There it is!
The Flames can now officially start preparing for their first round playoff matchup as they clinched their second Pacific crown in four years with a 4-2 victory over the Dallas Stars on Thursday night.
The game, which featured a mile stone 40th goal / 100th point strike from Matthew Tkachuk was another example of the Flames not firing on all offensive cylinders, but still playing the type of team defense that wins a lot of hockey games.
With four games to go on the schedule Sutter can now focus on systems and getting his club ready for what the city hopes is a bit of a run this Spring.
Home ice for the first two rounds are secure.
The Lineup
Not a single change from the team’s shoot out loss in Nashville on Tuesday night.
Jacob Markstrom in goal, which is a bit of a surprise with the talk about the five days off before the Vancouver game. Guessing Sutter wants the division clinched as soon as he can before he starts managing his tenders.
On the blueline Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson, Oliver Kylington with Chris Tanev and Nikita Zadorov with Erik Gudbranson.
Up front it’s Elias Lindholm with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, Mikael Backlund with Andrew Mangiapane and Tyler Toffoli, Calle Jarnkrok with Dillon Dube and Blake Coleman, and finally Trevor Lewis at center with Milan Lucic and Brett Ritchie.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk 62.87%
Mangiapane – Backlund – Tofoli 44.7%
Dube – Jarnkrok – Coleman 44.8%
Lucic – Lewis – Ritchie 50.0%
Hanifin – Andersson 57.5%
Kylington – Tanev 58.3%
Zadorov – Gudbranson 57.1%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom +11.6
Stars & Flames: Last 10 games
With their playoff lives at stake the Stars have sputtered somewhat going 4-4-2 in their last 10, good for 19th in the league in win percentage. Their possession stats are under water with the 17th best CF% in that time period, and the 13th best xGF%. Team shooting percentage five on five is way down at 31st overall, and their goaltending sits 16th.
The Flames are 8th in points percentage with a 7-2-1 record. Their CF% is ranked 4th, while their xGF% is 7th. They have the 8th best shooting percentage and the 19th best team save percentage. If you’re a Flames fan you have to be happy with a 7-2-1 record with middle of the pack underlying PDO.
Clinch!
There was never really much doubt in the last 30 games or so that the Flames looked to be heading to a division crown, but it’s a relief to get it done.
I don’t expect we’ll see a lot of healthy scratches over the final few games, but it does give Sutter the option of giving Markstrom some time off; if they deem that to be the best strategy.
With the Oilers down eight points coming into the night and only five games to play the writing was clearly on the wall.
That’s a banner! No matter what happens from here something’s going up in the rafters and it won’t be about Garth Brooks concert dates.
Tighten Up Those Changes
That’s three too many men on the night penalties in the last four hockey periods, and all caused by defensemen; something that had Darryl Sutter pretty flummoxed after the game in his comments.
He mentioned he had never seen that.
Has to be someone leaving to soon … he referenced the right side, and he had Rasmus Andersson serve the first of the two tonight, a spot usually reserved for Matthew Tkachuk. Have to think that might have been a message.
40 & 100
Mere personal accolades on the night as the Flames first goal by Matthew Tkachuk moved him simultaneously into the 40 goal and 100 point club … that’s quite a market.
It’s the first time the Flames have had a 40 goal scorer since the 2010-11 season, and the first time they’ve had two 100 point players since 1990-91.
Man that’s a long time ago.
With the Flames clinch more than likely there really wasn’t much danger in the personal stuff becoming a distraction, but with that done the team should hopefully be able to get focused on the system and getting things tight for round one.
Lindholm Snake Bit
How many chances did the guy get to score his 40th?
I counted three blue chippers including one in front of the net on a classic Johnny Gaudreau set up in the second period that had Oettinger making a great save.
In the third he was sprung by Gaudreau on a powerplay breakaway and lost the handle.
He still has four games, so I think he’ll get there, but tonight could have had two of them pass the mark.
Backlund’s Line
Good to see Mikael Backlund’s line get in on the scoring, as they’ve been pretty quiet of late.
The two goals with them present came from blueliners, but I thought all three players handled the puck better, and showed more chemistry.
Lately I’ve felt that Tyler Toffoli has been brutal handling the puck, whiffing on chances to cycle, not making solid passes, and turning pucks over. Tonight he seemed much more comfortable, and the line as a whole was solid.
They gave up the game tying goal in the third but that was more of a fluke than anything.
Special Teams
Both teams score a goal wit the man advantage, but the Flames do it with one less opportunity to steal the crown of best special teams on the night.
If you want to dig deeper though it really comes down to Oettinger having a great night as the Flames had five high danger chances in their up a man minutes, while the Stars had zero … the Flames penalty kill owned them pretty much all night.
Good to see that PK back in the zone as it slipped a few weeks ago.
Standings and Record
Here’s a section that will no longer matter when it comes to the Flames! Their spot is now determined.
Around the league though some intrigue as the days wind down.
The Flames keep the Stars from getting any points, which could effect who the Flames play in the first round. The Canucks lost in St. Louis which is a dagger, but maybe Vegas has a chance to reel a wild card team in.
Most predictions have 96 points to get it done. So that means the following;
The Predators need three points in five games.
The Stars need five points in four games.
Both of those seem likely.
The Kings need four points in six games. Should happen.
Vegas needs seven points in five games.
Vancouver needs nine points in four games … yeah trouble.
Looking like Calgary Nashville to me.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 37 Stars 23
Face Offs: Flames 50% / Stars 50%
Powerplay: Flames 1-5 / Stars 1-4
Fancy Stats
Dallas was the desperate team again tonight, and they carried the play five on five, though the game itself was a pretty low event encounter. Five on five the Flames had 50% of the shot attempts with period splits of 39%/66% and 41% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 43%, and for high danger scoring chances the Flames had 38%, with a 5-8 split.
In all situations the Flames had 60% of the shot attempts, 65% of the expected goals, and 60% of the high danger splits. As I said above, the Flames special teams carried the day.
Individually the Flames were led by Chris Tanev and Oliver Kylington, who were great with an xGF% of 75% five on five on the night. Matthew Tkachuk and Calle Jarnkrok also had good nights for the Flames. Two thirds of the fourth line were at the bottom with Trevor Lewis and Milan Lucic posting xGF% of 23%. Ouch.
