Not easy to remember … but the Flames actually scored first in this one, and then killed off a Buffalo penalty. Five minutes into the game and it looked like the Flames were going to roll out a workmanlike effort and do their thing.
That was it for comfort level on the night, however.
The Sabres scored four straight goals, three in the first period, sending the Flames into chase mode for the rest of the night as the Sabres cruised to a convincing 6-3 victory.
We’d all be happy with a 3-1-0 record through four games to start the season, and this certainly gives Darryl Sutter a coaching and focus moment to keep his team on point, but this one lets a little air out of the tires of a city enjoying a solid start to the season.
Back at it on Saturday night when the Hurricanes come to town.
The Lineup
The jump ball tonight is on the blueline with Noah Hanifin missing practices twice this week, but playing the game against Vegas between both absences. Darryl Sutter indicated he could play, but it wasn’t a certainty. In the end he didn’t.
So up front it’s Elias Lindholm with Johnathan Huberdeau and Tyler Toffoli, Nazem Kadri with Dillon Dube and Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund with Blake Coleman and Trevor Lewis, and finally Kevin Rooney with Milan Lucic and Brett Ritchie.
On the blueline Connor Mackey is inserted and lines up with Michael Stone, Mackenzie Weegar with Chris Tanev, and Nikita Zadorov steps up to play with Rasmus Andersson.
In goal the Flames plan to play Jacob Markstrom for his second straight start.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Huberdeau – Lindholm – Toffoli 56.3%
Mangiapane – Kadri – Dube 66.7%
Coleman – Backlund – Lewis 53.6%
Lucic – Rooney – Ritchie 70.0%
Hanifin – Andersson 57.6%
Weegar – Tanev 63.4%
Zadorov – Stone 70.6%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +0.6
Vladar -0.3
1100 for Lucic
When Bill Peters was coach of the Calgary Flames, Milan Lucic was a miserable hockey player. He thought about hanging them up roughly 23 months ago when the season wasn’t off to the best of starts and hockey was becoming anything but fun.
As hockey fans the Flames were happy to get out from under the James Neal contract, but had some pretty big concerns about taking on the contract of Milan Lucic.
That feeling didn’t take long.
Instead of loathing a contract, the city embraced the guy as an over paid but important bottom six forward. He soon developed an almost cult status with the fan base, to the point where you can hear “looooooch” chants in enemy barns.
Tonight Milan Lucic plays game 1100 in his NHL career, not an easy task for any player, but additionally hard given the way he plies his trade, and his back condition which I would have to assume is somewhat debilitating (not a doctor).
Amazing as it sounds, you’d have to think the Flames will be entertaining the notion of bringing the player back on a much reduced short term contract for next season.
Quite the story.
Details
Darryl Sutter wouldn’t have been happy with the first period at all.
The Flames were cheating offensively and completely abandoning their structure in trying to run and gun with the young Sabres. Part of it playing against a team that you think you should beat, and part of it trailing in the game and trying to do too much to get caught up.
But you can’t cheat to the point where you trade an average chance for a better chance against a team with young skill and a lead.
Not sure a garbage can would have been tossed, but guessing the reminder after the first period wasn’t subtle.
Didn’t Work!
The second period was arguably even worse than the first as the Flames were completely outplayed for most of the 20 minutes.
The Sabres go ahead 4-1 when Alex Tuch scores less than a minute in the stanza, things clearly not looking good.
It looked like a 5-1 game on a Buffalo powerplay but replays showed the puck hit the cross bar and the puck never crossed the line.
Would that give the Flames a lift? Not exactly as they sleep through another ten or so minutes and look to be going quietly into the night.
The teams gets an absolute gift in the last ten seconds of the second when a puck hits the refs skate creating a turnover to Johnathan Huberdeau who slips it to Trevor Lewis for a buzz beater.
Rough Night for Andersson
Other players had worst box scores, but I thought in terms of reads Rasmus Andersson had a really tough nights.
Got caught up the ice twice leading to odd man chances, as he was sort of my poster boy for cheating offensively and creating more chances against creating a loss.
Darryl Sutter has a bunch of video (can you still say video?) to go over between tonight and the Flames next game on Saturday against the Hurricanes.
When I coached kids and we got down I always picked the number one greater than the opposition’s current total and asked “can we score 4 goals?” and they’d always yell “yes coach!” to which I’d say “then who cares who scores the first one”.
You have to stay in your system up or down.
Goalie Swap
Sutter pulls Markstrom after the first period, putting the newly minted Dan Vladar in the nets for the rest of the game.
As it would turn out Vladar gets beat on his first shot, not his fault at all … completely screened.
The goalie change appeared to be more about a wake up call then a shaky starter as it would be hard to fault Markstrom on any of the first period goals.
Just an off night for a pretty consistent team I suppose.
Fourth Line Troubles
The Flames fourth line has been instrumental in getting off to a 3-0-0 start, especially noticeable in the back to back victories over Edmonton and Vegas.
Tonight, however, was not their night.
The fourth line just got filled in regularly in this one, including a 90 second shift in the second period where they were stranded on the ice and sucking air. Turnovers, icing calls, a failure to get pucks deep, and then not getting in effectively on the forecheck spelled doom.
It was a brutal night for all but the Backlund line, but the fourth line stood out as having a worse night than most.
Metrics Confusion
I’ve come a long way when it comes to underlying numbers.
I’ve read a lot. Researched a lot, and played with numbers, I get them for the most part.
But what really bugs me is what’s missing.
Take the first period. Flames five on five out shoot the Sabres 16-12, have more shot attempts 23-21, are even in high danger chances 4-4, and have the edge in scoring chances 14-12 (home plate shots). The expected goal split for the period? 39.83% for Calgary.
So what number is missing that we can’t see that drives that number towards Buffalo despite the Sabres not leading a single category that we can see?
I’m sure there’s a formula, but it’s a head scratcher for me.
Special Teams
All Buffalo.
The Sabres got five of the six powerplays and scored the only powerplay goal going 1/5.
Truthfully the Flames penalty kill may have been the only silver lining in an otherwise pretty putrid night but they did give up the only special teams goal.
Edge goes to Buffalo.
Standings and Record
The loss moves the Flames to 3-1-0 on the season, a record that still represents a great start to the season despite how the city is likely feeling tonight.
Too early to worry about the standings … they look good.
The Blues are now the league’s only immaculate team left on the books.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 43 Sabres 32
Face Offs: Flames 44% / Sabres 56%
Powerplay: Flames 0-1 / Sabres 1-5
Fancy Stats
The Flames had a really rough night, they fought the puck, cheated offensively, and with that got themselves stuck in their own zone, or the victim of odd man rushes far too often. Five on five the Flames had 51% of the shot attempts with period splits of 51%/31% and 74% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 49%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 47%, with a 8-9 split.
In all situations the Flames had 50% of the shot attempts, 43% of the expected goals, and 50% of the high danger splits.
Individually the Flames were led by Trevor Lewis, with an xGF% of 92% five on five on the night. His linemates Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman also had great nights with Backlund at 91% and Coleman at 82%. Michael Stone was the only player in the 70s. The fourth line was at the bottom of the pile with unbelievably brutal numbers … all under 10%
