What a streaky second half of the season.
The Flames win their fourth straight, with a 4-2 win over the LA Kings on Tuesday night, their third four game win streak in the second half.
No passengers from the Flames tonight as they continue to say in the playoff picture, still five points back with a game in hand, but now only one team to reel in.
Next up Kiprusoff night on Saturday against the Penguins.
What a season.
The Lineup
No change to the skaters since the team’s big win in Edmonton. Jacob Markstrom is now able to start, and not only backup, but Andrei Kuzmenko is still feeling under the weather and won’t suite up.
So look for Yegor Sharangovich with Jonathan Huberdeau Dryden Hunt. Nazem Kadri with Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil, Mikael Backlund with Andrew Mangiapane and Blake Coleman, and finally the current fourth line with Kevin Rooney between Jakob Pelletier and Walker Duehr.
On the blueline it’s the usual; Noah Hanifin with Chris Tanev and Mackenzie Weegar with Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington lining up with Brayden Pachal.
Jacob Markstrom (still find that suspicious on Saturday) back in the starter’s net.
Line Metrics Coming In
xGF%
Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Hunt 52.9%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Coleman 56.2%
Zary – Kadri – Pospisil 57.1%
Pelletier – Rooney – Duehr 42.9%
Hanifin – Tanev 53.3%
Weegar – Andersson 48.4%
Kylington – Pachal 51.6%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +18.1
Vladar -5.7
Wolf -8.8
Trend Tracker
One of my favourite deep dives is the old luck index, where you compare a players actual on ice goals for and against to his expected.
Models aren’t perfect, there are always shades of grey within the counts, but it’s still interesting, especially when the season is approaching March and the sample sizes grow.
Lucky Flames:
- Zary +15.2 in actual goal result over expected. +11.3 on offence and +3.9 on defense.
- Hanifin +11.7 (+6.5/+5.2)
- Kadri +9.7 (+7.7/+2.0)
- Andersson +7.4 (+8.6/-1.2)
- Pospisil +6.5 (-0.3/+6.8)
Some thoughts … Should probably avoid penciling that Kadri line for second line production next season with the bounces they’ve gotten this year. Also interesting that Pospisil is negative offensively when his linemates have filled the net after he’s changed.
Unlucky Flames:
- Sharangovich -14.5 (-1.0/-13.5)
- Greer -7.5 (-3.8/-3.7)
- Backlund -5.3 (-4.2/-5.3)
- Coronato -4.8 (-3.9/-0.9)
- Oesterle -4.7 (-0.6/-4.1)
Some thoughts … Imagine if Coronato got some of the puck luck that Connor Zary has received in breaking into the NHL? Not a surprise to see Huberdeau climbing the ranks with his point per game streak at two months. He was the poster child for negative values through the first three months of the season.
Jacob Markstrom’s Start
Such an interesting night.
Nothing to do for the first 32 minutes.
Then two quick LA goals has Markstrom likely quite frustrated.
But then he shuts the door and is a huge part of the Flames icing the game and securing the victory.
The numbers? .909 save percentage with 20 saves on 22 shots. He gives up two goals against 2.39 expected to add to his Vezina seeking goals saved above average.
Huberdeau’s Game
Another point for Jonathan Huberdeau tonight as he continues his almost 60 day hot streak.
But it’s not just the points.
I was as guilty as anyone looking for something, anything in his game to latch on to when things weren’t working. But now the list is growing.
The strong passing game is there, but now with less turnovers. He’s winning more puck battles, using his size and is noticeable in scrums. And defensively he’s quicker to get back and find a man on the backcheck.
I didn’t watch him as closely when he was a Panther, but he seems to be reinventing himself.
Game Flow
The Flames gave up literally nothing in the first period. Sure they had the only two powerplays and sure it’s the offensively challenged LA Kings, but regardless they gave up nothing. They didn’t score either as the two teams blanked the first period, Calgary with 10 shots on goal, the Kings with 3.
The second period was a heck of a grind. Between two teams clogging things up and about eight minutes between a whistle it became more of a trench war than a hockey game. Calgary with more puck control and zone time, but neither team generating anything that approaches high danger chances. Twelve minutes into the frame things finally break loose. First Daneault gets some room in the neutral zone and walkers into a slapper that goes off Andersson’s stick and then the post; 1-0 Kings. The Flames tie it up soon after with Noah Hanifin hitting a streaking Andrew Mangiapane who walks in on a breakaway and beats Talbot easily. Tie game. Calgary goes up 2-1 when Dryden Hunt gets the puck out of his own zone after a Markstrom ten beller. Sharangovich to Huberdeau to Coleman and it’s a Calgary lead. The Kings tie it up when Sharangovich turns the puck over to Fiala and then he and Weegar bet beat to the net by the player to tie it up on a back hander.
More of an even third period with the Flames and Kings exchanging “mid” chances both directions in the see saw game. The Flames break free on a goal that was similar to the King’s first goal of the game (Daneault) when Hunt chips the puck into the middle for Sharangovich who rips up the ice and beats Talbot by shooting through a screen and off the LA defenseman. Flames lead 3-2. The Flames take a late penalty that the Flames kill off and then hit the empty net to put things away when Mikael Backlund pulls off a seeing eye shot. Flames win 4-2.
Odds and Sods
I think we can put the Kuzmenko is getting benched talk behind us. Steinberg on his radio show this afternoon said that Kuzmenko was so sick on Saturday that they put him in a car and sent him back to Calgary. He was regaining strength yesterday so did some powerplay prep, but wasn’t able enough to work with a line five on five. … Not sure I remember the last Flames game I’ve seen where the opposition is on pace for less than 10 shots through the middle of the second period. That’s a blanket. … Speaking of which, the Flames are not a fun team to play these days. Everyone is bought in, on the same page, and working their asses off. No square given. … Have to say Dryden Hunt is growing on me, and that’s from someone that was losing it every time he got moved up the roster. May be a late blooming bottom sixer there. Strong on the puck and smart. … Will never understand why some fans rag on Andrew Mangiapane. Solid player, and a great play driver. … Think the Flames have found one in Brayden Pachal. He’s not going to be a top four defenseman (though he may have to be next week), but I think he’s a solid 6. … Dryden Hunt says it’s been a lot of fun.
Special Teams
Both teams go 0-3 on their respective powerplays so call it a draw.
Digging deeper the Flames forced the issue more, generating 0.86 expected goals compared to the Kings 0.18.
So Flames take the special teams on a drill down.
Standings and Record
More good and bad.
Starting with the bad, the Predators win as well so the Flames are still five points out of a playoff position.
The good? The Flames pass the Blues and now have the Predators and the Predators alone to set their sights on.
So interesting with Jersey circling both team’s goaltenders.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 37 Kings 22
Face Offs: Flames 51% / Kings 49%
Powerplay: Flames 0-2 / Kings 0-3
Fancy Stats
The Flames played a smothering game and with that had more zone time and more shot attempts. But when they broke down they broke down, losing the higher danger battle and putting pressure on Jacob Markstrom. Five on five the Flames had 65% of the shot attempts with period splits of 74%/74% and 52% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 50%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 44%, with a 7-9 split.
In all situations the Flames had 63% of the shot attempts, 62% of the expected goals, and 53% of the high danger splits. The all situations expected goal totals came out at 3.89 to 2.39.
Individually the Flames were led by Noah Hanifin, with his second straight elite game, posting a xGF% of 91% five on five. Chris Tanev, Andrew Mangiapane and Mikael Backlund were all in the 80s. Blake Coleman just back at 79%. The Kadri line (Kadri, Pospisil and Zary) all finished under 20%.
