What a showing from the Flames tonight.
They erase three leads, score four for the first time in 26 and snap a miserable road stretch with a 4-3 win over the Nashville Predators on Tuesday night.
The Flames were paced by their fourth line with two goals, and a gutsy goaltending performance by Dan Vladar.
The Flames return home to host the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night.
The Lineup
No actual change to the skaters dressed in the loss in Dallas, and no structural changes after the midway point in said game when Andrei Kuzmenko was promoted, and Walker Duehr demoted.
Ryan Lomberg is still not back with the team, tending to his wife so there’s no change up front. And Huska left the third pairing along as well. Only change is between the pipes with Dan Vladar back in net in place of Dustin Wolf.
Connor Zary up the middle between Andrei Kuzmenko and Blake Coleman, Nazem Kadri with Jonathan Huberdeau and Martin Pospisil, Mikael Backlund between Yegor Sharangovich and Matt Coronato, and Kevin Rooney with Jakob Pelletier and Walker Duehr.
One the blueline we see Rasmus Andersson and Kevin Bahl. Mackenzie Weegar with Daniil Miromanov. And Jake Bean with Brayden Pachal on the third pairing.
Dan Vladar back between the pipes.
Pre Game Stats Dive
Calgary has had good goaltending all season.
Sure we’ve seen the odd hiccup but over the full sample size the two guys with fancy equipment have been the strength of the team.
Through the season I keep hearing that Dan Vladar has had the more difficult starts. Is that true?
I took each goalies game log and assigned an opposing winning percentage based on who they played and where they played. If a goalie started on the road against a dominant home team, that would be reflected. If they started at the Saddledome against a terrible road team, they get the easier win percentage.
So how does it shake out?
Dustin Wolf has had an opposing win percentage of .563 with the toughest game against Dallas on the road (.846), and his easiest game against Chicago at home (.375).
Dan Vladar has had an opposing win percentage of .550 with the toughest game against Vegas on the road (.786), and his easiest game against Columbus at home (.333).
So by those numbers Wolf has had the tougher schedule.
[limitation in that these teams could have been better or worse at the time of the start, as I’m using season totals for their home and road schedule]
2024 Draft Class
A quick update to the 2024 draft class point per game club.
The “Change” column is the % of the previous season change from the last update.
Since my last update we’ve seen a pop from Parekh and Misa, a hold from Gridin and Mews, and a slip from Basha and Battaglia.
Basha is back playing again, trying to find his timing.
Battaglia had to cool down from what was an insane start to the season.
| GP | Pts | PPG | PPG 23/24 | YoY | Change | |
| Parekh | 25 | 34 | 1.36 | 1.45 | 94% | 4% |
| Gridin | 27 | 32 | 1.19 | 1.38 | 86% | 1% |
| Basha | 18 | 20 | 1.11 | 1.35 | 82% | -4% |
| Battaglia | 29 | 38 | 1.31 | 0.97 | 135% | -10% |
| Mews | 27 | 34 | 1.26 | 0.94 | 134% | 2% |
| Misa | 27 | 38 | 1.41 | 1.23 | 115% | 4% |
Vladar’s Start
Not an easy night for a goaltender.
Early on it’s three Nashville goals on only 14 shots on Dan Vladar, though I don’t know if any were his fault.
The tale of the tape has 1.13 Nashville goals expected in all situations and three against, so you can’t give him a check mark but I felt the goaltender was solid for the most part.
Streak is Dead
The Flames 25 game streak of scoring 3 or less goals is finally over.
With Jonathan Huberdeau’s late second period goal the Flames will now do no worse than the 5th worst anemic streak since 1967.
So they have that going for them, which is nice.
Odds and Sods
It will be interesting when Ryan Lomberg rejoins the team when it comes to lineup decisions. Who comes out? Andrei Kuzmenko has moved into the lineup and now up to the third line. Does that mean one of Walker Duehr or Jakob Pelletier come out of the lineup? Guessing so. Tough to call. … I think the term “bust” gets thrown around way to liberally. Mark Jankowski was certainly over hyped with the “best player in the draft” crap spouted by Flames brass after they took him. But now at 30 years old he’s nearing 400 NHL games, which is money for a guy selected in the last third of the first round. Nothing wrong with that pick … It’s amazing how high up the depth chart Connor Zary has climbed when it comes to offence creation. He hasn’t been rewarded but I don’t think the Flames have a player that creates more from nothing. …. Jonathan Huberdeau on a roll. Two points tonight. Seven points in his last five games, and a five game point streak. Started well this season and then drifted like many of his teammates, but seems to have found some chemistry with Nazem Kadri. Getting some bounces at the very least. … Brayden Pachal was one heck of a waiver pick up. Scored a goal tonight, which is great, but who had the player as the “given” on the third pairing for the season with a rotation on his left side? He’s not a core player in that he’s a top four defenseman but he’s money as a third pairing guy secured for nothing in asset value. .. Quite the fourth line night. They gave up the first goal but then scored two back to put the trio up on the night with a +1.
Fancy Stats
The Flames clearly the better team in this one, dominating all the play driving stats from period to period and getting rewarded with a big 4-3 win. The Flames, five on five, had 58% (46%/75%/47%) of the shot attempts, 67% of the high danger chances, and 76% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 55% of the shot attempts, 67% of the high danger chances and 75% of the expected goals.
Individually, the Flames were led by Andrei Kuzmenko and Connor Zary, both with an xGF% of 99% on the night. So perfect? No but 99%? Blake Coleman, Brayden Pachal, Daniil Miromanov and Jake Bean were all in the 90s as well. Only one player under the 50% mark on the night and that was Mikael Backlund at 49.53%.
