The work boots were back.
The Flames seemed to finally look dispirited in the third period of the Tampa game; the first time this season I felt the team kind of mailed it in.
Tonight though they were back to that trench warfare game plan and gave the Florida Panthers fits in a 3-0 win over the Florida Panthers, that was a lot closer than the three goal margin would suggest.
Dustin Wolf was the difference in the first half of the game or the game could have easily gone down a different path.
The Lineup
A couple of injuries and an absolute spanking on Thursday leads to significant change to the Flames lineup for Saturday night. A different goaltender, a different second pairing, and change to two of the four forward lines.
No change to the top line with Nazem Kadri between Jonathan Huberdeau and Martin Pospisil, Mikael Backlund back with Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato, a new third line with Connor Zary between Yegor Sharangovich and Jakob Pelletier, and Kevin Rooney with Ryan Lomberg and Walker Duehr.
One the blueline we see Rasmus Andersson and Kevin Bahl. Mackenzie Weegar with Joel Hanley (Daniil Miromanov scratched). And Jake Bean with Brayden Pachal on the third pairing.
Dustin Wolf back between the pipes, his last outing a rough one in Dallas.
Pre Game Stats Dive
We all knew the Flames goaltender heater wouldn’t last.
The Flames were getting out played, couldn’t score goals, but were limping along near .500 for the better part of two months on the strength of their goaltending.
Five on five their duo was top five in the league, in all situations they were further down the list behind the Flames iffy penalty killing.
But now things are starting to take on water.
| Month | SF | SA | GF | GA | Shoot % | Save % | PDO |
| 2024-10 | 269 | 327 | 29 | 34 | 10.8% | 89.6% | 100.4% |
| 2024-11 | 475 | 439 | 34 | 39 | 7.2% | 91.1% | 98.3% |
| 2024-12 | 142 | 114 | 15 | 21 | 10.6% | 81.6% | 92.1% |
The table above shows the Flames team shooting percentage coming back to October levels, but the team save percentage has really fallen on tough times.
Giving up 21 goals in just 5 games will have that affect.
2024 Draft Class Update
Quick update on the Flames 2024 draft class at least statistically.
| GP | Pts | PPG | PPG 23/24 | YoY | Change | |
| Parekh | 25 | 34 | 1.36 | 1.45 | 94% | 0% |
| Gridin | 28 | 34 | 1.21 | 1.38 | 88% | 2% |
| Basha | 20 | 25 | 1.25 | 1.35 | 93% | 10% |
| Battaglia | 30 | 39 | 1.30 | 0.97 | 134% | -1% |
| Mews | 28 | 37 | 1.32 | 0.94 | 141% | 7% |
| Misa | 29 | 43 | 1.48 | 1.23 | 121% | 6% |
Zayne Parekh with no games played, as he’s been off trying out for Team Canada.
Another tiny slip from Battaglia.
The rest of the group all had solid weeks adding to their points per game seasons. Mews is now 40% ahead of what was a pretty damn good pace last year, moving past Battaglia for the best improvement.
The numbers from this group are so far above the 1.00 mark that it seems pretty likely they finish at a point per game at the end of the season. Six players at more than a point per game in one draft is nuts.
Wolf’s Start
Kind of a cool story to have both goaltenders from the US World Junior team from Edmonton a few years ago facing off.
Even better that the guy in Calgary colours, the backup in that tournament, got the upper hand on the night.
The Flames were much better in the second half of the game compared to the first, but it was all Dustin Wolf in the first half of the game where he stoned the Panthers repeatedly.
He had some bounces too though, the Panthers hit three pretty demonstrative goal posts on the night.
The Panthers finished the night with 2.30 in expected goals in all situations, Wolf posts the goose egg, his second of the season to best the expected number with an exclamation point.
Odds and Sods
Glad to see Blake Coleman back with Mikael Backlund on the third line. You don’t find players that have elite level chemistry all that often, so there’s no point in breaking them up when you find it. It’s not a dynamic duo offensively, but they drive play to the extent that you don’t have to worry about them for their 18 minutes a night. … Tonight that line was clearly the Flames best. Scored the second and third goals, had another called back and were dominant on most shifts. … Huge opportunity for Jakob Pelletier tonight. He played well in his three games on the fourth line, but tonight he gets that look with two offensive players. In stages he has to prove he belongs in the top 13, then the top 12 and hopefully the top 9. … Amazing move by Nazem Kadri on that first period goal, but that doesn’t happen without the dogged pursuit of Kulikov by Martin Pospisil. Made the player hurry. He turned it over. … The Flames were 29th in the league in face off win percentage coming into tonight, and it didn’t get any better. Drilling down they are 30th in the NHL in offensive face offs, something that certainly plays into their inability to score goals. … I said in the last game story that the Flames were due offensively, and would start to see some bounces. In the Tampa game all three goals had a bounce to them. Tonight they got some help from the opposing goaltender as Spencer Knight was a little sketch on both Coleman and Backlund’s goals. … Jonathan Huberdeau had his six game point streak snapped tonight, but Nazem Kadri moved his to four games with a first period goal.
Fancy Stats
All the underlying numbers point to Dustin Wolf as the big difference maker for the Flames, as the home side was on the wrong side of all the five on five play driving stats. The Flames, five on five, had 45% (52%/41%/41%) of the shot attempts, 40% of the high danger chances, and 42% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 46% of the shot attempts, 47% of the high danger chances and 48% of the expected goals.
Individually, the Flames were led by Martin Pospisil posting an xGF% of 79% on the night. He was joined in the 70s by Kevin Bahl at 73%. Rasmus Andersson was in the 60s. Five players under 30% on the night; Joel Hanley, Jakob Pelletier, Brayden Pachal, Jake Bean and Connor Zary.
