.
Too Good To Turn Down – Guys outside the core, but still important support pieces that you have zero interest in moving. I have Mikael Backlkund, Michael Frolik, Micheal Ferland in this group. His impulse should be “no” but if the offer amps up you have to look at it as they aren’t required pieces going forward. (Wanted to put one of the big three defenseman in this group but couldn’t do it)
6. Ramp Up Development
If the Flames are out, which we know they are … then it’s time to start looking at Calgary’s core pieces and how to best develop them for the rest of the season. For this we look at each player individually.
Mark Giordano – the veteran of the group. No need to micro-manage this player as he’s a hatched egg, you know what you’re getting. Give him ice and let it happen.
Dougie Hamilton – he’s the package, but he needs to know he is. Give him more powerplay time, sprinkle in more penalty kill and keep him consistently over 20 minutes a night. It will pay off in spades next season.
TJ Brodie – let him create. He’s an up and down the ice player and Hartley has already taken the shackles off, but go even further by letting him experiment night in night out. Get him to shoot more. As an aside, try him with Hamilton on a long term basis and see if they develop chemistry. This is Calgary’s future 1/2 pairing, may as well take a look at it.
Johnny Gaudreau – take the pressure off him. He doesn’t have to do it on his own every night. Get him to use his linemates more and as a result he’ll be less predictable going forward.
Sam Bennett – get him back to center. He’s adapted well to the wing and become the player we all expected in the last dozen games but his bread and butter is down the middle so get him acquainted as a pivot so he’s set to take that roll next year. Clearly more powerplay time is needed as well.
Sean Monahan – get him away from Johnny Gaudreau its harming his development. Monahan is cerebral, he thinks the game possibly too much. He was emerging as a driver but when Gaudreau exploded he’s more and more moved to the “get the puck to Johnny” center, and stunted his development. Gaudreau could dominate with me as his center so he’ll be fine. But get Monahan with lesser wingers so he has to create more on his own.
7. Test drive the tweeners
Waiver rules are meant to assist players from getting stuck in deep organizations. A top prospect on a team that never seems to fade like the Red Wings could literally be stuck in Grand Rapids for life if waiver rules didn’t put them on exposed lists to other teams after a requisite number of pro seasons or games played. The Flames have a few more heading to that list in Markus Granlund and Tyler Wotherspoon. Why wait until training camp to see if these guys are up to the snuff when you can put them into trial by fire situations down the stretch. If they falter you feel a heck of a lot less concerned about losing them, but if they succeed you go a long way to establishing next year’s roster now, which can only make training camp less hazy.
A special case is Derek Grant who has lit the AHL on fire this season for the Stockton Heat. He’s in that Drew Shore situation where one more NHL game makes him waiver eligible. The twist on Grant though is his UFA status at the end of the season. Will the Flames sigh him? Should they if he’s a waiver risk? Giving the kid an extended look down the stretch would certainly go a long ways in helping make that decision. His career AHL stats havne’t been as good as this season which suggests he’s had a horseshoe up his ass or he’s taken his game to another level. Find out!
So there you have it. My action plan for the second half of the 2015-16 season. The full time job of NHL general manager is never as simple and I’ll be the first to admit that and the likely foibles of my action plan. But it’s a starting point and certainly a discussion starter, and perhaps a great comparison point to what actually happens.
A gripping rebuild to date with top picks living out expectations in Bennett and Monahan, emerging mid round picks turning into stars in Gaudreau and Brodie. Toss is shocking trades like Hamilton to Calgary and the Cinderella story of a walk on becoming captain and quite a story is being written in Calgary. A step back in year two doesn’t take away a thing from where this seems to be going.
Enjoy the ride.
