Well that’s probably it.
We’ve lived and died by so many ifs over the past three to four weeks, but after winning two straight against Montreal, tonight’s 2-1 loss in regulation may just be the final nail in the coffin.
The Flames played a solid defensive game, they only gave up three high danger chances all night after surrendering only five and then six in the first two games of the series, but a Keystone Cop second period turnover resulted in the go ahead goal for the Canadiens and the Flames couldn’t muster the scoring chances needed to tie it up the rest of the way.
The loss puts the Habs up six points with a game in hand and only nine to play.
That’s not good.
The Line Up
Big blow for the Flames to learn today that Noah Hanifin is gone for the season with surgery to correct an upper body injury (shoulder); he was one of the few clear bright spots on the season. Where the team goes from here with their six man rotation will be interesting, and it’s not ideal to start experimenting with a game like tonight’s that simply has to be won.
The Cage
Jacob Markstrom gets the start again in yet another need to have game. Luckily it appears the big goaltender has started to find his groove again. Up to the injury against Vancouver Markstrom had a .917 save percentage, and since he’s at .897, but looking more recent he’s back to .917 in his last six starts with the Flames winning four of those games and coming very close in the two others.
Jacob Markstrom
Goals Saved above average -8.5
Louis Domingue
Yet to play
The Blueline
With Hanifin out it’s on Nikita Nesterov to step up tonight and provide some minutes. He’ll go in a revamped second pair that should turn into a third pair when the rubber hits the road. His partner will be Rasmus Andersson who has struggled all season. The first pair is unchangaed with Mark Giordano with Chris Tanev, and the third pair which will likely be the second is Juuso Valimaki with the comeback kid Michael Stone.
Giordano – Tanev
58% xGF in 167 minutes
Nesterov – Andersson
40% xGF in 26 minutes
Valimaki – Stone
54% xGF in 85 minutes
Up Front
Despite the two game win streak, Darryl Sutter switched up all his lines both in practice yesterday and the warmup tonight. Dillon Dube ascends to the first line to play with Elias Lindholm and Matthew Tkachuk. Sean Monahan is back with Johnny Gaudreau and winger Andrew Mangiapane. Mikael Backlund and Milan Lucic get a different look with Brett Ritchie, and it appears they are going with a solid top nine with Josh Leivo out, Derek Ryan with Joakim Nordstrom and Buddy Robinson.
Tkachuk – Lindholm – Dube
49% xGF in 244 minutes
Gaudreau – Monahan – Mangiapane
59% xGF in 37 minutes
Lucic – Backlund – Ritchie
25% xGF in 7 minutes
Nordstrom – Ryan – Robinson
New Combination
~ Data from NaturalStatTrick, and Moneypuck
Going Forward on the Blue
Not surprised to see Nesterov just inserted into the hole left by Hanifin’s departure for one game, but I’d be willing to bet we see a different look going forward.
Whether the Flames stay in it or not, Conner Mackey is likely a better fit to play more minutes than either of the other two alternatives in Nesterov or Oliver Kylington. Nesterov has played more than Kylington, but neither have had the minutes and role that Mackey has had with the Heat in the abbreviated AHL season.
The reports on Mackey’s season have been glowing, and he may be more suited to handle a sheltered role.
Lucic and Ritchie
Thought it was fun to watch two of Calgary’s more physical forwards work on the same line tonight in Milan Lucic and Brett Ritchie.
Both players love to get in on the forecheck using the net to set up crushing hits on opposing blueliners, but with a right shot left shot option it was giving Montreal fits when that line had their feet moving.
Would also be interesting to see mitts dropped with the two of them on the ice as I’d guess there isn’t a team with two guys in that category ready to go on one line.
Gifting Goals
The Flames give up a lot less.
Way less than under Geoff Ward, and way less than under Darryl Sutter when he first took over. That part of their game has come a long way. The issue though is scoring goals and with that you can’t break down to the extent that they did in the second period in giving up a late goal to Montreal.
The puck was on the blueline, but not quite out, and then three players were caught flat footed and watching as Montreal used that turnover to complete unravel the Flames and score the go ahead goal.
The margin is too tight, you can’t hand away scoring opportunities and goals like that.
Rough Game for Sean Monahan
First off it wasn’t all bad.
Sean Monahan had enough going right to get himself into situations that didn’t work out, compared to games where a player is invisible or all too visible in turning pucks over and making mistakes.
But all night he was just off.
Over handling the puck when an option was present, not seeing teammates open in good scoring space, having the puck slide off his stick in inopportune times, holding on to the puck too long before shooting it allowing sticks to get into lanes.
For chances there were few that had more, but he just couldn’t reign in the opportunities and cash in on a key goal to help out his team.
Tkachuk is Just Lost
Just don’t get it.
He’s literally missing in action. He doesn’t create anything, he doesn’t get off those deadly shots we saw for three years. He isn’t winning those “butt” battles behind the net to create scoring opportunities.
He’s just gone.
Will be interesting to see if we find out any information after the season. Does he want out? Is he hurt? Is there a problem in the room? Has the league sped up again year over year making his awkward skating stride an impediment?
I’d like to know.
Ugly Goalie Pull
Man that may have been the ugliest sequence of events with a goalie pulled without resulting in an empty net goal that I’ve ever seen.
Ever.
They start out playing the go to Calgary Flames board ring move, then turnover after turnover has Montreal shooting from everywhere only to have Flames players stop shots with skates.
Then they get the puck back and stifle themselves again with passes in skates and guys in the way on shoot ins, and players off side.
Fugly!
Was the Forward Juggle A Mistake?
The Flames were rolling through the first two games of this mini series.
They put up nine goals in two games (two empty netters) and seemed to have a bit of mojo going on their three forward lines.
Tonight though Sutter blendered all the lines including putting Sean Monahan back with Johnny Gaudreau and the offence just fizzled. No five on five goals, and just the single first period broken play powerplay goal to speak of.
Over tweaking?
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 22 Habs 24
Face Offs – Flames 52%
Powerplay – Flames 1/3 Habs 1/3
Player Stats:
Points – One point apiece from Andrew Mangiapane, Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm, Lindholm with the goal.
Plus/Minus – No plus players for the Flames as their only goal was on the powerplay.
Shots – Mark Giordano led all shooters with five shots on goal to pace his club.
Fancy Stats
Five on five the Flames got the better of the Canadiens with 51% of the shot attempts with period splits of 43%/61% and 45%. High Danger chances five on five were 5-3 for Calgary with the Flames giving up next to nothing as I said above. Expected goal split was 52% for the Flames.
In all situations the Flames had 48% of the shot attempts, 63% of the high danger chances and an expected goal split of 41%.
Individually, the Flames had Chris Tanev and Mark Giordano who both posted 62% on the night five on five. Elias Lindholm, Joakim Nordstrom, Sean Monahan, Buddy Robinson and Derek Ryan all finished above 55%. At the bottom was Mikael Backlund at 39%, with the Rasmus Andersson/Nikita Nesterov pairing not far behind.
