Game Takes: Caps 3 Flames 2 (SO)

October 16th, 2023 | Posted in Game Takes | By: D'Arcy McGrath

If there is any memory the Flames would like to erase from last season it was their record in overtime and one goal games.

Not so fast I guess.

The Flames added a negative tally to both statistics to start the season losing their first one goal game and first extra time game to the Washington Capitals on Monday night after completely dominating the first 30 or so minutes and taking a two goal lead.

A goal and an assist from Calgary native and ex-Flame Matthew Phillips pulled the Caps even in the second, and then Washington won it when the Flames hit a cross bar and a goal post but failed to score.

The road trip stands at 0-1-1 and the season 1-1-1.

Next up Buffalo on Thursday night.

The Lineup

Not expecting any change for the Flame’s lineup tonight.

Look to see Elias Lindholm between Jonathan Huberdeau and Andrew Mangiapane, Nazem Kadri with Adam Ruzicka and Dillon Dube, Mikael Backlund with Blake Coleman and Matthew Coronato, and Yegor Sharangovich with AJ Greer and Walker Duehr.

On the blueline Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson, Nikita Zadorov with Mackenzie Weegar, and Dennis Gilbert with Chris Tanev.

It’s expected that the Flames go with Jacob Markstrom for the third straight game to start the season.

Line Metrics Coming In

xGF%
Huberdeau – Lindholm – Mangiapane 66.7%
Coleman – Backlund – Coronato 41.7%
Ruzicka – Kadri – Dube 50%
Greer – Sharangovich – Duehr 71.4%

Hanifin – Andersson 42.9%
Zadorov – Weegar 30.0%
Gilbert – Tanev 26.4%

Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom -0.7
Vladar NA

Trend Tracker:

Nothing but sketchy Flames stats through two games as the team was completely outplayed by the Jets and won, and then for the most part outplayed the Penguins and lost.

Through two games only two players with positive expected goals splits; a fourth liner (Walker Duehr) and a 6/7 defenseman (Dennis Gilbert). That’s it folks. Blake Coleman is a shade under 50%.

At the other end there are six players under 30% (I know, I know, it’s early) …

  1. Jordan Oesterle 21.2%
  2. Nazem Kadri 24.6%
  3. Matt Coronato 24.9%
  4. Jonathan Huberdeau 27.9%
  5. Nikita Zadorov 29.4%
  6. Mackenzie Weegar 29.8%

Of biggest concern to me is the Zadorov / Weegar pairing.

Markstrom’s Start

Nothing to do at all to start.

Gives up a second period goal that he’d like to have back, but then probably secures his team a point when he stones TJ Oshie on a breakaway late in the third. Didn’t really have a chance on Matthew Phillips goal.

His expected goals against was 3.09, so with two through 65 he gets it done.

All in all neither a check mark nor an “X” as far as I’m concerned.

How About That 4th Line?

Just can’t say enough about the new look fourth line that we’ve now seen for two games on this trip.

It’s the best Yegor Sharangovich has looked in Calgary colours, fourth line or not … so there’s that.

But they have size.

They have wheels.

And they’re far from a line that you need to hide in a game, as they take the play to the opposition and generate scoring chances.

The momentum you can create when your fourth line passes the baton to the next line instead of getting hemmed in their own zone or drawing penalties ….

Game Flow

About as well as you can start a road game … I’m sure Ryan Huska was thrilled. The Flames spent the game’s first ten minutes largely in the Washington zone and ran up a 13-0 shot advantage and a first period goal for Adam Ruzicka. Calgary adds to their lead on their second powerplay when Dillon Dube tips in a point shot from Noah Hanifin. Things get more scrambly late in the period when Calgary is down a man on a fluke tripping penalty to Nikita Zadorov.

The second period honestly wasn’t much better for the Capitals, but they scored two goals on broken plays with tired players after being dominated for a full shift and pulled the game even. Has to be frustrating from the Calgary side.

A much more hotly contested third period with the Capitals and Flames trading chances, but neither team find the net. Calgary gets a late powerplay that could have been the difference but just couldn’t get set up.

Not a lot in overtime, as both teams play it pretty close to the vest and do a lot of taking the puck back to the neutral zone. Flames avoid disaster when Nazem Kadri jumps on without anyone coming off and giving the Capitals a powerplay with a two many men on the ice penalty.

Matthew Phillips Gets it Done

You just knew it was coming, right?

Ex Flame, looking for his first NHL goal. And yes there it is … second period on a rush after getting hemmed in for almost two minutes and Sonny Milano throws it across to Matthew Phillips for his first NHL goal.

We all should have taken that bet.

The diminutive winger added an assist later in the period for his first two NHL points.

Odds and Sods

Had the chuckle in the first period when the Flames had 25 seconds left on their first powerplay of the game and Ryan Huska, after each unit coming up empty, sent out his fourth line to finish the man advantage. Sutter did that often last year, often because the fourth line guys were the only intact line available after two minutes of special teams, but fans weren’t impressed. Assuming Huska was thinking the same way though. … Thought that Jonathan Huberdeau hit on Kuznetzov in the first period was likely a penalty. Sure the Cap turned his back but you can’t finish him regardless. … Love me some Chris Tanev, but I don’t know many top four defensemen in Flames history that could do less with an offensive opportunity than number eight. A won face off or a pass to the point generally goes nowhere if Tanev is the recipient (clearly not his game). … Loving a lot of Adam Ruzicka’s game right now, even mentioned him in the last game story with his own section. But he’ll get some time in the video room after tonight’s game with his tracking on the Phillips goal. Phillips to Milano and instead of following Phillips he covered Mackenzie Weegar covering Milano. Bad read. … Not a great game for either of the hopeful comeback forwards in Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau. Kadri takes a too many men penalty in overtime and goes off side twice. Huberdeau takes a third period penalty and coughs the puck up a few times. Oh boy.

Special Teams

Flames still haven’t given up a powerplay goal against this season, killing now 10 straight to start the season including a heart stopping session in overtime.

The Flames powerplay scores once despite being largely ineffective all night.

But that’s a win on the special teams for the third straight game.

Standings and Record

Too early to honestly bother, but for those dying to know … the Flames sit third in the Pacific Division and in a playoff spot with a 1-1-1 record to start the season.

Lots of teams off to middling starts with only Vegas, Vancouver and Colorado unblemished (Stars as well but they’ve only played one game).

Counting Stats

Shots: Flames 40 Capitals 23
Face Offs: Flames 61% / Capitals 39%
Powerplay: Flames 1-5 / Capitals 0-3

Fancy Stats

The Flames had a dominant start, but outplayed the Capitals in all three periods with an edge in key stats in all three stanzas. Five on five the Flames had 57% of the shot attempts with period splits of 63%/54% and 55% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 65%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 71%, with a 10-4 split. Not sure the best team won in this encounter.

In all situations the Flames had 57% of the shot attempts, 55% of the expected goals, and 61% of the high danger splits. The all situations expected goal totals came out at 3.70 to 3.09.

Individually the Flames were led by AJ Greer and Walker Duehr (his second straight game at the top), posting identical xGF% of 82% on the night five on five. Mikael Backlund, Nikita Zadorov, Blake Coleman, Mackenzie Weegar, Matt Coronato and Elias Lindholm were all in the 70s. Only four players were under water on the night; Adam Ruzicka, Nazem Kadri, Dillon Dube and Rasmus Andersson.



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