So is that the season?
I mean most of us had already pretty much written it off, but now with the Flames three games under .500 and chasing two teams that just keep on winning the task looks pretty difficult.
With 18 games to go the Flames likely can only afford a loss or two max, and that’s with some head on head success to balance the books.
Tonight was a solid game though, the Flames brought the best game we’ve seen in a few and could easily have won this one in regulation despite a bit of a shaky start.
In the end it was an Edmonton powerplay and a game winner from the generational player that sealed their fate.
The Line Up
One would have thought we’d see the same lineup that was laid out for the Vancouver game that was never played, but an injury of some sort to Mikael Backlund necessitated a change to the forward group. There was a discussion of David Rittich playing tonight given the morning skate, but it doesn’t look like that’s the case.
The Cage
In goal back to the horse, despite the veteran Jacob Markstrom still trying to find his game. Markstrom has really struggled since the injury and through the Darryl Sutter era, but all season he’s had trouble with the Oilers.
Jacob Markstrom
Goals Saved above average -0.29
David Rittich
Goals Saved above average -0.05
The Blueline
A slight change to the blueline as Juuso Valimaki returns to action after sitting out two contests, taking Nikita Nesterov’s place on a third pairing with Michael Stone. Stone had a great first game, back but struggled a touch against Winnipeg in the 5-1 loss. The other pairings stay the same which is; Noah Hanifin with Chris Tanev, and Mark Giordano with Rasmus Andersson. I still say they should try Valimaki with Giordano and get away from the flawed second pairing.
Hanifin – Tanev
59% xGF in 569 minutes
Giordano – Andersson
42% xGF in 477 minutes
Valimaki – Stone
New Combination.
Up Front
Not having Mikael Backlund is not the way you want to play the Oilers, as he’s key in trying to track down Connor McDavid; clearly having more luck with the last change at the Saddledome than when they play in Edmonton. Look for Sam Bennett to try and fill those boots as he centers Milan Lucic and Andrew Mangiapane. The top line is Elias Lindholm between Matthew Tkachuk and Dillon Dube, Sean Monahan between Johnny Gaudreau and Brett Ritchie, and finally a fourth line with Derek Ryan between Joakim Nordstrom and Josh Leivo.
Tkachuk – Lindholm – Dube
46% xGF in 203 minutes
Gaudreau – Monahan – Ritchie
43% xGF in 95 minutes
Lucic – Bennett – Mangiapane
29% xGF in 5 minutes
Nordstrom – Ryan – Leivo
70% xGF in 17 minutes
~ Data from NaturalStatTrick, and Moneypuck
The Start
A little dicey!
The Flames spent way too much of the game’s first ten minutes firmly in their own zone, with the Oilers buzzing and creating chances.
Their best chance of the period came off the stick of Leon Draisaitl who took an errant pass from Dillon Dube and walked in but shot it wide.
The Flames didn’t settle down though and actually pushed the play from the ten minute to fifteen mark before Edmonton righted the ship again.
The period’s only goal from Michael Stone, who used his really effective slapper to beat Mike Smith through a crowd.
Good result, but not the best of structure against a dynamic team.
Gaudreau Intensity
A player that came to play was Johnny Gaudreau who was noticeable on almost every shift.
Moving his feet (looked quite a bit faster), and darting in and out of lanes he created a few chances and even had a little snarl to his game as seen by a cross check tit for tat with former Flames Kris Russell.
Was good to see Sean Monahan finish a check hard on Russell as well, he certainly has the size to be a presence in defense of a linemate.
Flames Come to Play in the 2nd
Have to wonder where that brand of hockey has been?
The Flames have had a territorial edge in many a period, and even in some complete games, but they don’t generate enough fire in the tough areas of the ice.
Tonight in the second period the Flames put on a clinic. Both in how they managed the Edmonton offence in their own zone, and also how they transitioned to offence and got in on the forecheck.
The Oilers may have scored two of the three goals in the period, but the Flames, unlike the first period, were the better team.
