I really think it’s time to just get behind this thing.
It’s unexpected.
It might not be sustainable.
But damn if it isn’t a lot of fun and a pleasant surprise.
The Flames swept their four game homestand with a 4-3 shootout win over the Kaprizov-less Minnesota Wild. The game looked locked down for the Flames with just over five minutes left; the homeside with a two goal lead. But two late Wild goals and a nail biter of an overtime period had the game very much in doubt.
The Flames are now six games over .500 and a point out of first place in the Pacific Division.
I can guarantee you nobody had that on their bingo card at a week before US Thanksgiving.
The Lineup
Not expecting much change in the Flames’ lineup with a three game home win streak coming into this afternoon’s action. They will make a change in goal, and Joel Hanley is back in on the blueline.
Connor Zary continues his audition up the middle between Jonathan Huberdeau and Blake Coleman, Nazem Kadri with Andrei Kuzmenko and Martin Pospisil, Mikael Backlund between Yegor Sharangovich and Matt Coronato, and Kevin Rooney with Justin Kirkland and Ryan Lomberg. Adam Klapka sits.
One the blueline we see Rasmus Andersson and Kevin Bahl. Mackenzie Weegar with Daniil Miromanov. And Joel Hanley back in the lineup with Brayden Pachal on the third pairing.
Dan Vladar gets the start in goal, he’s been sidelined for three straight.
Pre Game Stats
Lets talk goaltending.
Metrics like the “deserve to win o-meter” have the Flames goalie-ing their opponents essentially, as the team has only achieved “deserved to win” in 40% of their games this season.
So it’s all goaltending right?
Not so fast.
The Flames have some interesting metrics that suggest coaching and system are playing a huge role too.
The Flames give up the 9th most shots per 60 minutes in the league, so that suggests goaltending is leading the way. Digging a little deeper though and you see the quality is being snuffed out pretty effectively. The Flames have the 11th best HD/60 against in terms of shots.
They give up the 5th most medium danger level shots, and are 14th in low danger.
Less high danger is giving the two goaltenders a better chance to make the save.
Digging into goalie performance by shot type and you see some middling numbers, to be honest.
HDSV% .821 (15the best)
MDSV% .912 (4th best)
LDSV% .961 (12th)
The goaltending has been very good, but the system is keeping the ten bellers down to a minimum.
Wrangler’s Beat
Adam Klapka has made some waves in his brief tour with the Wranglers.
Up with the big club now, and somewhat buried when with the Wranglers under the storyline of Rory Kerins, Walker Duehr and Jakob Pelletier’s start to the season, but it’s Klapka who leads the Wranglers in points per game with 1.14 per game. The big winger has 5 goals and 8 points in just 7 games.
On the blueline Ilya Solovyov has added some offence to his game, as he leads all Wrangler blueliners with 10 points in 14 games. To put that in perspective, the Russian defender had only 15 points in 51 AHL games last year.
Vladar’s Start
In the first 30 minutes of the game he had to be sharp as Minnesota was the better team and were pushing pucks to the Calgary cage.
Then at the halfway point he didn’t have a whole lot to do the rest of the way, until a late third period powerplay for the Wild changed the momentum resulting in two late Minnesota goals and a completely different game for the Calgary goaltender.
Would be tough to fault him on any of the three, however.
In the end the Wild end up with 2.46 in expected goals in all situations, and Vladar gives up three. Good night for the Flames goaltender.
Odds and Sods
Still not sure how I feel about Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman playing on seperate lines. Just doesn’t feel right. I get that they needed to something with the team not scoring a lot of goals, but they’ve been lights out for 2.5 years playing together. … Another point for Daniil Miromanov on the Kevin Rooney goal in the first period. He’s really come on. So much talk at the beginning of the season about the future of the Flames blueline, but now Miromanov and Kevin Bahl are making a case to be a part of that future as well. … So clearly the Ranger game was an aberration! The Flames were right back to that low event style again this afternoon with very little by way of scoring chance or even shots on goal in either direction (Calgary getting more than they were giving up). It’s effective clearly, but it’s a tightrope to walk every night you roll that style out …. Will be interesting to see if the Martin Pospisil 2nd period goal will send him on a streak. He’s been goalless since game one of the season. Long stretch. … Flames have now scored powerplay goals in three straight games including two today to turn a 1-1 tie into a victory. … Thought Jonathan Huberdeau had a solid game for the Flames; likely could have had two goals with better luck and weaker Minnesota goaltending. … Have to give the Flames credit for sticking with it. Two late goals could have zapped their energy pretty quickly, but they got back to it for overtime and then won it in a shoot out. … The Justin Kirkland shoot out phenomenon continues!
Fancy Stats
A very low event game that turned Calgary’s way halfway through the contest, possibly with the Wild tired with their last game on a road trip. Minnesota gets their game back and dominates the last five minutes. The Flames, five on five, had 54% (58%/62%/44%) of the shot attempts, 53% of the high danger chances, and 57% of the expected goals. In all situations they had 53% of the shot attempts, 50% of the high danger chances and 55% of the expected goals.
Individually, the Flames were led by Brayden Pachal with an xGF% of 76%. Three other players in the 70s including; Rasmus Andersson, Blake Coleman and Matt Coronato. Only six players under water; Daniil Miromanov, Justin Kirkland, Martin Pospisil, Joel Hanley, Yegor Sharangovich and Nazem Kadri.
