If you had high hopes for the Flames to make the playoffs you certainly didn’t pencil in back to back regulation losses in Ottawa after a split in Toronto.
Yet that’s exactly what we saw as the Flames blew a third period 1-0 lead before falling 3-1 to the Ottawa Senators on Wednesday afternoon.
The problem once again is offence as the team didn’t generate close to enough near the Ottawa cage to get things done at the NHL level. Tonight a total of three high danger chances in all situations, which is less than 1/3 of what the average NHL team manages on the average night.
The team is under .500 and in a boat load of trouble in making the playoffs.
Honestly you have to almost wonder if they’d be better off getting a clear sell signal prior to the NHL trade deadline coming up in 20 days.
The Line Up
The Flames haven’t been able to score; lighting the lamp for only one goal in their last two hockey games. So something had to change up front to breath life into things. No changes in roster players, but a blender in the forward ranks with more stability on the backend and in goal.
The Cage
Right back to Jacob Markstrom. Lots of debate about over working a starter, or needing two goaltenders, but lets face it the Flames are in win now mode until either they regain some breathing room, or fall completely out of it. It certainly goes without saying that a Jacob Markstrom on top of his game is the best path to putting a string together. Hopefully he gets back into a sustained groove soon.
Jacob Markstrom
Save percentage above average -0.006
David Rittich
Save percentage above average -0.001
The Blueline
No change on the blueline, though I think it’s time they moved that around too. Until we see Mark Giordano and Rasmus Andersson apart we will never know the answer to the question of what the problem is? Is it Giordano? Is it Andersson? Bad mix? Giordano looked good with Juuso Valimaki in limited action earlier this year, so why not? But as it stands it’s Noah Hanifin with Chris Tanev, Giordano with Andersson, and Nikita Nesterov with Valimaki.
Hanifin – Tanev
62% xGF in 506 minutes
Giordano – Andersson
42% xGF in 423 minutes
Nesterov – Valimaki
55% xGF in 276 minutes
Up Front
Only the fourth line remains intact from the loss on Monday night. Everyone else gets blendered, with Elias Lindholm seemingly taking the biggest hit in linemates. Matthew Tkachuk goes back to the line he had success with last season with Mikael Backlund and Andrew Mangiapane. Dillon Dube becomes the latest forward to attempt and unlock the five on five famine for Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau. Those moves leave Lindholm centering Milan Lucic and Sam Bennett. The fourth line stays the same with Derek Ryan between Zach Rinaldo and Josh Leivo.
Tkachuk – Backlund – Mangiapane
61% xGF in 67 minutes
Gaudreau – Monahan – Dube
44% xGF in 7 minutes
Lucic – Lindholm – Bennett
New Combination
Rinald0 – Ryan – Leivo
55% xGF in 8 minutes
~ Data from NaturalStatTrick, and Moneypuck
Monahan and Gaudreau Chance Generation
Not sure what happened to the Sean Monahan / Johnny Gaudreau combination when it comes to actually being dangerous five on five.
They had back to back seasons where they averaged between three and three and a quarter high danger chances per game, before reverting back to their two and change level in each of the last two seasons.
The two good years could be outliers, but in age and progression it sure shouldn’t have been.
Lately it’s been even worse as the duo have averaged roughly 1.5 in their last dozen games.
Tonight much of the same, they scored the team’s only goal with a five on five second period goal, but once again they only generated one high danger chance five on five all game.
Gio Puck Whiff
Yikes what a turn over in the first period.
You see broken sticks all the time leading to a two on one or a breakaway, nothing a player can do about that. But to take the puck off the wall on your own and somehow lose it between your legs for a breakaway was not a good look for the captain as far as in game mistakes go.
There is no question that Mark Giordano has taken a step back from his Norris Trophy winning season, it was inevitable both due to age and due to the fact that a career season is a career season.
But maybe he’s putting too much pressure on himself to do too much.
Nothing wrong with walking the last two years of his deal out as a solid 3/4 guy that isn’t trying to manufacture something out of nothing.
It didn’t end up in the back of the net, and Giordano scored in the second to I’m sure make himself feel better so all in all no harm done.
I can’t be the only one that notices that Giordano seems laboured in his movements this year, more scrambly … desperation mode most of the time.
Glass Crack
That broken pain of glass to start the second period was a perfect opportunity to demonstrate a team (and individual player’s) ability to get themselves ready to play.
The need to replace the glass caused a delay, and with that a change to routine, for both teams.
But the Flames were the club that came out of the delay on their heels and getting completely dominated for the next three shifts. It’s been a problem since the Colorado playoff series where the Flames were handed their lunch. The team just isn’t ready enough of the time to let their skill come to the forefront.
The broken pain was a perfect demonstration of this.
Unusual Suspects on the PK
One bright spot for the Flames is the penalty kill, as the group has now gone 11 straight chances and four games without giving up a powerplay goal against.
What’s different is the personnel in charge of killing penalties under Darryl Sutter.
Sam Bennett is 6th in shorthanded ice time (5th for forwards) under Sutter, usurping Andrew Mangiapane in the role. Sean Monahan has killed just over six minutes since the coaching change which is certainly a different look from what we’ve seen over the years.
Ironically Monahan leads all skaters with the lowest expected goals against in this time period with a xGA60 of 2.33, Sam Bennett is 3rd with 4.43.
Not a bad way to develop the defensive side of an offensive player to give them a diet of some penalty kill work.
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 29 Senators 31
Face Offs – Flames 39%
Powerplay – Flames 0/3 Senators 0/3
Player Stats:
Points – Each of Sean Monahan, Dillon Dube and Mark Giordano all picked up a point, Giordano with the goal.
Plus/Minus – Johnny Gaudreau and Dillon Dube were the only plus players for the Flames.
Shots – Mark Giordano and Juuso Valimaki both had five shots on goal on the afternoon.
Fancy Stats
The Flames had a miserable third period, surrendering the lead and finding a way to lose the game, but they did have the bulk of the five on five shot attempts with 56% on period splits of 66%/61% and 43%. Once again next to no high danger chances for the Flames as they lost that battle with a 3-4 split (43%) … only three on the night five on five. Ouch. Expected goal splits were basically even with Calgary at 49.2%.
In all situations, the Flames had 56% of the shot attempts, 30% of the high danger chances and 40% of the expected goal splits.
Individually the Flames were led by Mark Giordano and Derek Ryan at 70%. Josh Leivo, Zach Rinaldo and Chris Tanev were in the 60s. The only players under water on the night were Nikita Nesterov and Matthew Tkachuk. The Lucic/Lindholm/Bennett line had a rough night with under 30% in expected goal splits.
