So what excuse is it?
They’re just not good enough?
They’re just not fast enough?
Not in good enough shape?
Not sure what the consistency issue is but it has to stop if the Flames have any hope of getting into this playoff race and making something of this odd Covid season.
Tonight it was absolute face plant in the second period after a promising first twenty that was their undoing with all three key Senator goalscoming in the second frame in a 5-1 Ottawa victory.
The loss brings the Flames six game road trip to a completion with a 2-3-1 record.
Just not good enough.
The Line Up
One more game to go in Ottawa … With a convincing win on Saturday afternoon you’d think there wouldn’t be much change, but that doesn’t look to be the case. The fourth line has really struggled of late, so tinkering with the bottom end players certainly makes sense, as long as he leaves the new found chemistry (yes it’s been one game … against Ottawa) in the top line alone.
The Cage
David Rittich makes his fifth straight start posting a record of 2-1-1 in the four games coming in. Word has it that Jacob Markstrom is close, and given the seven days on the injury reserve have been fulfilled I think we likely see him against Ottawa on Thursday in Calgary or in Edmonton on Saturday night. With a bit of a rough ride in Ottawa Rittich now has a sub break even save percentage above average, joining Markstrom in that fact.
Jacob Markstrom
Save percentage above average -0.322
David Rittich
Save percentage above average -0.130
The Blueline
No changes on the blueline, which makes sense as the third pairing was actually pretty good in the last two games (a blow out loss and a blow out win). So that means Mark “Back to the Gym” Giordano with Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin with Chris Tanev and Juuso Valimaki with Nikita Nesterov. Honestly can’t believe how consistent Hanifin and Tanev have been; literally at 60% every single night.
Giordano – Andersson
43% xGF in 260 minutes
Hanifin – Tanev
61% xGF in 324 minutes
Nesterov – Valimaki
58% xGF in 202 minutes
Up Front
No changes to the top three lines, which are, of course, essentially the August bubble lines before Matthew Tkachuk went down. So Sean Monahan with Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm, Mikael Backlund with Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane, and Sam Bennett with Milan Lucic and Dillon Dube. A new fourth line with Joakim Nordstrom centering Dominik Simon and Josh Leivo.
Gaudreau – Monahan – Lindholm
67% xGF in 18 minutes
Tkachuk – Backlund – Mangiapane
59% xGF in 51 minutes
Lucic – Bennett – Dube
59% xGF in 42 minutes
Simon – Nordstrom – Leivo
New combination.
The Start
One of the better ones on the season, honestly.
The Flames had an iffy (even) five minutes to start the game, but then completely took over the game for the rest of the first period, but ended the stanza in a scoreless draw.
Often this season their starts have been their undoing, but not today.
Lots of chances. Lots of shots. Just no finish.
Rittich’s Performance
Clearly not all that good.
His teammates were garbage in the second period, but he didn’t help his cause with the giveaway leading to the back breaking third Ottawa goal.
Overall he made some good saves, but just not enough of the tough ones to carry the team the way he did in Toronto.
Clearly not his fault, he made some big saves after the blooper, but the iffy goal is hard to give him a pass in terms of sharing some fault.
Measuring Teams
A quick look at the team stats coming into this game would suggest without any further digging that the Flames are an upper third team in the league without a lot puck luck.
They ranked 9th in CF% and 9th in xGF% five on five … good for a solid playoff spot, and not a bubble or just out club like they currently find themselves.
Digging a little deeper though shows you a different story.
If you look at the same numbers in games that are within a goal (up a goal, down a goal, or tied) the true story starts to emerge as the Flames have been playing catch up for a good chunk of the season, playing a significant amount of time pushing the play to get back into games.
In the within a goal category the Flames are 23rd in CF% and 19th in xGF%, which to me anyway, better fits what we’re seeing on the ice.
Slow starts. Getting behind. Then racking up stats against teams feeling home and cool.
Counting Stats
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 28 Senators 36
Face Offs – Flames 55%
Special Teams – Flames 1/3 Senators 0/1
Player Stats:
Points – A point each from both Mikael Backlund and Milan Lucic, Lucic with the goal.
Plus/Minus – Only three players with an even night, Joakin Nordstrom, Dominik Simon and Chris Tanev. The rest? Negative baby!
Shots – Mark Giordano with six shots on goal to lead the Flames.
Fancy Stats
The underlying stats matched the eye test tonight with Calgary looking great in the first period, terrible in the second, and just not enough left in the tank to round the game out. Five on five the Flames had 43% of the shot attempts with period splits of 58%/27% and 50%. In terms of high danger chances the Flames had 43% with a 6/14 split. Calgary had 43% of the expected goal split.
In all situations the Flames had 43% of the shot attempts, 39% of the high danger chances and 37% of the expected goal split.
Not a good night.
Individually the Flames were led by Dominik Simon with 70%, though he only had five minutes and change of ice time. Mark Giordano was at 59%, Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson and Sean Monahan all had plus nights. Sam Bennett was at the bottom of the pile at 21%, his linemates weren’t that far behind.
