When the roster construction was finished, or at least when it appeared to be finished, many thought the Flames would be in every hockey game, potentially out play the opposition, but have trouble finishing making them a bubble team.
To start the season it hasn’t been an issue.
The club jumps on the opposition in the first period, builds a lead, and then relies on a structured system to defend well and take wins home. It’s worked for six straight victories.
Tonight though we saw the original issue; that is out playing the opposition significantly but not getting the returns deserved in dropping a 3-2 overtime game to the Nashville Predators.
The Flames had 20 shots, 17 scoring chances (nine deemed high danger) in the first period but came away down a goal. A third period tying goal by Oliver Kylington got them to overtime so at least they secured a point
That’s points in eight straight games if you’re looking for a silver lining!
The Flames host the Dallas Stars on Thursday night looking to get back on another streak.
The Lineup
Getting to be a broken record when it comes to lineups.
The team keeps winning, and with that the lineup isn’t changing a whole lot. In the six game win streak we’ve seen one switch on the blueline, and two starts from a backup goaltender, but the same 12 forwards rolled out each night, and on the same lines. Not used to this level of stability!
So Jacob Markstrom goes in goal with the two days off from Saturday’s shut out. Pretty much have to I would say. The guy is so hot you won’t want to risk him losing that edge, and the team got two starts (and wins!) from their backup on the road trip, one in a game that wasn’t even a back to back. With seven starts in nine games Markstrom is on pace for 64 starts which is pretty close to what I would have predicted. And the team has many a back to back to come.
On the blueline no change from last game, which means Juuso Valimaki sits for his second straight game in favour of Nikita Zadorov. I don’t want Valimaki sitting for long stretches but I do see value in getting Zadorov playing Sutter’s way and having the physical option. For tonight it’s Zadorov with Erik Gudbranson, Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson and Oliver Kylington with Chris Tanev.
Up front, as I said … no change at all. Elias Lindholm between Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, Mikael Backlund between Blake Coleman and Tyler Pitlick, Dillon Dube between Andrew Mangiapane and Brett Ritchie, and finally Sean Monahan between Milan Lucic and Trevor Lewis.
Line Metrics
xGF%
Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk 57.4%
Coleman – Backlund – Pitlick 45.5%
Mangiapane – Dube – Ritchie 48.8%
Lucic – Monahan – Lewis 44.4%
Hanifin – Andersson 48.8%
Kylington – Tanev 63%
Zadorov – Gudbranson 42.9%
Goals Saved + Avg
Markstrom 8.0
Special Teams
Through the early season the Flames have made great hay on special teams, part of the reason they were able to win six in a row and get off to their best start in 20 years.
Tonight though that engine sputtered.
The powerplay did score a goal, and they were perfect on two kill chances; so the special teams battle was won. But the group had six powerplay opportunities to the opposition’s two and only scored the one goal, which was poison to the final score in a close low scoring game.
Not that they didn’t have their chances, but as pointed out by Bourne in both intermissions the Flames seemed to be over thinking the grade A chances turning them into nothing.
Overtime Drama
Not sure I’d call the Ekholm pick on Tkachuk penalty worthy, and with the near boards obstructing the clash between Mikael Backlund and Josi I cant honestly say I saw 100% proof of a penalty myself.
But goaltender Jacob Markstrom sure seemed convinced as he came out of his crease at the referee hot and bothered after the Predators won in extra time.
If the latter was a call it’s a shame as Backlund had or was near the puck, so not seeing it wouldn’t be a valid excuse.
The way the puck bounces I suppose.
Bottom Pairing
Still can’t get over how solid Erik Gudbranson is compared to the preseason expectations. He generally makes the smart, simple play pretty much every time.
Last night he wasn’t the best player on the ice, he wasn’t the best defenseman on his team, but he wasn’t a liability. Keep expecting that bubble to pop, but it’s nine games in and it looks like he’s found a sheltered home.
His partner was pretty much the same as he has been. Nikita Zadorov had one terrible giveaway that they got away with, and some moments that had you gripping your chair. Overall he’s probably in less trouble than we saw to start the season, but you’d have to think with the loss it might be time to bring Juuso Valimaki back for Thursday’s contest.
Sutter calls it a competition, but Zadorov isn’t winning.
Gaudreau Humming
Johnny Gaudreau has had some amazing moments, heck amazing seasons in Calgary, but I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen him better in terms of his overall play.
He looks faster. His hands are back (likely due to playing with speed). He’s seeing the ice well.
But on top of the usual Johnny Gaudreau tool kit we’re seeing more strength (holding off opponents) and determination in being better at both ends of the ice.
With that they’re spending more time in the opposition zone and less time getting hemmed in their own zone; something that’s been an issue for every incantation of the top line in recent seasons.
Earning himself a nice pay day to start the season.
Counting Stats
Shots: Flames 40 / Predators 22
Face Offs: Flames 52% / Predators 48%
Powerplay: Flames 1-6 / Predators 0-2
Fancy Stats
As I said in the opening, the Flames badly out played the Predators to start the game, and overall to be honest but came up empty due to finish. Five on five they had 61% of the shot attempts with period splits of 64%/56% and 60% respectively. In terms of five on five expected goals, the Flames had 71%, and for high danger scoring chances the team had 69%, with a dominant 11-5 split.
In all situations the Flames had 66% of the shot attempts, 75% of the expected goals, and 74% of the high danger splits. Honestly if you played that exact hockey game 100 more times in terms of chance splits the Flames would win 95 of them. Just one of those nights.
Individually the Flames were led by Andrew Mangiapane who had 74% of the five on five shot attempts to pace the team. Mikael Backlund was just behind at 71%, and Matthew Tkachuk, Tyler Pitlick, Chris Tanev, Johnny Gaudreau and Dillon Dube were all at 65% or greater. Only two players finished under water, Sean Monahan and Trevor Lewis, who were both just under 50%.
