When the Flames started their Ontario road trip with a split in Toronto, the road map to save the season seemed pretty simple; win both in Ottawa and get back into it.
Yeah that didn’t happen.
The Flames instead scored two goals in two games and dropped both Ottawa encounters in regulation time pretty much lynching their season.
So when they returned to home ice to host the Jets for three straight they honestly needed to sweep the set in order to right the wrong of the mistakes made in Ottawa.
Tonight despite a spirited effort, the Flames dropped their second of three to the Jets, leaving very little wiggle room.
The Flames scored first, had a decent effort and were on the wrong side of two pivotal calls, but that’s what you get when you air mail a month of your schedule … very little wiggle room.
The Line Up
An expected change in goal, no change on the blueline, and a bit of a blender again up front, which is somewhat surprising given the fact the Flames won the last time out against Winnipeg, regardless of the huge assist from goalie Laurent Broissoit. The lack of changes to the players not dressed with be somewhat of a jarring experience to some however, as Juuso Valimaki and Dillon Dube are still way up high munching popcorn.
The Cage
Back to Jacob Markstrom after sitting out the losing streak busting back to back start by David Rittch against Winnipeg on Saturday night. Markstrom will be the first to tell you that he hasn’t been great of late, as his save percentage still sits under .900 (.897) since Sutter took over. If Calgary has any chance of making a charge towards a playoff spot they’ll need him to be a difference maker, and not simply ok.
Jacob Markstrom
Goals Saved above average -4.7
David Rittich
Goals Saved above average +0.0
The Blueline
No changes on the blueline, which means Noah Hanifin lines up with Chris Tanev, Mark Giordano plays with Rasmus Andersson, and a third pairing of Nikita Nesterov with Michael Stone. Stone had a heck of a game back after a 13 month absence with 12+ minutes and an xGF% of roughly 75%. Nice to see his howitzer from the point as well to be honest. However, clearly they need to get Valimaki back into the mix as soon as possible, that’s where the future lies.
Hanifin – Tanev
60% xGF in 556 minutes
Giordano – Andersson
42% xGF in 466 minutes
Nesterov – Stone
89% xGF in 10 minutes
Up Front
The same 12 forwards dressed, which leaves Dillon Dube on the outside looking in. Some puzzling moves with that said however, as there appears to be a fourth line player three of the four lines, which could mean a good flow I suppose, but it could also make for four third lines. Elias Lindholm centers Matthew Tkachuk and Josh Leivo, Sean Monahan with Johnny Gaudreau and Brett Ritchie, Mikael Backlund between Joakim Nordstrom and Sam Bennett, and then a more complete line with Derek Ryan between Milan Lucic and Andrew Mangiapane.
Tkachuk – Lindholm – Leivo
48% xGF in 83 minutes
Gaudreau – Monahan – Ritchie
36% xGF in 74 minutes
Nordstrom – Backund – Bennett
82% xGF in 12 minutes
Lucic – Ryan – Mangiapane
65% xGF in 13 minutes
~ Data from NaturalStatTrick, and Moneypuck
Managing the Roster
I’m on the fence when it comes to the lines tonight, and who sits out.
I’d rather see young players play. I’d rather see the best players play.
But from a guy that thought a good 85% of the teams trouble wasn’t from coaching (Geoff Ward), but from a roster that just didn’t seem to have the mental strength or ability to prepare themselves and play a consistent brand of hockey.
With Sutter the coaching excuse is gone and here we are.
He gave them a game plan, and they played it well for a few nights, but then the inconsistencies started cropping up again and with that calling players out as a group, individually, and then the biggest weapon sitting players down.
I’m not a real fan of the Gaudreau thing, I think the player deserved more than that on his 500th game day, but I do think we are seeing Sutter arriving to a very similar view of this roster.
I’m 1/2 Tonight
A few years ago I think I was on a bleak streak of 11-12 or more goalie interference reviews that I got wrong. What made sense to me was just never the final call on the ice, and it wasn’t like I was leaning to one extreme or the other. Just always wrong.
This year we’ve seen a few called back for and against the Flames for kicking the puck in the net, including a memorable Johnny Gaudreau event earlier this season.
But when I saw the replay of the skate motion by Nate Thompson tonight I thought it was a 100% easy call. He literally moved his foot forward in a kicking motion to deflect the puck past Markstrom.
But it counts.
I was right on the Milan Lucic call. There was a tonne of circumstance around that play. He was pushed in, he was sort of tripped by Halebucyk which was also a factor, but with the goalie flat on his back I would have called that no goal.
But tough night for the Flames when it came to calls for sure.
The kicking motion was more of a non goal than the Lucic interference goal, but they lost both and that was likely the difference.
Boarding
I’m already whining so I may as well continue.
That was boarding, player was in a vulnerable position and Dubois finished the hit sending him head first into the boards but with no goal.
I was completely onboard with Milan Lucic getting the call the game before, in fact in this very space I was good with the extra two because he clearly finished things with a punch to the face.
But two days later and you miss the original call, and then only call the retribution tussle after not calling Pionk the game before for putting a cross check on Lucic?
I just don’t get it.
The Tkachuk Backcheck
Matthew Tkachuk isn’t a strong skater.
But he really underestimated himself on that first period backcheck along side Scheifele. In a road race he loses, but if he puts in the honest effort he rushes the play because Scheifele wouldn’t be able to open up and give himself the one timer.
Instead he tries to sell a penalty and makes the two on one a guarantee.
Not questioning character or effort, … but made the wrong call.
Don’t go for the silly outcome when a good hard backcheck likely would have nullified that opportunity.
Team Stats:
Shots – Flames 30 Jets 29
Face Offs – Flames 50%
Powerplay – Flames 1/4 Jets 0/2
Player Stats:
Points – Three players with a point with Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm all getting one each.
Plus/Minus – Only one player finished even on the night … Sean Monahan. The rest of the team were in the minus column.
Shots – Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan both finished with five shots apiece.
Fancy Stats
This wasn’t a 5-1 game in terms of play, as highlighted by Kelly Hrudey on the telecast. The Flames had 52% of the shot attempts five on five with period splits of 50%/45% and 66%. The five on five high danger chances fell 7-6 Calgary as well. Expected goal splits were 52% Calgary five on five.
In all situations the Flames had 55% of the shot attempts, 65% of the high danger chances and 63% of the expected goal split as clearly Connor Helebucyk was air tight compared to a bit of a rough night for Markstrom.
Individually, the Flames were led by Mikael Backlund with 63%, followed by the second straight solid Michael stone game at 62%. Both Nikita Nesterov and Joakim Nordstrom were also in the 60s as the bottom half of the roster continues to lead the way. At the bottom of the pile was Chris Tanev at 31%.
