The Flames last two games at the Saddledome have had a very similar feel, with remarkably different finishes.
On December 27th they take a 1-1 tie to the third period against the Seattle Kraken and lose the game despite out playing their visitors.
Tonight the same score, but the teams score five third period goals with the Flames outlasting the Flyers 4-3 on New Year’s Eve.
The Flames head out on the road for a four game slog starting Tuesday night in Minnesota.
The time is now for a streak if they want to get back into the playoff mix.
The Lineup
Change, change and lots of change.
Well change to two lines and two defense pairings anyway, which seems like a fair bit.
Up front Jonathan Huberdeau bounces up to play with Elias Lindholm and Yegor Sharangovich, Andrew Mangiapane returns to his “normal” line with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. The other two lines stay in tact (fourth line had a brief reprieve) with Nazem Kadri between Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil, and Adam Ruzicka between AJ Greer and Dillon Dube.
Huska is trying that blueline balance thing again, breaking up what has admittedly been a pretty meh pairing five on five in Mackenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson. The Noah Hanifin with Chris Tanev pairing remains, but look for Dennis Gilbert with Rasmus Andersson and Jordan Oesterle with Mackenzie Weegar.
It’s expected we see Jacob Markstrom again on goal.
Line Metrics Coming In
xGF%
Huberdeau – Lindholm – Sharangovich 45.5%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Coleman 61.4%
Zary – Kadri – Pospisil 59.6%
Greer – Ruzicka – Dube 43.7%
Hanifin – Tanev 54.7%
Gilbert – Andersson 50.0%
Oesterle – Weegar 44.4%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +6.1
Vladar -4.6
Wolf -5.2
Trend Tracker
Early in the season (quarter pole mark) there was a thought that the hurdle point for a playoff birth this season was much lower than usual, meaning .500 (ish) hockey teams remained in the battle for play past mid April.
That’s crumbling.
The mushy middle in the West has started to win hockey games. Look at the last ten games played for that wildcard group …
Nashville 6-3-1
Arizona 6-4-0
Seattle 6-1-3
Minnesota 7-3-0
Edmonton 7-3-0
The Blues at 5-5-0 and Calgary at 4-4-2 have lost ground.
The 8th playoff team, the Coyotes are now on a more reasonable 94 point pace, meaning 95 points are needed to secure a spot.
To get to 95 points the Flames would need to go 29-14-4 for a 108 point pace and a .660 win percentage.
That’s all folks!
Markstrom Start
Really good early as he gave the Flames every chance to stay in the game and mount the comeback from a 1-0 deficit.
He gives up two late ones with the Philly goalie pulled to ruin his stat night but was still solid in the win.
Expected goals against at 2.96 and he gave up three.
Good enough.
Flames in Tank Mode?
A flurry of giveaways in the first two minutes of the second period had the Flames looking like a team looking for a way to lose a hockey game.
Owen Tippett takes a shot, Noah Hanifin gives it back to him … rebound comes out to Blake Coleman and he gives it back to Tippett. Markstrom was strong.
Then a minute later Mackenzie Weegar passes the puck straight into the crease to a Flyer.
Clearly the tank comment was in jest, but the Flames were not ready to play the second period.
Huberdeau’s Monkey is Dead
I thought Jonathan Huberdeau was great against the Kraken, setting up teammates on numerous occasions.
Tonight he was even better.
With what looked to be the same result.
He had three chances to score himself, and set up teammates on about four other occasions and somehow found himself pointless again tonight through two periods.
In the third he corrals a loose puck after Blake Coleman is taken down and makes a perfect pass to Dennis Gilbert who buries his first of the season to give the Flames the lead and get a sizeable monkey off of Huberdeau’s back.
Mangiapane’s Night
Early on it looked like this one could have gone the other way.
Midway through the first period he takes a tripping penalty; the kind of needless infraction that has had him benched or demoted twice in the least dozen games.
But not tonight.
He staying with his regular linemates (reunited with Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman) and has two key primary assists in helping his team come back from a 1-0 deficit and win the hockey game, and another assist on the empty netter.
Blake Coleman Game 500
Game number 500 for Blake Coleman, Calgary’s most consistent player this season.
He scores the empty net goal and adds an assist to make the night memorable.
Quite the free agent signing as year three is winding it’s way to the halfway point.
Solid hockey player.
Game Flow
The Flames got off to a rough start with some leaky early defense, and an Andrew Mangiapane penalty. That had the Flyers in the driver seat for the first half of the period. They were rewarded when they took a 1-0 lead. Then Calgary bent the game the other direction and dominated the rest of the 20. Their typical lack of finish the difference in a 1-0 Philly lead that easily could have been 2-1 Calgary or better.
Pretty even up second period with both teams getting chances. The Flames tie the game up when Mikael Backlund keeps the puck in winning a scrum up the boards before returning the puck to Andrew Mangiapane who sets him up for a one timer. Backlund’s 8th of the season. Calgary the better team through two periods, but we’re all tied up just like the Seattle game.
Wild and crazy third period with five goals scored between the two teams; three of them from the Flames for the win. Calgary gets goals from Dennis Gilbert, Nazem Kadri and Blake Stone into the empty net. The Flames score twice with the goalie pulled to make it interesting. Wild ride!
Odds and Sods
With the change to the forward lines I was hoping to see Jonathan Huberdeau on his off wing (that will trigger some for Sutter memories) with Nazem Kadri and Connor Zary. They had a post powerplay shift against Seattle and just dominated. … At least having Huberdeau with Sharangovich makes some sense from a pass first / shoot first combination; if they don’t get buried in their own zone. … Glad to see Mackenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson broken up, but I would have likely just done the top four swap and not created two third pairing duos. … The new Lindholm line was the team’s best early on, creating numerous chances with Jonathan Huberdeau featured in all of them. But no points. … Jacob Markstrom is such a calm presence in the Flames crease. Since he returned from his broken finger injury he’s been so calm in his movements, and so consistent in his goaltending. Another great night for the Flames starter. …
Special Teams
Calgary wins the special teams battle tonight in the win without scoring a powerplay goal.
The Flames kill all four chances from the Flyers, and come up empty on their own two chances.
Standings and Record
The win moves the Flames one point closer to a playoff spot as they now sit six points back in a battle for the final wild card spot in the West.
They still sit 13th in the West with their win percentage, the worst of the teams with hope and head of the three teams with none.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 33 Flyers 31
Face Offs: Flames 43% / Flyers 57%
Powerplay: Flames 0-2 / Flyers 0-4
Fancy Stats
Incredible how close this game was to the Seattle game but with a different outcome. The Flames the better team in shot volume and with it expected goals, but not the top team when it comes to high danger chances. Five on five the Flames had 56% of the shot attempts with period splits of 65%/47% and 55% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 61%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 47%, with a 8-9 split.
In all situations the Flames had 50% of the shot attempts, 57% of the expected goals, and 42% of the high danger splits. The all situations expected goal totals came out at 3.86 to 2.96.
Individually the Flames were led by Jordano Oesterle posting a xGF% of 81% on the night five on five. Mikael Backlund was next at 71%. The Flames had many players in the 60s. Only two players under water; Martin Pospisil and Connor Zary.
