I’m never one to get frustrated after a game and call a season over.
There are just far too many twists and turns in a season to ever call any game with so much math to come the game that ends a team’s chances.
Yet it’s hard not to look at this season series with the Ottawa Senators as the anvil dropped on both skates (feet) in a season gone terribly wrong. Early the Flames were chugging away fairly well, and hadn’t seen the Senators while the youngsters from Ottawa were finding their way and getting blown out every night by Calgary’s rivals.
By the time they finally met up with them Calgary had lost their way, and the Senators were emboldened by recent success against Montreal and Toronto.
Tonight wasn’t a poor effort. The Flames showed up and carried the play. But it was another example of a team that just can’t generate offence even when they have the puck for much of the contest, as once again their goal scoring came up light in a 2-1 setback on Monday night.
The loss puts them at 4-3-0 under Darryl Sutter; like the game not bad but just not good enough.
The Line Up
The consistency in rosters has been a staple for Darryl Sutter but that changes with the team losing 2-0 on Saturday night, and coming up on the wrong end of the scoreboard in two of their last three. A change in goal, and the first change we’ve seen in the forward group since Sutter took over six games ago.
The Cage
Jacob Markstrom coming off a huge third period on Friday night, where he stoned the Leafs and gave the Flames what seemed like an improbable 4-3 regulation win. Markstrom is huge the impact he can have in helping this team to go streaking and getting themselves back in the playoff race. Checkout the Calgarpuck article on Markstrom’s season and how his numbers shake out compared to his past two seasons in Vancouver. Markstrom’s Rollercoaster Season
Jacob Markstrom
Save percentage above average -0.006
David Rittich
Save percentage above average -0.001
The Blueline
No change on the blueline with the number one pairing holding with Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev, a second pairing of Mark Giordano and Rasmus Andersson, and a third pairing of Juuso Valimaki and Nikita Nesterov.
Hanifin – Tanev
62% xGF in 489 minutes
Giordano – Andersson
42% xGF in 407 minutes
Nesterov – Valimaki
54% xGF in 262 minutes
Up Front
Leaving the forward lines alone makes a lot of sense for three of the four forward lines. The Lindholm, Backlund and Ryan lines are going pretty well for the most part. It’s the second line with Sean Monahan centering Johnny Gaudreau and Brett Ritchie that is a black hole, and with that it’s not surprising to see the trio broken up. They have had an expected goal split of 36% through 74 minutes on the season, which is just terrible. The top line of Lindholm, Matthew Tkachuk and Dillon Dube has been coming on, getting chances and finally being rewarded. The Backlund line (between Milan Lucic and Andrew Mangiapane) does some heavy lifting, so the change comes on the fourth line where Sam Bennett moves up to play with Gaudreau and Monahan, with Zach Rinaldo coming in to take his spot.
Tkachuk – Lindholm – Dube
45% xGF in 191 minutes
Gaudreau – Monahan – Bennett
44% xGF in 86 minutes
Lucic – Backlund – Mangiapane
61% xGF in 143 minutes
Rinald0 – Ryan – Leivo
New Combination
~ Data from NaturalStatTrick, and Moneypuck
Attention to Detail
Darryl Sutter is probably getting his head around the mountain he has to climb.
Well intentioned players for the most part, but forgetting details that all too often end up in their own net.
In the first two Sutter games the Flames were playing fast, but also structured with an attention to detail; the key detail in this case being the high man allowing the defenseman to pinch and keep the offence on the attack.
Tonight in the first period the Senator’s lone goal was caused by a Mikael Backlund misread as he joined the pinch with Mark Giordano in, creating a two on one and a goal.
Calgary had the start, some good zone time, but a blown assignment and just like that … trailing in Ottawa.
The Drop Acid Test
The Ottawa Senators have figured strongly in the storyline of the Calgary Flames this season.
Other teams have had trouble with them, and other teams have fired coaches because of them (Montreal), but that doesn’t make the frustration any less real for the Calgary Flames and the weaklings of the Northern Division.
So playing the Senators with Darryl Sutter behind the bench was an interesting test of the team’s stomach lining. Would they be inconsistent and flat against a team they feel like they should beat as we saw under Geoff Ward? Or would they bounce back from a loss in Toronto with a fast moving well executed 60 minutes taking two points?
The answer was a little of both.
The Flames were the better team on the ice pretty much for the entire 60 minutes, but they didn’t get it done offensively, and were victimized on mistakes in there own zone.
Not a mail it in, flat performance, but also not a take the bull by the horns and get it done display.
Under Sutter
So who are the Flames under Darryl Sutter?
In the date range that has Sutter behind the bench the Flames are 16th in points percentage at .571.
They are 11th in terms of shot attempts five on five.
They are 14th in terms of expected goal splits five on five.
There are 17th in high danger chance splits.
They are 22nd in terms of PDO with a shooting percentage ranked 11th and a save percentage ranked 27th.
Folks this isn’t all that good a hockey team. Geoff Ward was upgraded with Darryl Sutter there is no doubt, but they’re still a long way from being a contending or even playoff competing hockey team.
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 36 Senators 23
Face Offs – Flames 63%
Powerplay – Flames 0/1 Senators 0/2
Player Stats:
Points – Three Calgary Flames picked up a point in the game; Johnny Gaudreau with the goal, Milan Lucic and Nikita Nesterov with the helpers.
Plus/Minus – Only Juuso Valimaki and Nikita Nesterov had plus nights.
Shots – Noah Hanifin led all shooters with five shots on goal.
Fancy Stats
One of those nights for the Calgary Flames. In terms of five on five shot attempts the Flames had 60% of the share, which sounds good doesn’t it? However they only had 43% of the high danger chances with a 6-8 split. Six high danger chances five on five just won’t get it done against NHL goaltenders and defenses. In terms of expected goal splits the Flames came out on top with 54%.
In all situations the Flames had 63% of the shot attempts, 50% of the high danger chances and an expected goal split of 57%.
Individually the Flames were led by Matthew Tkachuk at 74%, with Elias Lindholm, Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin, Juuso Valimaki and Nikita Nesterov all over 65%. Dillon Dube and Andrew Mangiapane also had solid nights. On the other end of the spectrum three players finished under 50%, Zach Rinaldo, Mark Giordano and Rasmus Andersson, as that second pair continues to sputter.
