The Flames are a thin team to begin with.
They don’t score many goals, and use a relatively thin blueline to do their best to protect their best player, goaltender Dustin Wolf.
With their play driving shut down center out, and his obvious replacement suspended the Flames just didn’t and don’t have the horses to play 60 minutes with the league’s elite.
So it comes as little surprise as the Flames go down 4-2 to the Avalanche on Friday night in a game where they had 3 shots on goal through 30 minutes of play.
If Mikael Backlund is out long term this could get ugly, quickly.
The Lineup
Forced change is never a good thing. Never.
Tonight the Flames are forced to do without two of their best ten forwards with the injury to Mikael Backlund and the suspension to Connor Zary. With that a callup; Dryden Hunt from the Wranglers and the additional insertion of Adam Klapka.
So look for Nazem Kadri with Jonathan Huberdeau and Matt Coronato, Joel Farabee with Yegor Sharangovich and Blake Coleman, third line of Morgan Frost between Adam Klapka and Martin Pospisil, and then a fourth line with Dryden Hunt with Ryan Lomberg and Kevin Rooney.
On the blueline a non forced change; Kevin Bahl with Rasmus Andersson and Joel Hanley and Mackenzie Weegar, and then the third pairing of Jake Bean with Daniil Miromanov, with Brayden Pachal getting his second healthy scratch of the season.
Dustin Wolf gets the start in goal goal again.
Stats Dive
The Backlund Loss #1:
The Flames have played 793.5 minutes against elite forwards this season, and Mikael Backlund has been on the ice for 299 of those minutes or 38%.
That’s a lot of tough sledding.
His linemate Blake Coleman was along for most of those minutes, posting 277 in total or 34.9%.
793.5 minutes over 64 games is 12.4 minutes of five on five hockey tonight against the Avalanche that the Flames will not have Mikael Backlund to defend.
What a time of year to lose a key cog like that.
The Backlund Loss #2:
Mikael Backlund has logged 153 minutes shorthanded this season which is 25% of the total of all forwards. If you assume two forwards on the ice killing penalties (wouldn’t work for 5 on 3 kills), that’s 50% of the time shorthanded.
Only two other forwards have 100+ minutes in Blake Coleman at 132 and Kevin Rooney at 105.
The Backlund Loss #3:
Facoffs.
Mikael Backlund hasn’t been an ace in the face off dot, but there is little doubt about his importance to the team in taking the big ones.
This season Backlund has taken 46.6% of the defensive zone faceoffs, and more defensive zone face offs than any forward in the NHL.
Shorthanded Backlund has taken 68.1% of the face offs.
Those that thought the guy should be scratched or sent to the fourth line are about to get an education in value.
Wolf’s Start
Fairly quiet first period for Wolf, as the Flames didn’t give up a whole lot.
The Avs open the scoring with a seeing eye tipped shot from the point that gets by him. Solid first but not a lot of work.
Wolf brilliant in the second period as the Avs put up 1.61 in expected goals in the middle 20 minutes alone. Gives up the one goal on a breakaway or he would have escaped without a blemish.
A third period goal gives the Avalanche three on the night with 3.19 in total expected goals.
Solid night from Wolf but maybe not a game stealer?
Odds and Sods
I thought the shorthanded Flames had a pretty good first period. They didn’t give up much and probably had the better of the chances. But the effort goes for naught with a Colorado fluke goal with 6.5 minutes to play; Lindgren with a point shot that went in through a screen off Dryden Hunt. … Avalanche find the momentum off the goal and were probably the better team for the final third of the frame. … Yegor Sharangovich. A lot of fans frustrated with the guy, for me I feel for him. He’s just lost. Confidence is gone. Guessing he bounces back next year, but I don’t think they can find him this campaign. … Ryan Huska noticed the same and demoted him quickly in the second period. With the same change up Klapka headed to the fourth line, and Morgan Frost moved up to the Backlund spot on the second line. … I said above that many have underestimated the impact of Mikael Backlund, even at 36. After watching the first half of this game I honestly think this team may drop into a top ten draft pick if he misses 10 games. … I love the howl. I appreciate the Duran Duran song, but why can’t we get a little “Clap for the Wolfman” worked into the playlist at the Saddledome? … Better second half of the second period for Calgary, but not before the Avalanche go up 2-0 on a Kelly breakaway midway through the period. Calgary with some chances, but no finish. Where have we heard that before? … Flames continue that 2nd period momentum into the third period and push hard. They finally get on the board when Blake Coleman finds a rebound. From there the Flames kept pushing and hit a post but couldn’t find the game tying goal. Sadly the Avalanche go ahead two again when Kelly scores his 2nd of the night. …
Fancy Stats
At the halfway point of the game it didn’t feel like the Flames were even in it. They couldn’t generate anything with their depleted forward group and were putting up pretty much zero push back. The last half of the game they found it, but then you wonder if it’s score effects with the Avs up two goals. The Flames, five on five, had 49% (45%/38%/64%) of the shot attempts, 48% of the high danger chances, and 39% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 51% of the shot attempts, 50% of the high danger chances and 40% of the expected goals.
Individually, the Flames were led by Kevin Rooney with an xGF% of 75% on the night, but he only played 6 minutes, which I’m not sure counts. His linemate at 10 minutes, Ryan Lomberg was right behind him at 65%. The true leader was Joel Hanley with a 60% night (21 minutes). Jake Bean with a rough night at 8% on 12 minutes, Adam Klapka at 14%.
