The Flames live to fight another day; well Saturday … as they play Montreal again tomorrow night.
With a 4-2 hard fought victory the team keeps their playoff hopes at least somewhat alive, as the team endeavors to sweep the Canadiens in a three game set in regulation time and make the next two weeks interesting.
Tonight they broke a 2-2 third period tie to win the game 4-2 on the strength of a big night by Sean Monahan, Dillon Dube and Andrew Mangiapane.
In a city that has largely moved on and thinking more about the club’s draft position the single win isn’t much, but you can’t win all three without winning the first one!
At least Hockey Night in Canada is a little more interesting than it could have been.
The Line Up
Up to this point in Flames history there has only been two reasons to make a roster change. A player can’t play due to injury or illness, or a healthy scratch due to wanting to shake things up, or the poor play of said player. Tonight the world meets the market as the Flames are forced to scratch Josh Leivo due to a positive covid test result. Had to happen when you think of the numbers. Just hope the rest of the team remains negative, the Flames may not be in line for a playoff spot, but I’d prefer to watch 10 more hockey games than get into a long off season early.
The Cage
Back to Jacob Markstrom again, which of course isn’t a surprise with David Rittich in Toronto. The Flames don’t have much of a chance, but if they’re going to make it interesting they’ll need some solid goaltending from Markstrom in trying to sweep the Habs in Calgary over the next four nights.
Jacob Markstrom
Goals Saved above average -8.4
Louis Domingue
Yet to play
The Blueline
No change on the blueline as the regular six are all covid free and ready to roll. So that’s Mark Giordano with Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin with Rasmus Andersson and Juuso Valimaki with Michael Stone. They did dress Nikita Nesterov as a 7th defenseman however, with Sutter suggesting it wasn’t fair to insert Buddy Robinson given how little he’s played this year. It’s interesting to point out that all three pairings are in the +range for expected goal splits, something we didn’t see all season with the original duos. Still not a huge sample size, but at 135 minutes it’s approaching the eight to nine game range.
Giordano – Tanev
59% xGF in 135 minutes
Hanifin – Andersson
50% xGF in 136 minutes
Valimaki – Stone
50% xGF in 70 minutes
Nesterov
Up Front
Just the one change in the forward group due to the Covid test with Josh Leivo out and Buddy Robinson in. That means Elias Lindholm with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan with Dillon Dube and Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund with Milan Lucic and Joakim Nordstrom, and finally Derek Ryan with Dillon Dube. With only seven forwards dressed however, the lines were only a starting point, with Dube’s punishment at lot less impactful than you’d think.
Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk
60% xGF in 59 minutes
Mangiapane – Monahan – Ritchie
100% xGF in 1 minutes
Lucic – Backlund – Nordstrom
51% xGF in 55 minutes
Dube – Ryan –
New Combination
~ Data from NaturalStatTrick, and Moneypuck
The Covid Situation
When I heard the Flames had a positive covid case this morning I honestly didn’t think this game would get played.
Given what happened in Vancouver, how could they risk it with a positive case regardless of negative tests all done within 24 hours.
Having said that I’d be the first to admit that I’m not a doctor, and certainly not privy to the details and the decision making process so I’ll trust they know what they’re doing.
With Montreal already having a bunch of games wiped out and creating a packed schedule I’m sure they didn’t want to bump any more, but if the team gets a case out of this imagine that mess?
Second Line Scoring
The lines were scrambled all night with the forward missing up front, and players being rotated through four centers.
But that didn’t stop what is essentially the second line from having themselves quite a night.
Dillon Dube who has been practiced on the fourth line, and started in that spot for the first rotation was noticeable in driving the play and setting up scoring chances. That Dillon Dube honestly looks like a Brayden Point projection, though he’ll have to add the consistency to get to that level.
Andrew Mangiapane was like a dog on a bone all night, tipping in a point shot for a goal and setting up Dube.
And Sean Monahan finally got in on the action with a three point night, and a Sean Monahan like goal from the slot; ironically set up by Johnny Gaudreau.
The top line started strong, but then wilted, so the game was essentially won on good team defense and a solid night by the second line.
Tough First for Markstrom
The Flames didn’t give up much on the night; only five high danger chances in all situations as a total, but were in a 2-2 tie going into the third largely because of two meh goals in the first period that Jacob Markstrom would likely like to have back.
The Tofoli goal was through a screen, but he has to get a blocker on it.
And the goal through traffic off the face off is a goal that usually isn’t given up if the goaltender is in the right position and not yielding the near side.
To his credit he settled in and was supportive in the win, but the game could have been more of a cruise without the first period gaffs.
Giordano Solid Again
Chris Tanev has been solid all season, to the point where bringing it up would get repetitive and somewhat boring.
So it’s not a shock that Mark Giordano is back to the Giordano we’ve all known since they were paired a number of games ago. Tonight he led all skaters with 20 minutes of ice time, had an expected goal split of 78% and wasn’t on the ice for a single scoring chance against.
But more importantly he was active on the pinch, physical and in the kitchen of Montreal’s power forward Josh Anderson all night.
The spirally out of control desperation plays we saw earlier this season are gone, replaced by a solid, consistent force.
Phantom Elbow
Speaking of Josh Anderson, that phantom elbow from I believe it was Michael Stone was hilarious.
The panel thought his own stick hit his chin, but I’m not even sure his stick made contact with him at any point. Either way there wasn’t a Flame elbow any where in the vicinity, so you have to wonder exactly what he was trying to accomplish.
Generally not a good idea to show up officials close to the playoffs, especially with divisional series on the way with the same referees that were assigned to the division all season.
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 31 Habs 20
Face Offs – Flames 61%
Powerplay – Flames 1/1 Senators 0/1
Player Stats:
Points – Sean Monahan had himself a night, scoring the second goal, and setting up two others for a three point night
Plus/Minus – Monahan and Chris Tanev were both +2 on the night.
Shots – Six different players had six shots on goal to pace the Flames including; Derek Ryan, Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk, Joakim Nordstrom, Elias Lindholm, Dillon Dube, Andrew Mangiapane, and Noah Hanifin.
Fancy Stats
This one wasn’t particularly close. The Flames five on five had 62% of the shot attempts with period splits of 72%/73% and 43%. High danger chances were 15-5 for the Flames and the expected goal split, as expected was at 68% for the Flames.
In all situations the Flames had 60% of the shot attempts, 75% of the high danger chances and an expected goal split of 76%. Unlike many a night this year, this wasn’t just about shot volume under Sutter, the Flames took the puck to the net often and their opponents struggled mightily in generating scoring chances.
Individually the Flames were led by Milan Lucic and Mikael Backlund with 82% and 76% respectively. Mark Giordano, Brett Ritchie, Chris Tanev, Andrew Mangiapane and Derek Ryan also had nights in the 70% range for CF%. At the bottom of the pile was Nikita Nesterov with 12% in only seven minutes of action. Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm and Michael Stone were all under 50%.
