What a run by this plucky group.
A rough second period, where they took too many penalties and handed the momentum to the visitors and nearly paid for it.
Heading to the third period down a goal the Flames flip the script, go up one, lose the lead, but then win it 4-3 in overtime with Nazem Kadri scoring the game winner.
How much fun is this?
Epic, for everything hockey in late March in a season that was supposed to end with a top five pick.
The Blues win as well, so nothing gained, but the come from behind keeps them in it, and pushes Vancouver and Utah further out of the discussion.
Keep it rolling.
The Lineup
The Flames are hoping to get an infusion of key veterans for tonight’s game, bolstering their top four on the blueline, and completely lifting up the third line up front.
But according to the lightly attended morning skate we’re going to have to wait on Mikael Backlund, while welcoming back Joel Farabee and Mackenzie Weegar.
So look for no change in the top six’ Nazem Kadri centering the kids line with Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil, a 2nd line of Morgan Frost between Jonathan Huberdeau and Matt Coronato, and then a fourth line with Kevin Rooney between Ryan Lomberg and Adam Klapka. The third line goes back to a 2/3 shutdown line with Yegor Sharangovich between Blake Coleman and Joel Farabee.
Big lift to the second pairing with Weegar back with Joel Hanley, Kevin Bahl with Rasmus Andersson a third pairing of Jake Bean with Daniil Miromanov.
Dustin Wolf back in goal for the Flames.
Stats Dive
Interesting to watch the evolution of Jonathan Huberdeau in a Calgary jersey.
He won’t be the 115 point guy again, but he has certainly found a way to be more productive.
March 2025 is his 20th month of hockey in Calgary, and it’s interesting to look at how he’s achieving points in the first 10 months vs the 2nd 10 months, a split that is defined by New Year’s Day 2024
In the second 10 months Huberdeau is up 86% in goal scoring, 9% in assists and 29% in points.
But digging deeper, he’s doing more of it on his own, as he’s up 41% in primary assists, and down 36% in secondary assists. If you look at primary points he’s up 41% overall.
And it’s not hard to make the argument that he has been somewhat unlucky in not picking up more secondary assists along the way. Huberdeau is 1st in the NHL in terms of primary/total assist ratios for forwards with 500 minutes of play, and at least one secondary assist. He sits at 93% in primary assist/total assists/60.
Players with a similar total assist tally average 60% primary, which suggests at least 5 points more in the overall total.
He’s not a $10.5M man, but a guy on a 65 point pace would average $7.5M making him $3M overpaid, and not the $5M to $6M thought in his first half of his time in Calgary. And the cap is going up.
Wolf’s Start
Nice change for Dustin Wolf; he gets a relatively easy first period in this one.
The Flames have a 8-2 high danger split advantage after 20, with the Kraken getting the only powerplay. Seattle with 0.44 in expected goals through 20 and Wolf perfect.
The second period was played relatively evenly five on five but the Kraken ate them up with the man advantage on the way to a two goal period on 1.63 in expected goals.
Dustin Wolf beat in the third on another flukey little tip through him, the second one like that on the night.
Deserved better but gives up three against 3.05 in expected goals from Seattle.
Odds and Sods
Little surprised to see Brayden Pachal scratched after his stellar game on Long Island. But then Daniil Miromanov probably put together his best three games of his season in the NY area. Good to have depth I suppose. … Really looking forward to Mikael Backlund’s return. The team seems to have found a solid top six, so it will be nice when Backlund turns a nice six into a solid nine. Right now it’s a little scotch tapey with Sharangovich on that line. … Better start than I expected. Way better jump than you usually see on the first game back after a long eastern trip. … Adam Klapka with a great energy shift resulting in his 2nd of the season. Happy for the fourth line to get on the board, they’ve struggled of late. … Silly penalty by Adam Lomberg, but a spirited kill by the Flames to gain momentum out of it. Tacky call perhaps, but don’t give the officials that much power in a game you need to have. … Flames getting little help from the Habs (against St. Louis) on the out of town scoreboard; Blues up three with a minute to go in the 2nd. … Frustrating second period from the Flames. They started well, and had all the momentum but back to back penalties gave the Kraken the tie, and all the momentum, and eventually the lead as they Flames give up their lead and head to the third down a goal. … Is Rasmus Andersson hurt? Exhausted? Twice he was skating in sand giving the Kraken partial or full breakaways. Neither rush was his fault, but his ability to support or close up was limited. No juice. … Huberdeau keeps his point streak alive with the third period assist. … Man that was some drama. Down a goal going to the third. Tie it up and then go ahead. Have it tied up by Seattle and win it in overtime on a dramatic breakaway off a Dustin Wolf save. Unreal game. Honestly who’d a thought we’d have moments that matter this much with 6 days left in March? … Kadri with two goals and Coronato with two assists. Clutch.
Fancy Stats
I thought the Flames had a solid game five on five; they were clearly the better team. The issue was too many penalties, and with that Seattle running the show up a man. Without the discipline issue the Flames probably cruise in this one. The Flames, five on five, had 64% (59%/56%/77%) of the shot attempts, 67% of the high danger chances, and 58% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 59% of the shot attempts, 56% of the high danger chances and 46% of the expected goals.
Seattle’s powerplay was ultra dangerous all night.
Individually, the Flames were led again by Kevin Rooney with an xGF% of 100% on the night. Hard to beat that. He was joined at the top by his two linemates Adam Klapka and Ryan Lomberg over 80%. The did only play 6 minutes. Kevin Bahl with lots of minutes also over 80%. Jonathan Huberdeau and Rasmus Andersson were in the 60s. Only six players under water; Joel Hanley, Nazem Kadri, Joel Farabee, Connor Zary, Morgan Frost and Jake Bean.