The result was a very even hockey game through 40 minutes.
The Michael Stone Story
Honestly love the guy, he’s a great teammate and a solid depth piece to have around.
His goal tonight was a clear display of his key strength, which is his shot.
But like his second game against Winnipeg, Stone struggled mightily tonight almost every time he was on the ice. Pinned in his own zone for countless shifts he was lucky to be even on the strength of his own goal.
When the dust settled he was at the very bottom of the pile when it came to expected goal splits.
I like the option with injury, but the team has better options.
Solid Markstrom Start
Thought Jacob Markstrom played really well in tonight’s game.
If he wasn’t on his toes in the first period it could have easily been a 2-0 Edmonton lead, but instead he posted a first period goose egg on 14 Edmonton shots.
Two goals against in the second, but I wouldn’t fault him for either strike. Nugent Hopkins goal came across the crease off of two skates leaving both Markstrom and the PK unit having to react. The second Edmonton goal was more of a break down by Elias Lindholm, leaving Juuso Valimaki to cover two Edmonton forwards and they put it past Markstrom using the extra man.
In the third McDavid squeaks one by him that he’d like to have back, but it was through two sets of skates so even that one is hard to lean too hard on him.
Overall a much better start from the befuddled stopper.
Dube and Valimaki
Pretty solid re-entry games for both Dillon Dube and Juuso Valimaki.
Neither player had a huge amount of ice time, but they took care of things when they were on the ice.
Dube had 11+ minutes with 57% CF, and though his expected goal split was only 16%.
Valimaki also with 11+ minutes had 63% CF and a 5o% expected goal split.
Thought they were both noticeable for the most part.
Special Teams
As you’d expect these days when Calgary plays Edmonton, the special teams played a pretty important role.
Darryl Sutter has said that he wants a powerplay goal a night from his two units combined, and tonight they didn’t get it.
The Oilers score two goals on five chances and the Flames come up empty on two opportunities, and with that you have a big shiv into a tight game.
Up 2-0 in special teams you’re going to win a lot games that end with a one goal margin.
Where the Hell Was the Calgary Telecast?
The oddest thing on the night was the lack of a Calgary telecast.
I get the cost savings, but we’ve never seen that before, even this season in Calgary / Edmonton games both clubs have always had their own broadcast crew.
Some cringeworthy moments from Jack Michaels overall, but honestly by the end of the game I gave him more credit than I expected to. He was pretty quick to point out how Calgary had the better of Edmonton over the final 50 minutes and held their own.
Still wonder about the change.
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 26 Oilers 25
Face Offs – Flames 57%
Powerplay – Flames 0/2 Oilers 2/5
Player Stats:
Points – Seven Flames had a point in the game including the goal scorers; Matthew Tkachuk and Michael Stone, and assist getters Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett, Andrew Mangiapane, and Milan Lucic.
Plus/Minus – Sam Bennett led all skaters with a +2 night.
Shots – Noah Hanifin had five shots on goal, two ahead of Sam Bennett as the next closest Flame.
Fancy Stats
The Flames carried the play for the most part after about the ten minute mark of the first period. All in all they ended up with 54% of the five on five shot attempts with period splits of 41%/64% and 69%. Once again though the high danger split goes against them as the team continues to push the puck into the danger areas for chances. The high danger chances fell 6-5 for the Oilers. The expected goal splits was 53% to Edmonton due to the danger element.
In all situations the Flames had 52% of the shot attempts, 57% of the high danger chances and an expected goal split of 50%. Interesting that Calgary had a 3-0 edge in high danger chances with the man advantage despite having only three minutes of time vs the Oilers seven and a half.
Individually, the Flames were led by Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk who both had games in the 70% range. Juuso Valimaki was next up at 63% on the night. Chris Tanev, Josh Leivo, Noah Hanifin and Dillon Dube also had noticeable nights. At the other end, Mark Giordano, Milan Lucic, Sam Bennett and Joakim Nordstrom all under 40%.
