Pretty sure this is my fault.
When the Flames beat the Canucks on New Year’s Eve I changed camps. I was never on the cheer for a loss bandwagon, but I was certainly on the cheer for a win, and if a loss happens so be it group. But after that win I changed colours; the team was in a playoff spot in 2025 it was time to throw the shoulder behind the thing.
And with that back to back regulation losses, including tonight’s 4-1 loss to the Nashville Predators.
The Flames were the better team pretty much from start to finish, but they couldn’t convert on their chances and gave up two powerplay goals on just two chances.
The Lineup
Two minor changes after the loss to Utah on Thursday night. A change in goal, where Dustin Wolf comes in for Dan Vladar. And a small change to the 12th forwards, with Andrei Kuzmenko in for Walker Duehr. No change on the blueline.
No change to the top line with Nazem Kadri between Jonathan Huberdeau and Martin Pospisil, Mikael Backlund back with Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato, a third line with Connor Zary between Yegor Sharangovich and Jakob Pelletier, and a return to the usual fourth line of Kevin Rooney with Ryan Lomberg and Andrei Kuzmenko.
One the blueline we see Rasmus Andersson and Kevin Bahl. Mackenzie Weegar with Joel Hanley and Jake Bean with Brayden Pachal on the third pairing.
Dustin Wolf with the start in goal, as stated.
Pre Game Stats Dive
What’s that? Ah – Playoffs? Don’t talk about – playoffs? You kidding me? Playoffs? I just hope we can win a game
Yet here we are right?
The calendar as turned. You can no longer talk about a hot start or sustainability to the same degree. The Flames are right in it, and chasing a team that seems to be self destructing with each on going day.
Will they make it?
I’m guessing no, but if they continue to stay in it they’ll finish somewhere in the 15th to 17th spot, and with that forfeit their pick to the Montreal Canadiens.
But is it a huge deal? The Florida Panthers aren’t exactly lighting it up. If their first half pace continues we may have a gap in the range of 5 between the two teams (if they don’t go on a playoff run of course).
Hardly sky is falling territory.
Wrangler’s Watch
Just when it looked like the Wrangler’s were finally going to bend/break from call ups; Matt Coronato, Walker Duehr, and Jacob Pelletier, and then their head coach, they get back untracked.
The Wranglers have three straight wins over the New Year’s season and into early January, and have the highest win percentage in the AHL.
Here is the point per game pace from the remaining “prospects” on the team.
Hunter Brzustewicz:
| Month | GP | G | A | Pts | PPG |
| 10/1/2024 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.2000 |
| 11/1/2024 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.1111 |
| 12/1/2024 | 11 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 0.7273 |
| 1/1/2025 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.5000 |
Samuel Hozek:
| Month | GP | G | A | Pts | PPG |
| 11/1/2024 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.4000 |
| 12/1/2024 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0.7273 |
| 1/1/2025 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.0000 |
William Stromgren:
| Month | GP | G | A | Pts | PPG |
| 10/1/2024 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0.5000 |
| 11/1/2024 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 0.8000 |
| 12/1/2024 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0.9000 |
| 1/1/2025 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1.5000 |
Rory Kerins:
| Month | GP | G | A | Pts | PPG |
| 10/1/2024 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 1.1000 |
| 11/1/2024 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0.9000 |
| 12/1/2024 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 1.0909 |
| 1/1/2025 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.0000 |
Wolf’s Start
Literally nothing to do in the first period for the first 16 minutes, and then two very difficult saves in the last three minutes. Not the easiest way to tend net, but he got it done in the first period.
Zero chance on either of the second period powerplay goals; one on a broken play, and another with a back door dish.
He’d probably like to have that third period goal back where Svechnikov took the puck around him and buried it off a face off.
All told the Predators created 4.18 expected goals in all situations, and only got three by the kid.
Not Wolf’s issue.
Odds and Sods
That’s twice we’ve seen Connor Zary with that stickhandle in the air trick. Good hand eye! … Calgary full marks at the start of the game. Pretty much dominated Nashville in the first half of the period. … Maybe he’s listening. Andrei Kuzmenko with a shot attempt! And from a low danger area! Who cares in most cases, but big news in this example. Meaningless play but it seemed to get him into the game, and he was all around it for the rest of the first period. Now get going and get yourself moved for a 3rd rounder! … Sadly the second period didn’t go quite as well. A needless slashing penalty resulting in a Nashville goal, and then a mindless minor for playing with a broken stick and you guessed it, another Nashville goal. Have to feel for the guy. … I’ve always thought the word “bust” gets used far too frequently in hockey fan circles. A top five pick that plays 100 games can be a bust, but a mid to late first rounder that plays 385 games and counting isn’t a bust in any way shape or form. Mark Jankowski is on his way to a fairly legit NHL career after it looked like he was on the outside looking in. … The Matt Coronato as Joey Mullen story is gaining some momentum. Well maybe not with the scrap tonight, but lets ignore that for the narrative. Same height. Same accent. Same fuzzy hair. And now on a consistent basis Matt Coronato is playing a similar style; shoot first, high IQ, play driving scoring forward. The kid is dangerous almost every game now. … Mikael Backlund now just 8 goals back of 6th place in all time Flames goal scoring. That’s incredible. …
Fancy Stats
The Flames were the better team, which was clear from the eye test, but even more supported by the underlying numbers. They just can’t finish on their chances. The Flames, five on five, had 68% (80%/62%/65%) of the shot attempts, 65% of the high danger chances, and 63% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 66% of the shot attempts, 54% of the high danger chances and 40% of the expected goals. Calgary’s powerplay was just murdered compared to the Nashville version with three times as many expected goals created in two minutes, compared to the Flames with five minutes.
Individually, the Flames were led by Rasmus Andersson posting an xGF% of 82% on the night. Mikael Backlund and Jonathan Huberdeau were both in the 70s. Many players in the 60s. Only two players were under water; Kevin Rooney at 6% and Ryan Lomberg at 33%.
