I’m a patient guy.
When you hear Brian Burke and Brad Treliving desperately trying to temper expectations after a remarkably successful season that featured a playoff birth and series win, I get it.
The Flames won a lot of games after trailing.
The Flames won a lot of games despite being out “fancied”.
The Kings, Avalanche and Stars all had off years, and should step back into the “norm” when the 2015-16 season comes around.
The Flames were destined to be in a battle and possibly slide back out of the playoff picture, two occurrences that don’t for a second suggest anything is wrong with the rebuild as it stands, nor take the lustre off of a great 2014-15 season.
Did you notice that word “were” in my last statement?
On Friday afternoon in Florida, Treliving and the Flames changed the arch or trajectory of their franchise in acquiring Dougie Hamilton from the Bruins without giving up any of their young core to do it.
Had he kept the picks and drafted 18 year olds the Flames would have restocked their cupboard, but the time frame for waiting for an 18 year old defenseman to develop would have been 3 to 5 years.
With TJ Brodie on the backside and a trio of young forwards up front in Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau and Sam Bennett you could forgive the Flames executive for seeking a transaction that would see a young core forward flipped for a young core defenseman. Two forwards and two defensemen is an excellent foundation for which to build a hockey club. The balance is to die for.
By adding a 22 year old defenseman to that core the Flames now have a group of 5 young players (aged 24, 22, 22, 20 and 19) and an ageless captain at the core, and the future is looking a little more immediate than expected.
The team isn’t built, they’re not cup ready, but they have improved given the fact that Giordano and Hamilton will both seem like “adds” to the team that finished up the playoffs in Anaheim. All four of the young 5 will come back more experienced, especially after the playoff tribulations gained last Spring.
But what does that mean to next steps and team building?
Patience
Treliving isn’t done, he’ll make changes, all rosters go through change each and every season. However has there been a time in recent Flame’s history where so many core pieces were already in place? Has there ever been a time when said core pieces were so similar in age and so close in age for that matter?
The biggest thing needed form the Flames now is patience. Look to add supporting pieces but Sam Bennett is going into his rookie season, this team should contend when he’s a full time contributor. Monahan and Gaudreau have already proven production (Gaudreau in a smaller sample size), but when Bennett is ready to be a 70 point player the Flames will be ready to contend, but you have to wait for that to happen.
He’s a talent, that could be this fall and if so the Flames are likely looking to push up the standings and not down this fall. Exciting times in Calgary.
The Hudler Situation
I was a huge proponent for dealing Jiri Hudler at the draft this off season, much to the chagrin from many a fan who really don’t want to break up the band.
I’m waffling after the Hamilton trade.
No things haven’t changed. The Flames should move Hudler for asset reasons as they are unlikely to sign him a year from today, and will possibly lose him for nothing if he’s not dealt at the deadline this season. But with Hamilton in the fold, maybe you take pause on this and look at the team as one less likely to squeak into the playoffs, and one more possibly ready to make noise once they make it.
The Flames had the best matchup possible in finding Vancouver waiting for them in the first round, they would probably have been wiped off the matt by any of the other 6 playoff teams in the West. But they may stack up as a 5-6 team this upcoming season, and with that maybe you can risk the Hudler exposure for the good of team development and winning and let it ride?
Much less clear for me now than it was a week ago.
Either way you have to see if you can get Hudler signed for either less money or less term than my feared 6 years and $6M and maybe just maybe they can keep the shoeless one around.
Moving Blueline Depth
I was hoping against hope for the past 6 months that the Flames would find a way to acquire a true #4 defenseman, a move that would insert a player between Dennis Wideman and Kris Russell, send one player to the third pairing and improve the team’s 5/6 spots, making the team more competitive. Now with the signing of Jakub Lakladal (not over stating his impact, good depth), and the acquisition of Hamilton the Flames have inserted TJ Brodie 2, and sent both Wideman and Russell down the depth chart. Quite a feat.
The Flames likely have the option of dealing one of Russell or Wideman for a right wing that can upgrade the forward ranks and gain more balance up front.
I wouldn’t give either player away, but their stock is up, and it’s certainly an option.
If the Flames are in on Franson, which I doubt or at least I doubt the term will work with the Flames structure, then a sign and deal of one Calgary’s existing defenseman would certainly push things forward even more.
Additionally, moving a guy like Wideman on the backend, does help in keeping Hudler up front, more on that later when I dig into the salary cap.
Free Agent Frenzy
My gut says the Flames should stand down on Canada Day, and do nothing.
It seems even the most successful free agent signing days in the end turn out not as good as once thought. Earlier this year I wrote a piece looking at the top ten free agent signings in Flame’s history
http://www.calgarypuck.com/2015/03/calgarypuck-list-flames-top-free-agent-signings (sorry linking feature isn’t working)
Jiri Hudler tops the list, and only added to that title with an amazing finish to March and April since I gave him the nod, but clearly the Flames haven’t made a lot of hay on July 1st over the years.
The Flames were worried about getting the cap floor last season, so some understanding is needed in evaluating the moves that brought in three players last July in Jonas Hiller, Mason Raymond and Deryk Engellend. Ironically, its the “worst” signing from last July, Engellend, that may have the most value to the team a year later as the Flames are likely looking to shed both Hiller and Raymond’s contracts.
Targets that the Flames will look at? Cody Franson as discussed above or Michael Frolik. The rest of the list will either cost too much or not be a good fit for what the Flames are trying to accomplish.
Do the Flames need a guy like Barrett Jackman? Less so now after the changes in my mind, but I guess we’ll see.
It certainly seems foolish to assume the Flames aren’t busy doing something these days.
Salary Cap Mapping
Talk through the Spring has centered about logical changes to the Flame’s salary cap situation, namely the extension to captain Mark Giordano, plus new pacts down the road for young forwards Monahan and Gaudreau. The trio will much up a lot of camp space. In that discussion I’ve been strong on the side of moving Hudler as I don’t see him fitting into the cap situation with all the young talent maturing and needing new contracts.
I certainly didn’t envision the addition of another $6M contract into the mix this past weekend.
Below is the squad with Hudler resigned (Ramo singing was at press time)
Assumptions:
– Red are signing estimates
– Black are knowns
– shaded is a rookie player not on the roster that then takes the place of a player moving on.
– a lot hinges on Giordano at 7.5, Monahan and Gaudreau signing for under 6, and Hudler’s extension.
As you can see the Flames get really really tight a year from today. Not enough space in my mind for any contingencies.
The chart below is the same thing but with Hudler omitted, it gives the Flames more space.
Cap space comfort is a subjective opinion, but if the Flames want to keep Hudler long term, they had better move a Denis Wideman to make space.
Happy Canada Day everybody, look for the prospect rankings coming soon!
