This has to be the 6th time this season that I’ve written this team off only to see them rise back off the canvas and get back into the war.
Thought they were done in November with a loss in Pittsburgh. I certainly thought they were spent when they lost in Carolina in their most recent road trip.
After getting smoked last night in Toronto, their third straight loss it felt kind of done as well.
But then the Flames skate out and dominate the Rangers in MSG, winning the game by a 2-1 score (that flattered the Rangers immensely) to reel in the teams they are chasing and staying in front of the teams that are chasing.
Back in it, and a game in Jersey on Thursday.
The Lineup
Get your head kicked in and you’re bound to see change. In this case a lot of it. And everywhere.
Three lineup changes (if you call a goalie swap a lineup change), with one forward coming out in Dryden Hunt, one defenseman coming out in Brayden Pachal, and a different goaltender getting the start.
But on top of that we see change to three of the four forward lines.
Back to the Future with Nazem Kadri centering the kids line with Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil, a new interesting line of Morgan Frost between Jonathan Huberdeau and Matt Coronato, a new shut down line with Yegor Sharangovich between Joel Farabee and Blake Coleman, and then a fourth line with Kevin Rooney between Ryan Lomberg and Adam Klapka.
On the blueline Huska continues to search for defenseman number six with the current six and seven options both struggling. No change to the top four with Kevin Bahl with Rasmus Andersson and Joel Hanley and Mackenzie Weegar, and then a third pairing of Jake Bean with Daniil Miromanov, Brayden Pachal sitting again.
Dan Vladar gets the start in goal goal; his 8th start in 9 Calgary back to back second games.
Stats Dive
The Flames don’t score goals.
This will come as a surprise to exactly no one.
But how bad is it? How much worse has it gotten? And does it cover every part of their game?
The average NHL hockey club scores 2.42 five on five goals per 60 minutes as an average.
The Flames this season, have never been at that level.
| Month | GF60 | SH% |
| 10/1/2024 | 2.28 | 8.65% |
| 11/1/2024 | 1.63 | 5.54% |
| 12/1/2024 | 2.21 | 7.80% |
| 1/1/2025 | 2.13 | 7.77% |
| 2/1/2025 | 1.43 | 4.95% |
| 3/1/2025 | 1.67 | 6.51% |
Not a single monthly average on the season has been at that 2.42 goals/60 level, and it’s gotten progressively worse since the calendar turned to 2025.
The last six weeks they’ve been 35% worse than the average NHL team.
Interestingly enough, the powerplay isn’t as dreadful as five on five play when it comes to goal production.
The average NHL team produces 7.90 goals / 60 with the man advantage. The Flames have pretty much been in that zone all season if you omit October.
| Month | GF60 | SH% | PP Min/GP |
| 10/1/2024 | 5.4 | 17.97% | 5.6 |
| 11/1/2024 | 7.8 | 21.62% | 4.6 |
| 12/1/2024 | 8.1 | 23.25% | 4.3 |
| 1/1/2025 | 7.7 | 20.79% | 4.8 |
| 2/1/2025 | 8.5 | 16.13% | 6.2 |
| 3/1/2025 | 7.1 | 23.56% | 4.2 |
Vladar’s Start
Not a bad bit of work for a back to back after playing the third period on Toronto last night.
He gives up his first shot on goal to Panarin, though he didn’t have much of a chance, and then only has six more shots in the next 38 minutes of play.
The Rangers were listless most of the night.
On the night the hosts have 1.58 in expected goals in all situations and Vladar perfect after his first shot on net.
Odds and Sods
Pregame I found the forward lines intriguing. Connor Zary moves up the lineup, but with Backlund out you don’t see Pospisil relegated. I like the Frost/Huberdeau/Coronato line on paper, it has a good mix. And on the blueline I don’t blame Huska for sitting Brayden Pachal, as he’s been sketchy of late. Seems to have lost his game. His replacement isn’t much better in most of the same areas, but you have to sit struggling players. … Just when you think you’re out, you’re right back in! Flames with a great first period tonight, erasing an early 1-0 lead to score the next two, badly out playing the Rangers in the first 20 minutes. Calgary gets goals from Nazem Kadri and Matt Coronato, who was jacked playing in front of friends and family. … What a difference playing the Rangers and their lack of defensive coverage. Way more entertaining when the opposition is somewhat lost. Wish they could find willing opponents to ignore details every night. … Odd Ryan Miller moment to finish the first. He acts like his hand was severed at the end of the period, although the replay showed not much happened, and he was happily on the ice to start the second. Stinger and went away? Dramatic? Guy is a douche so you just never know. … Flames money in the second period again giving up very little. No scoring, and the only time the Rangers really pressed were in two occasions; the first four on four, and the second shorthanded. … Love the reconfiguration of the top nine. Better if Backlund was in the lineup of course, but you have to give Huska credit for finding three units that really seemed to have chemistry…. Further to that; Jonathan Huberdeau could have easily had a hat trick tonight, but ended up with one assist. A post, and three other blue chip chances to which he came up empty. … Quite the game from Matt Coronato as well. Clearly feeling it from the excitement in playing his first game in MSG, he scores a goal and could have easily had another four points. Hope he gets to 20. … Flames give up very little again in the third period, as the Rangers finish with only 13 shots on goal. Incredible road game from the Flames.
Fancy Stats
Dominant road game for the Flames, despite the scoreboard ending in a squeaker. In the meat of the game though, a different story as the Flames ran the Rangers show all night. It wasn’t even close. The Flames, five on five, had 60% (58%/75%/54%) of the shot attempts, 79% of the high danger chances, and 68% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 57% of the shot attempts, 76% of the high danger chances and 65% of the expected goals.
The Flames were 16-5 in high danger chances on the night.
Individually, the Flames were led by Ryan Lomberg with an xGF% of 97% on the night. Sure that was only 7 minutes, but he made it count! He was joined at the top of the list by his center Kevin Rooney with a 56% night. Six other players in the 80s too; Matt Coronato, Morgan Frost, Jonathan Huberdeau, Joel Hanley and Mackenzie Weegar. Only five players under water; Yegor Sharangovich at 7% (you didn’t read that wrong), Blake Coleman, Joel Farabee, Daniil Miromanov and Jake Bean.
